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LEZ147 Expires:202312010315;;671195 Fzus51 Kcle 302030 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 330 pm est Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>147-010315- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 330 pm est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Friday...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 010324 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1024 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mild southwest flow is expected through the night ahead of a low pressure and cold front that will impact the region Friday into Saturday. The next area of low pressure is expected to move northeast through the region Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
945 pm update...
With this late evening update, the one forecast change we made was to cancelled the Small Craft Advisory early as the gusty winds have decreased near the lakeshore and nearshore of Lake Erie. We have seen the regional radars starting to detect precip falling from the clouds this evening. These showers are likely not reaching the surface yet with the dewpoint depression currently around 20 degrees and the drier air in the lowest levels. Eventually it will take several more hours to moisten up the air column to allow the precip to reach the ground which will be towards daybreak in the morning. Plan for a little extra drive time if you have a morning commute getting around northern Ohio with wet roads expected to move in.

645 pm update...
We sure did have a beautiful and bright sunny late November day across the area and ended with a gorgeous sunset this evening. The weather will remain relatively quiet for most of tonight up to about 12z Friday morning. Around or shortly after daybreak Friday morning is when we will see very wet and gloomy weather conditions coming in with the next low pressure system.
Widespread rain showers will rapidly spread over the region from southwest to northeast around the morning commute time for northwest Ohio and mid to late morning for NEOH and NWPA. With that said, the near term forecast looks to be on track and do't any reason to make any changes to it at this time.

Previous discussion...
Gusty southerly winds will continue through the overnight as a cold front moves across the central Great Lakes. This boundary should stall somewhere near Lake Erie allowing low pressure to track northeastward along it. This low is currently closer to the Gulf of Mexico but will move to Illinois/Indiana by Friday evening. Expect to see increasing isentropic lift across the region ahead of this area of low pressure with rain spreading southwest to northeast across the region through Friday afternoon. The heaviest rainfall looks like it will remain north of the CWA but a quarter to half an inch of rainfall should occur. Even with the added moisture from the snow melting across NE OH into NW PA it should not lead to any flooding along area creeks and rivers.

Dry slot looks like it will impact the CWA Friday evening into Friday night with the coverage of the rain decreasing as it rotates off to the northeast. Temperatures may hold steady or slowly rise through Friday night.

Warmer tonight with the increased cloud cover and winds. Lows in the mid 30's to around 40. Cloud cover and rain should keep highs in the 40's for Friday afternoon. Friday night lows

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
By Saturday, low pressure departs to the east, though some light rain showers may linger across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Saturday. Low pressure moves northeast across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday, with the best chance of rain Sunday afternoon. Saturday through Sunday should be warm with temperatures running about 5-10 degrees above normal, higher towards east-central Ohio and lower towards Northwest Ohio. Lake effect precipitation may develop on the backside of the departing low with northwest flow advecting cold temperatures, though lake effect should still be all rain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Lake effect precipitation continues Monday through Monday night with daytime precipitation falling as rain, and overnight precipitation falling as rain/snow. High pressure briefly builds in on Tuesday with low pressure moving in from the northwest Tuesday night. This should bring another shot of light precipitation areawide, falling primarily as rain. More lake effect precipitation is expected for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday. High pressure moves in Wednesday night and Thursday. There's a small chance a clipper system scrapes the eastern part of the forecast area on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are expected this evening through at least 12z Friday for most if not all the TAFs across northern Ohio and NWPA. Aviation weather conditions will deteriorate after 12z Friday from west to east across the area with MVFR to low end MVFR ceilings and visibility impacts with widespread light rain showers moving across the region on Friday. Eventually most ares will fall to IFR ceilings by Friday afternoon with misty light rain keeping the visibility between 3sm and 5sm through the end of the TAF period or 00z Saturday.

The gusty south-southwest winds will subside this evening, but sustained winds will remain in the 8 to 15 knot range overnight into Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Friday evening into the overnight in scattered rain and low clouds. Scattered rain showers likely produce non-VFR conditions on Sunday.

MARINE
South to southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected to continue through this evening. Winds have been a bit lighter than previously expected, though am expected an uptick in wind speeds over the next hours, so the small craft advisory east of The Islands remains in effect through this evening. A cold front moves in from the northwest tonight, settling just north of Lake Erie through Saturday. Winds become south to southeast, though solidly remaining below 15 knots through then. Weak low pressure moves east across Lake Erie on Saturday.
Another low moves east across the southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley on Sunday. There's uncertainty on the exact track of this low, which would result in different wind/wave forecast. The most likely scenario at this point is for the low to track north of Lake Erie with west to southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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