Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewster, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday July 9, 2020 5:01 AM EDT (09:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 416 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers with tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers with tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun through Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strengthening low pressure will move up along the carolina coast late today and pass near cape cod on Saturday bringing heavy rain. A cold front will cross the waters early Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA
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location: 41.77, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 090807 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 407 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Hot and humid weather is on tap today along with an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm possible, but the majority of the region will remain dry. A coastal low with tropical moisture is being given an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical or sub- tropical system later today or tonight from the National Hurricane Center. This will likely impact the region late Friday into Saturday with heavy rain, potential flooding, and perhaps isolated severe weather which all depend on the exact track and strength of the system. Beyond Saturday things remain unsettled with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

4 AM Update .

* Hot & Humid with Heat Indices Between 95 and 99 this afternoon

Deep low level moisture in place has resulted in low clouds across portions of the south coast with another area across central MA/northeast CT early this morning. The strong July sun angle will erode most of these low clouds by mid to late morning, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon.

The main story will be the hot and humid weather that is in store for the region today. Upper level ridge builds across southern New England with 925T between +22C and +24C. This combined with partly to mostly sunny skies should yield high temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. This combined with dewpoints around 70 will result in heat index values between 95 and 99 degrees away from the immediate coast. While it appears that conditions will fall just below heat advisory criteria, it will be a hot and humid day for sure.

The upper level ridging in place will result in most of the region remaining dry today, but there is an isolated shower/t-storm risk this afternoon. Modest instability will develop with capes expected to increase to between 1500 and 2500 J/KG. While lack of synoptic forcing/upper level ridging will limit areal coverage and intensity of the convection, isolated showers and t-storms are still expected to develop this afternoon. This will mainly be induced by terrain and sea breeze interactions with the best chance near and north of the MA Turnpike, where instability should be highest. The severe weather threat will remain low given very weak wind fields, but very localized torrential rainfall will be possible with any storm given slow movement.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

Tonight .

Any isolated shower/t-storm threat will diminish by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating and lack of synoptic scale forcing. Otherwise, we do expect low clouds to expand across the region along with patches of fog as the boundary layer cools. Given the high dewpoints in place, low temps will only drop into the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday .

All the focus will turn to low pressure that is currently just east of the North Carolina coast. This system is expected to gradually become better organized later today and tonight. The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this system becoming tropical or a sub-tropical cyclone to 80 percent. The system/s track and timing remain uncertain. The American models seem to be faster and also further west than the International guidance. That being said, still expect the main impacts in our region to hold off until Friday night. Nonetheless, the system/s outer circulation coupled with high Pwats will trigger bands of showers with locally heavy rainfall and perhaps isolated thunder during the day Friday. This will keep high temps mainly in the 80s Friday, but it will remain humid.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Tropical humidity persists through the weekend

* Thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday night and Saturday morning could lead to flash flooding. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

* Typical summer pattern next week with warming temperatures and isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances each day.

Details .

Latest guidance continues to highlight a broad upper level trough over the eastern U.S. through the at least the first half of next week. This provides a persistent warm and moist southerly flow from the south keeping things sultry with oppressive humidity (dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) and periodic showers and thunderstorms. Toward mid week things point a building ridge may bring drier conditions and warmer temperatures.

The most impactful disturbance will be the area of showers currently off the South Carolina coast. The NHC has monitored what is currently Invest 98L since its time over the Gulf of Mexico and now gives it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone before it eventually crosses southern New England late Friday/Saturday. While models are in good agreement that the system will track up the east coast, when it comes to the low center's path across our region, things are decidedly less clear ~48 hours out. While much of the guidance has trended further west as of late which would place us on the eastern periphery of the heaviest QPF axis, placement of the heaviest rain remains uncertain. Latest 00Z EC guidance, while still a slower solution than the NAM/GFS, shifted back east. At this point rather than follow the flip flop of the deterministic runs, we'll focus on ensemble guidance which indicates that the best chance for the heavier rain to be over western or central MA, and RI into CT. At the moment it's looking like the overnight Friday and Saturday morning time frame pose the best chance for impactful rain and storms. Stay tuned as these timing and placement details will come into better focus over the next 24 hours.

The greatest threat will be from localized flash flooding under the heavier downpours. PWATs approach 2.5" which would be 3-4 SD above normal for July. Thinking that 1-2 inches is possible anywhere in southern New England with localized higher amounts. Additionally, we can't rule out a few isolated severe thunderstorms which could spawn an isolated tornado. Low level wind fields are quite favorable for strong rotation (0-1 km shear >25 kts and 0-1 km storm relative helicity >150 m2s2). As for marine/coastal impacts, they should be limited to an increased risk of rip currents through the weekend, especially along south coastal beaches. Coastal flooding is not expected to be an issue given the lesser threat from wind and low astronomical tides.

Sunday through Tuesday unsettled weather remains in the forecast under cyclonic flow as additional lobes of energy rotates through the broader meridional flow. Not a washout by any means, but expect chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon/evening through at least Tuesday. Toward mid week ridging should build back in which may signal a warm up; the Climate Prediction Center has placed southern New England in an excessive heat outlook for late next week and beyond.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update .

Today . High confidence. Low clouds near the south coast with another area across interior MA/northern CT was resulting in low end MVFR-IFR ceilings early this morning. The strong July sun angle should erode most of these low clouds by mid-late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate today. Isolated showers/t-storms are possible this afternoon, but areal coverage will be limited and most of the region will remain dry. SSW winds of 5 to 10 knots with seas breezes expected to develop along portions of the eastern MA coast by afternoon.

Tonight . Moderate confidence. Cooling boundary coupled with deep low level moisture will allow MVFR-IFR conditions to overspread much of the region from south to north as the night wears along.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Conditions may temporarily improve to mainly VFR Fri morning as low clouds/fog patches burn off. However, the threat for bands of showers and perhaps isolated t-storms will increase during the day Friday. This will likely lower conditions back towards MVFR thresholds in many locations by late afternoon. SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze will develop by 15z or 16z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA, TSRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE. Today and tonight . High confidence. Upper level ridging will keep winds/seas below SCA thresholds.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Low pressure off the North Carolina coast is expected to become better organized and the NHC is giving an 80 percent probability that it becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone as it lifts north northeastward. Timing and intensity remain uncertain, but SCA seas are expected to develop during the day Friday across our southern waters. Bands of showers and isolated t- storms may also begin to impact the region especially as the day wears along.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers, thunderstorms likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BW NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Frank/BW MARINE . Frank/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTM3 9 mi74 min SW 4.1 G 8 70°F 1014.7 hPa
44090 14 mi35 min 67°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi152 min SW 12 G 16 70°F 1014.7 hPa70°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 27 mi77 min SSW 1.9 71°F 1015 hPa71°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 34 mi44 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 70°F 72°F1015.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi44 min 70°F 71°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA7 mi70 minSW 710.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1015.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA12 mi66 minSW 1010.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1014.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi66 minSSW 89.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F69°F100%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE4SE5SE5SE5SE7S6SE8S10S7S10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NE7NE7NE9
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NE8NE6NE6E8E4CalmCalmSE445S3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 AM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:26 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:19 PM EDT     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     1.71 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0.1-1-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.70.21.11.72.121.60.7-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.40.51.21.61.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.