Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewster, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:08 AM EDT (08:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 11:32AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 345 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 345 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will move north this morning drawing warm and very humid air over the waters. This will bring patchy fog as well as showers and scattered Thunderstorms today through Thursday. A cold front then sweeps across the waters sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning. Dry weather and good vsby follows for Friday into the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA
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location: 41.77, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210741
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
341 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over southern new england moves offshore tonight
providing seasonable dry weather. A warm front moves across the
region Wednesday providing scattered showers and thunderstorms along
with increasing heat and humidity. A cold front Thursday will bring
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front
moves offshore Friday with dry weather to follow into the weekend
with mild days and cool nights along with comfortable humidity.

Near term through today
Warm front moves north into southern new england today bringing
increasing moisture and instability. Northeast radars show
several clusters of showers and tstms moving northeast toward
vt, as well as a few showers storms in the lower hudson valley
and south of long island moving toward SRN new england. Short
range models such as the high res WRF show some showers with the
warm air this morning, distinct from a second round of
convection moving west to east this afternoon evening. The
second round of precip is associated with a shortwave aloft and
surface trough moving through later today this evening.

Satellite trends show a broken layer of clouds with the
convection. This along with normal diurnal trends would suggest
the Sun will break through any cloud cover and generate the
necessary daytime heating. Sb CAPE climbs to 1500-2500 j kg, as
has been indicated in previous days, while LI values range from
down to -7. Winds aloft show 30 kt at 850 mb and 35 kt at 500
mb. Helicity in the 0-3 km layer shows 150 to 250, a little
higher than forecast in past days. Based on this we expect a
continued risk of strong damaging thunderstorm winds.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches today, with
with lift generated by the shortwave and trough on an unstable
airmass. As such, we continue to see a risk of downpours which
could cause poor drainage flooding, especially in areas of
thunderstorm training.

The best chance of strong winds and downpours would be in NRN ct
and central western ma. But aside from that relative comparison,
all parts of our forecast area are in play for strong tstms and
downpours.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Thursday
The shortwave and surface trough eventually move off to the east
tonight, but timing should allow for additional evening
convection with strong winds downpours. But this should diminish
by midnight. Models show no significant chance in airmass, and
dew points will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, so expect a
humid night with areas of fog and lows in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Closed low over james bay sweeps south and pushes a cold front
south into new england. After the morning fog burns off, daytime
heating will work on 16-18c 850 temps to warm the surface to
the mid 80s to around 90. Low level humidity remains in place.

Pw values diminish in the morning, but then climb back to near 2
inches in the afternoon. Instability parameters will not be as
beefy as today, but will show 500-1000 j kg in the interior and
1000-1500 j kg in ri SE mass. So expect showers and scattered
tstms especially in the afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid Thu with a risk for a few showers t-storms near and
south of the pike, shifting to the south coast Thu night
* cooler and less humid fri
* pleasantly warm days and cool nights this weekend into early next
week
details...

Thursday night...

instability diminishes after dark, better chance for showers
and a few t-storms may be Thu night along the south coast as
deeper moisture with pwat plume nearing 2 inches moves up along
the south coast ahead of a shortwave and along the stalled
frontal boundary which eventually pushes south and offshore by
late Thu night.

Friday...

there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly clearing occurs near
the south coast. It is possible clouds may linger into Fri near the
south coast with a risk of a few showers. Otherwise, more sunshine
likely north of the pike. Cooler post frontal airmass will yield
highs mainly mid 70s to around 80 with low humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...

ecmwf appears to be an outlier with development of closed low over
new eng this weekend into early next week and not really supported
by majority of its ensemble members. Trend is for mid level ridging
to develop across the NE late in the weekend into early next week,
with shower threat possibly increasing by Tue depending on timing of
next shortwave. Coolest days likely Sun Mon with high pres in the
maritimes with NE flow and will have to watch for some lower clouds
during this time period. Overall, looking at highs mostly in the 70s
and lows in the 50s this weekend into early next week, with highs in
the 60s possible along the east coast Sun mon.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Rest of tonight ... VFR.

Today...

vfr, with MVFR CIGS vsbys in showers and scattered
thunderstorms. A few showers are possible this morning in ct
and western ma, and are possible in all areas this afternoon and
evening. The best chance for showers tstms will be in northern
ct and western central ma in the afternoon and evening. A few
strong storms are possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy downpours.

Tonight...

MVFRVFR with scattered showers tstms especially in the evening.

Southwest winds gusting to 20 kt, especially over CAPE cod and
islands.

Thursday...

vfr MVFR in the morning...VFR in the afternoon with brief MVFR
in showers tstms possible.

Kbos terminal...

moderate to high uncertainty in timing and coverage of
showers tstms. A few showers storms possible mid to late
morning, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high uncertainty in timing and
coverage of showers tstms. A few showers storms possible after 7
am, but best chance will be mid to late afternoon.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today... Warm humid air moves back over the waters. South-
southwest winds build with some gusts to 20 kt. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some strong wind gusts
and downpours. Vsby 1-3 nm in downpours and patchy fog.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms diminish after 10 pm. Vsby
1-3 nm in patchy fog. Persistant south to southwest winds will
build waves to 5-6 feet, so we have issued a small craft
advisory for some of the southern waters.

Thursday... Winds continue from the southwest much of the day,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect another round of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Winds will remain less than
25 kt while seas will be around 5 feet on parts of the southern
waters.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb kjc
near term... Wtb kjc
short term... Wtb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Wtb kjc
marine... Wtb kjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 14 mi39 min 71°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 76°F71°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 27 mi84 min Calm 71°F 1018 hPa69°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi79 min S 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 1 ft1017.4 hPa (-0.3)67°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 34 mi69 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 77°F1017.9 hPa (-0.6)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi69 min 72°F 74°F1017.6 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA7 mi17 minS 310.00 miFair71°F70°F96%1017.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA12 mi13 minS 310.00 miFair71°F68°F90%1017 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi13 minS 510.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3Calm3NW46643NE64E6SE54SE4SE3CalmCalmS3S3CalmS3S3SW4S3
1 day agoSW6SW6SW5--SW564SW8SW9SW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm3E543SW6S5S5S3S4Calm4S33SW5SW4SW7S76

Tide / Current Tables for Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Wed -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:34 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:55 AM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:59 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:19 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.9-0.1-1-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.60.31.21.81.91.71.20.4-0.7-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.10.81.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.