Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hyde Park, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Update as of 1005 pm EDT...Some adjustments on the timing of showers coming in from the west to southwest. Some showers are popping up over central NY and the Catskills. These showers will spread eastward from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires south between 10 pm and 1 am. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis guidance has Showalter stability indices above zero over the forecast area and the closest cloud to ground strikes are over western PA. We kept thunderstorms out of the forecast.
The low pressure system will pass well to the south of the region but decent isentropic lift will occur north of the wave interacting with a mid level short-wave, as PWATS briefly increases greater than an inch. The timing of the showers was adjusted based on the latest few runs of the 3-km HRRR and radar trends. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern Dacks and southern Greens.

Previous discussion...

Dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England come to an end tonight as chances for rain showers increase from 30 percent to 80 percent across the eastern Catskills to locations south and east of I-90. Based on latest high resolution forecast model trends, a line of rain showers stays south of the Adirondacks for tonight and tomorrow morning where only 15 to 30 percent chances is in the forecast for this timeframe. Forecast confidence is highest for locations south and east of Albany to see rain showers beginning late tonight (10 PM to 2 AM) and moving through overnight.
Rain showers are likely (greater than 75 percent) to bring accumulations between a tenth up to a quarter of an inch with a few locations potentially seeing a moderate to heavy quick burst of rainfall overnight up to 0.4 inches. As these showers are forecasted to quickly move out of eastern New York and western New England tomorrow morning (between 8 AM and 11 AM), we're looking to see a dry afternoon and evening in store as surface high pressure builds in from the north and continues into Sunday. This will also depend on how fast the low pressure system moves through, so a few lingering light rain showers (less than 30 percent chance) could be in store for the Mid-Hudson Valley through noon tomorrow. One more day of cool temperatures tomorrow in the 60s and low 70s, with locations that see more cloud coverage during the afternoon hours stick around in the 60s. Low temperatures range in the 50s Saturday night into Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A mostly dry day is in store for Sunday as surface high pressure builds in to the Northeast helping limit shower activity for eastern New York and western New England to less than 30 percent for Sunday morning and early afternoon. The surface low pressure system that brought the rain showers on Saturday morning heads off the Atlantic coast and a mix of sun and clouds is in store for Sunday with high temperatures remaining cool in the 60s for higher terrain locations and in the 70s in the valleys. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning range in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday through Tuesday: Dry conditions are in store for Monday with chances increasing (40-50%) for rain showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms (5 to 14%) associated with a surface low pressure system moving to our south and east Tuesday afternoon and early evening. High temperatures begin to gradually warm up to seasonal with highs ranging in the upper 70s and low 80s. Low temperatures also gradually warm up with Tuesday morning ranging in the 50s and 60s and on Wednesday morning ranging in the 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday: Lots of uncertainty as we head into the midweek timeframe as an upper level trough could bring chances (50 to 75 percent) for rain showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New England. Depending on ensemble forecast trends, Thursday is looking the most favorable with conditions to develop thunderstorms with Wednesday being more favored for rain shower activity. Summer-like heat returns for Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s across eastern New York and western New England. Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models 4.3 data shows between a 60 and 80 percent chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Thursday across the Mid-Hudson Valley and Greater Capital District. Muggy conditions also returns so feel-like temperatures on Thursday are going to range in the low to high 90s across eastern New York and western New York, especially in cities and urban locations. Remember to stay hydrated and if spending time outdoors to take frequent breaks from the sun during peak heating hours (10 AM to 3 PM).

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions will continue until 04Z-06Z/SAT for KALB/KPSF/KPOU, as showers evolving into a period of stratiform rainfall will move in. Expect ceilings/visibilities to fall into the low VFR/high MVFR range 04Z-8Z/SAT at these sites, and then the rain ahead of the wave moves into KGFL. A period of widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible between 08Z-16Z/SAT before ending. Some IFR cigs are possible at KPSF between 10Z-16Z/SAT. The rain should end around 16Z/SAT with lingering high MVFR/low VFR cigs for the afternoon. The winds will be variable in direction at 5 KT or less tonight, and then will become north to northeast at 4-8 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.