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LEZ147 Expires:202312111515;;274861 Fzus51 Kcle 110844 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 344 am est Mon dec 11 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez146>149-111515- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 344 am est Mon dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely with a slight chance of rain showers this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 111131 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 631 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
A trough lingers over our region this morning before a ridge builds this afternoon through tonight as the core of the ridge moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the southern Appalachians. This ridge exits eastward on Tuesday before a cold front sweeps eastward through our region during the afternoon through evening. Behind the front, another ridge affects our region through at least Thursday as the core of the ridge moves from the north-central United States toward the central Appalachians.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

6:20 AM EST Update...

The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...

The axis of a shortwave through continues to move E'ward across our CWA this morning and should exit our region by this early afternoon. Behind the shortwave trough, a shortwave ridge should build from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes before cresting generally E'ward over our CWA tonight. At the surface, a trough lingers over our region this morning and will be followed by a building ridge this afternoon through tonight as the ridge's core moves from the Lower MS Valley to the southern Appalachians. This afternoon's highs will reach mainly the lower to mid 30's in NW PA and the mid to upper 30's in northern OH.
Lows overnight tonight should reach mainly the mid to upper 20's around daybreak Tuesday.

Lake surface to 850 mb temp differences near 13C to 16C and sufficient albeit shallow low-level moisture will allow primarily light lake-effect precip (LEP) to persist over and downwind of ~7C Lake Erie through most of tonight as lake- induced equilibrium levels remain below 10 kft above lake level.
The aforementioned weather pattern evolution will allow NW'erly mean low-level flow early this morning to back to WNW'erly by this early afternoon, to WSW'erly by this early evening, and then to SW'erly by the predawn hours of Tuesday morning.
Accordingly, LEP, mainly in the form of snow, will shift gradually NE'ward across the snowbelt and vicinity before shifting offshore around midnight tonight. Some rain may mix with snow during the late morning through afternoon hours of today. The greatest low-level moisture, greatest lake-induced EL's (near 5-8 kft above lake level), and steadiest LEP are expected this morning, especially generally east of Cleveland, where upstream moisture connections to Lake St. Clair and Lake Huron will target portions of the snowbelt for a time. Hi-res model forecast soundings suggest these bands of steadier lake- effect snow (LES) may contain bursts of heavy graupel as stronger low-level convergence along the bands' major axes may allow strong, maximized ascent at a cloud temp of ~-5C and the upper-reaches of lake-effect clouds should extend into the DGZ.
An overall weakening trend in LEP is expected this afternoon through tonight due, in part, to a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level dry air advection behind the aforementioned shortwave trough. Primarily fair weather is expected elsewhere, although light LES showers originating over Lake Michigan should continue to impact portions of NW and north-central OH through this morning. Fresh snow accumulations through tonight are expected to mainly be 1" or less, but 1-3" are expected in the higher terrain of our NW PA counties, south of I-90 and east of I-79.

The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward on Tuesday. Cyclonic W'erly flow aloft, embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances, and surface troughing follow. In addition, a weak cold front will approach from the western Great Lakes before sweeping E'ward through our CWA during the afternoon through early evening. A relatively clear sky, daytime warming, and low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should allow daytime highs to reach the lower to mid 40's. In addition, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft should allow SW'erly to W'erly surface gusts to reach 25-35 mph during the mid-morning through late afternoon. Of note, limited low-level moisture should permit a dry front passage. However, sufficient low-level CAA and moisture behind the front, and Lake Erie surface to 850 mb temp differences rebounding to 13C, should allow light lake- effect rain and/or snow showers to develop along/near the lakeshore in Erie County, PA toward nightfall. These showers should occur amidst cyclonic WSW'erly mean low-level flow and frictional surface convergence along the lakeshore.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Cold front crosses the region Tuesday evening with a marginal period of lake effect snow possible across NW PA through Wednesday evening.
Temperatures are not all that cold so any accumulations look to be light and likely only occurring in the higher terrain east of I-79.
High pressure builds over Ohio Wednesday into Wednesday night and will shut down the light lake effect snow that developed across NW PA. The dry weather across Ohio Wednesday will spread to NW PA Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Colder in the wake of the cold front Tuesday night with lows into the 20's at most locations. Not much of a warm up Wednesday with highs only into the mid 30'3 to around 40. Wind chills Tuesday night into Wednesday make it feel even colder with teens to 20's common.
Warming trend begins Thursday after a chilly Wedneday night with lows in the 20's. Sunny skies will boost temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Clear skies Thursday night will allow temperatures to dip back into the 20's at most locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Warmer temperatures and December sunshine will continue Friday into Saturday. Although the sun will likely be filtered on Saturday.
All this occurring ahead of the next cold front that attempts to move toward the region Friday night. This boundary likely stalls north of the Lake Erie and becomes the path for the next area of low pressure that emerges over the Upper Midwest. This once again appears to be more of a clipper type system that remains weak with minimal cold air in its wake Saturday night into Sunday. Limited moisture will be available for this system to lift with only an increase in cloud cover expected Saturday night into Sunday. A stronger upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon through Monday but much of its energy likely transitions to deepening low pressure off the Middle Atlantic Coast.
Maybe some weak lake effect snow develops Sunday night into Monday across NE OH into NW PA. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal averages through the long term.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Aloft, a disturbance should exit our region to the east by ~19Z/Mon. Behind the disturbance, a ridge builds from the western Great Lakes and then crests E'ward over our region between ~00Z and ~12Z/Tues. At the surface, a trough begins to exit E'ward after ~15Z/Mon and is followed by a ridge affecting our area through the end of the TAF period as the core of the ridge moves from the Lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians. Our regional surface winds around 5 to 15 knots back gradually from NW'erly to SW'erly through 12Z/Tues. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times, especially immediately downwind of Lake Erie (e.g. at KERI).

Widespread low clouds resulting in mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to clear our region generally from WSW to ENE between ~03Z and ~10Z/Tues. Scattered lake-effect showers, mainly in the form of snow, are expected downwind of Lake Erie in portions of northern OH and NW PA through ~04Z/Tues as mean steering flow for precip-producing lake-effect clouds backs gradually from NW'erly toward SW'erly. Visibility is expected to range between mainly VFR and IFR in precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lake-effect rain and/or snow showers in the snowbelt of far-NE OH and NW PA Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

MARINE
An upper level trough is passing overhead this morning. Expect increased cold advection through mid afternoon. Winds should continue at 15 to around 20 knots through the day. These speeds and a west to northwest fetch should keep waves 4+ feet into the evening. We will then see winds shift back to the southwest as a clipper type system sweeps across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect southwesterly winds to increase significantly ahead of a cold front that crosses the region Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Southwesterly winds approach 30 knots from the center of the lake to the east end Tuesday afternoon. As winds shift to the west-northwest speeds decrease a little bit but the cold advection will be more efficient bringing the remaining wind to the surface.
So expect wind speeds to remain in the 15-20 knot range through Tuesday night. Wind speeds and waves decrease through Wednesday evening, lingering longest from Cleveland to Ripley.

So with all this said we will allow the small craft advisories to gradually drop off from Sandusky Bay to Avon through the afternoon.
There likely will be a lull in wind speeds and wave heights Cleveland to Ripley overnight. This time period is short so we will keep it in effect and extend it through Wednesday evening. The west end of the lake to Avon will need to be added back into a small craft advisory starting around 09Z TUE then gradually end Tuesday evening into the overnight.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ146>149.

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