Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand River, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:56PM Thursday December 5, 2019 1:08 PM EST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:53PMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201912052115;;318548 Fzus51 Kcle 051504 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 1004 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146-147-052115- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 1004 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of snow showers late this morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 43 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand River, OH
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location: 41.76, -81.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 051718 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1218 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

. 18z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update .

SYNOPSIS. A weak ridge of high pressure will build in from the southwest today. Weak low pressure moves east from the upper Midwest across the lower Great Lakes late tonight with a trailing cold front moving east across the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. Strong high pressure will move southeast to the Ohio Valley by Saturday morning and move east to the New England coast by Sunday. Low pressure will slowly move east across the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday with high pressure beginning to build in from the west on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Raised pops slightly to adjust for radar trends of lake effect snow. Have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory for Geauga County to expire given the expected downtrend of lake effect snow. Less than an inch of snow is still possible in Geauga County through the morning hours. Around an inch of additional accumulations possible in Ashtabula and Crawford, with an additional 2 inches possible in southern Erie County.

Original Discussion . Radar and satellite trends over the past several hours show a downward trend in lake effect snow intensity and coverage. This is expected to continue as drier air approaches from the west, decreasing the amount of moisture available. However, there is still a fair amount of snow expected through this morning, especially for inland parts of northwest Pennsylvania, where as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional snow can be expected. Lake effect snow is expected to end for the secondary snow belt by 12 UTC this morning and then slowly decrease in coverage from west to east this afternoon, ending for northwest Pennsylvania by 00 UTC Friday. In coordination, cloud cover will also slowly decrease from west to east, allowing many to finally see some sunshine this afternoon. Areas with the most sunshine, such as central and northwest Ohio, may have high temperatures eclipse 40, while northeast Ohio stays in the mid to upper 30s and northwest Pennsylvania in the low to mid 30s.

Very weak low pressure of around 1008 mb has developed over the northern Great Plains this morning and is expected to move east across the upper Midwest today and the lower Great Lakes tonight. Forcing with this low pressure system is weak and moisture content is rather low. However, it's enough to introduce the chance for rain/snow in northwest Pennsylvania late tonight into early Friday morning. Very light scattered rain showers may overspread parts of northeast Ohio and central Ohio late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. Light lake effect snow will follow for northwest Pennsylvania and far northeast Ohio after the low pressure's trailing cold front moves east across the area Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be near 40 late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon with a slow decline following the frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Light snow showers will linger in mainly NW PA on Friday night with lingering northwesterly flow ahead of the building surface high. Light snow is expected during the evening but moisture depth and ice content in the cloud will become questionable by morning as moisture strips away at 850mb. Sufficient low level lift and orographic effects may result in a light precipitation continuing overnight and will need to keep an eye on potential for light freezing drizzle before precipitation comes to an end. Elsewhere lows on Friday night will depend on where clouds clear out. Expecting the eastern half of the area to hold onto clouds while NW Ohio and possibly portions of north central Ohio attempt to clear out. As long as clouds clear in the west, lows in the lower 20s are possible while lows in the upper 20s will be more likely downwind of Lake Erie.

Ridging both at the surface and aloft will move overhead on Saturday. Southerly flow and warm advection will develop Saturday night into Sunday with cloudy skies returning. Good moisture advection is expected by Sunday night ahead of the next trough with chances of rain expanding overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Energy diving south out of Canada will lead to amplification of the upper level trough over the Plains Monday and Monday night. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop ahead of the deepening trough and track northeast through the Central Great Lakes. This will provide good support for a window of rain focused in the Monday afternoon through Monday night timeframe. Most areas will also see above normal temperatures in the 50s during this time. Low pressure will continue northeast into Quebec on Tuesday pulling a strong cold front with arctic origins east across the area. Models are favoring a westerly flow setting up across Lake Erie in the wake of this cold front which could signal a lake effect snow set-up for areas closer to Lake Erie. It is a little soon to have confidence in the orientation of the trough and favored snowfall areas but 850mb temperatures falling to near -20C will bring lake effect snows to portions of the area. There is high confidence in below normal temperatures for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/. Light lake effect snow showers have mostly come to an end with the exception of scattered flurries over northwest Pennsylvania through early afternoon. Most TAF sites across northern Ohio have either clear out of the clouds across far NW Ohio or have VFR ceilings across northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania around 4K feet. VFR will be the rule of thumb for aviation interest through this afternoon and much of the night. MVFR ceilings will return between 2K and 3K by early Friday morning lasting through at least early Friday afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 knots from the west may still be possible for TAF sites closer to the lakeshore. Otherwise westerly to southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon and tonight between 8 and 12 knots. Winds will slightly increase by Friday morning between 10 and 14 knots with some gusts up to 23 knots by the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible on Friday and Friday night with rain/snow showers. Non-VFR likely late Sunday through Monday with rain.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory has expired west of Vermilion and remains on track to expire from west to east through this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will back to westerly and slowly decrease. Waves of 4 to 7 feet will also gradually diminish today as high pressure expands east across Lake Erie. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to slide east across the lake tonight, pulling a cold front south behind it on Friday. Waves of 3 to 6 feet will develop again on Friday and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed east of Vermilion Friday afternoon and evening.

A large area of high pressure will build east across the lakes on Saturday, reaching the East Coast Sunday. A warm front will move north across Lake Erie on Sunday followed by a cold front on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again begin on Tuesday afternoon and continuing through the mid-week period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ146- 147.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Griffin/Saunders SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . KEC/Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 1 mi75 min W 25 G 29 37°F 38°F1015.9 hPa28°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 18 mi99 min WNW 24 G 27 39°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi75 min W 16 G 20 37°F 42°F1016.3 hPa29°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi84 minWNW 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast37°F24°F60%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN6N9N10N7N8N6N9N6N6N8N7NW8N6NW5NW4NW4W5NW7W8SW7W11W12SW11SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.