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Marine Weather and Tides Brewster, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:13AM

Sunset 8:18PM

Thursday July 9, 2020 5:01 AM EDT (09:01 UTC)

Moonrise 11:23PM

Moonset 9:36AM

Illumination 84%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 090807 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 407 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Hot and humid weather is on tap today along with an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm possible, but the majority of the region will remain dry. A coastal low with tropical moisture is being given an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical or sub- tropical system later today or tonight from the National Hurricane Center. This will likely impact the region late Friday into Saturday with heavy rain, potential flooding, and perhaps isolated severe weather which all depend on the exact track and strength of the system. Beyond Saturday things remain unsettled with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

4 AM Update .

* Hot & Humid with Heat Indices Between 95 and 99 this afternoon

Deep low level moisture in place has resulted in low clouds across portions of the south coast with another area across central MA/northeast CT early this morning. The strong July sun angle will erode most of these low clouds by mid to late morning, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon.

The main story will be the hot and humid weather that is in store for the region today. Upper level ridge builds across southern New England with 925T between +22C and +24C. This combined with partly to mostly sunny skies should yield high temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. This combined with dewpoints around 70 will result in heat index values between 95 and 99 degrees away from the immediate coast. While it appears that conditions will fall just below heat advisory criteria, it will be a hot and humid day for sure.

The upper level ridging in place will result in most of the region remaining dry today, but there is an isolated shower/t-storm risk this afternoon. Modest instability will develop with capes expected to increase to between 1500 and 2500 J/KG. While lack of synoptic forcing/upper level ridging will limit areal coverage and intensity of the convection, isolated showers and t-storms are still expected to develop this afternoon. This will mainly be induced by terrain and sea breeze interactions with the best chance near and north of the MA Turnpike, where instability should be highest. The severe weather threat will remain low given very weak wind fields, but very localized torrential rainfall will be possible with any storm given slow movement.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

Tonight .

Any isolated shower/t-storm threat will diminish by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating and lack of synoptic scale forcing. Otherwise, we do expect low clouds to expand across the region along with patches of fog as the boundary layer cools. Given the high dewpoints in place, low temps will only drop into the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday .

All the focus will turn to low pressure that is currently just east of the North Carolina coast. This system is expected to gradually become better organized later today and tonight. The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this system becoming tropical or a sub-tropical cyclone to 80 percent. The system/s track and timing remain uncertain. The American models seem to be faster and also further west than the International guidance. That being said, still expect the main impacts in our region to hold off until Friday night. Nonetheless, the system/s outer circulation coupled with high Pwats will trigger bands of showers with locally heavy rainfall and perhaps isolated thunder during the day Friday. This will keep high temps mainly in the 80s Friday, but it will remain humid.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Tropical humidity persists through the weekend

* Thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday night and Saturday morning could lead to flash flooding. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

* Typical summer pattern next week with warming temperatures and isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm chances each day.

Details .

Latest guidance continues to highlight a broad upper level trough over the eastern U.S. through the at least the first half of next week. This provides a persistent warm and moist southerly flow from the south keeping things sultry with oppressive humidity (dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) and periodic showers and thunderstorms. Toward mid week things point a building ridge may bring drier conditions and warmer temperatures.

The most impactful disturbance will be the area of showers currently off the South Carolina coast. The NHC has monitored what is currently Invest 98L since its time over the Gulf of Mexico and now gives it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone before it eventually crosses southern New England late Friday/Saturday. While models are in good agreement that the system will track up the east coast, when it comes to the low center's path across our region, things are decidedly less clear ~48 hours out. While much of the guidance has trended further west as of late which would place us on the eastern periphery of the heaviest QPF axis, placement of the heaviest rain remains uncertain. Latest 00Z EC guidance, while still a slower solution than the NAM/GFS, shifted back east. At this point rather than follow the flip flop of the deterministic runs, we'll focus on ensemble guidance which indicates that the best chance for the heavier rain to be over western or central MA, and RI into CT. At the moment it's looking like the overnight Friday and Saturday morning time frame pose the best chance for impactful rain and storms. Stay tuned as these timing and placement details will come into better focus over the next 24 hours.

The greatest threat will be from localized flash flooding under the heavier downpours. PWATs approach 2.5" which would be 3-4 SD above normal for July. Thinking that 1-2 inches is possible anywhere in southern New England with localized higher amounts. Additionally, we can't rule out a few isolated severe thunderstorms which could spawn an isolated tornado. Low level wind fields are quite favorable for strong rotation (0-1 km shear >25 kts and 0-1 km storm relative helicity >150 m2s2). As for marine/coastal impacts, they should be limited to an increased risk of rip currents through the weekend, especially along south coastal beaches. Coastal flooding is not expected to be an issue given the lesser threat from wind and low astronomical tides.

Sunday through Tuesday unsettled weather remains in the forecast under cyclonic flow as additional lobes of energy rotates through the broader meridional flow. Not a washout by any means, but expect chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon/evening through at least Tuesday. Toward mid week ridging should build back in which may signal a warm up; the Climate Prediction Center has placed southern New England in an excessive heat outlook for late next week and beyond.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update .

Today . High confidence. Low clouds near the south coast with another area across interior MA/northern CT was resulting in low end MVFR-IFR ceilings early this morning. The strong July sun angle should erode most of these low clouds by mid-late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate today. Isolated showers/t-storms are possible this afternoon, but areal coverage will be limited and most of the region will remain dry. SSW winds of 5 to 10 knots with seas breezes expected to develop along portions of the eastern MA coast by afternoon.

Tonight . Moderate confidence. Cooling boundary coupled with deep low level moisture will allow MVFR-IFR conditions to overspread much of the region from south to north as the night wears along.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Conditions may temporarily improve to mainly VFR Fri morning as low clouds/fog patches burn off. However, the threat for bands of showers and perhaps isolated t-storms will increase during the day Friday. This will likely lower conditions back towards MVFR thresholds in many locations by late afternoon. SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze will develop by 15z or 16z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA, TSRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE. Today and tonight . High confidence. Upper level ridging will keep winds/seas below SCA thresholds.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Low pressure off the North Carolina coast is expected to become better organized and the NHC is giving an 80 percent probability that it becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone as it lifts north northeastward. Timing and intensity remain uncertain, but SCA seas are expected to develop during the day Friday across our southern waters. Bands of showers and isolated t- storms may also begin to impact the region especially as the day wears along.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers, thunderstorms likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BW NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Frank/BW MARINE . Frank/BW

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CHTM3	9 mi	74 min	SW 4.1 G 8	70°F			1014.7 hPa
44090	14 mi	35 min			67°F	1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	22 mi	152 min	SW 12 G 16	70°F			1014.7 hPa	70°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	27 mi	77 min	SSW 1.9	71°F			1015 hPa	71°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA	34 mi	44 min	SW 5.1 G 8.9	70°F	72°F		1015.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	36 mi	44 min		70°F	71°F		1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA

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5 AM

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Last 24hr

S6 G12

S6 G11

S4 G9

S5 G13

S8 G16

S8 G14

S10 G17

SW9 G14

SW8 G12

S11 G17

SW10 G17

S9 G14

SW9 G16

SW7 G14

SW9 G12

SW7 G10

SW7 G12

SW6 G10

S4 G8

S6 G10

SW6 G10

SW6 G10

SW4 G7

SW4 G8

1 day ago

SE4 G7

SE4

E5

SE5 G8

S3 G6

E5 G8

SE6

SE7 G13

SE9 G12

SE5 G10

SE7 G12

SE8 G14

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SE4 G11

SE6 G11

SE8 G12

S7 G12

S6 G9

S5 G11

S7 G10

S8 G12

S6 G12

S7 G12

2 days ago

S5 G9

S7 G12

S4

SW4

W4 G7

NW8 G11

NE7 G10

N6 G10

NE7 G12

NE8 G16

NE8 G15

NE9 G15

NE11 G17

NE10 G14

NE12

E7 G10

E3

E5

E4 G9

E6 G9

SE4

SE6 G10

SE5 G8

SE4 G7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA	7 mi	70 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	70°F	68°F	93%	1015.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA	12 mi	66 min	SW 10	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	71°F	88%	1014.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA	18 mi	66 min	SSW 8	9.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	69°F	69°F	100%	1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQX

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

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5

SW5

SW6 G16

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SW7 G18

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SW13 G21

6 G18

SW10 G19

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1 day ago

Calm

E4

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S10 G16

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Calm

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

NW4

NE7

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NE9 G15

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NE12 G17

NE10 G15

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Calm

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SE4

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S3

S3

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Tide / Current Tables for Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA

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