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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 903 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this evening. Slight chance of rain late. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 903 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week.

FXUS61 KALY 100557 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1257 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will impact the region Sunday through Monday with precipitation starting out as rain, locally heavy, then changing over to wet snow. Gusty winds will accompany this storm with some gusts up to 40 mph. In the wake of this storm, a few lake effect snow showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1257 AM EST...Upper level ridging, now centered to the east over Atlantic Canada, continues to depart eastward.
Meanwhile, a strong positively tilted upper level trough is in place over the Mississippi Valley and it is heading eastward. At the surface, the strong surface cold front ahead of this trough extends from Ontario and the Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South.

Our region has been located within the southerly flow ahead of this front, both at the low levels and aloft. This mild southerly flow is keeping temps elevated even at this late hour, with many areas still in the 40s to low 50s. Some sheltered areas of the high terrain have been able to fall into the 30s, but temps won't be falling much through the rest of the overnight hours, as a persistent south to southeast wind is expected through the overnight hours. By daybreak, temps will range from the upper 30s over the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 40s in the Capital Region and Hudson Valley.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds for much of the area. Some breaks are occurring in far southeastern areas and some patchy fog did develop in sheltered areas. However, increasing clouds and wind should dissipate any lingering fog shortly. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the rest of the overnight hours. Based on the latest CAMs, some light rain may start to spread towards the Adirondacks for the late night hours and towards daybreak. Most of this should be light, as the steadier and heavier precip will wait until the daylight hours.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Flood Watch in effect for the Capital Region and points south and east from Sunday afternoon through Monday

Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of Herkimer, Hamilton and Bennington counties from Sunday evening/night through Monday

Our storm system for Sunday and Monday looks to be taking a slightly eastward shift in its storm track. This has resulted in a slightly decreasing threat for heavy rain, but an increased threat for a heavy, wet snowfall, even across many valley areas.

A cold front will begin to advance eastward across the state on Sunday as an upper-level trough goes from a positive to a neutral tilt upstream across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Increased lift along and ahead of the front will result in the development of a widespread rainfall. Rain for much of the day will be light to occasionally moderate in intensity. It will be mild ahead of the front with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. There will be a southerly breeze as well, especially for areas south and east of the Capital District, where a few gusts up to 35 mph will be possible during the afternoon hours.

By Sunday night, the cold front will begin to cross eastern New York and approach western New England. The upper trough will become negatively tilted and this will result in secondary surface low development along the front across the mid-Atlantic states. This surface low will quickly intensify as it lifts northeastward along the coast toward eastern New England. Our region will be located within the right entrance region of a 160+ kt upper-level jet and this will support plenty of lift for continued widespread precipitation on the cold side of the system.

Based on the latest track of the surface low, bands of heavy rainfall will mostly remain to the east of our area, though some pockets of heavy rain are still possible for areas mainly south and east of Albany. This is where rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches remain possible and also a continued flood threat. As a result, we have trimmed some areas out of the flood watch which includes Schenectady, Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties.
Will monitor trends to see if any additional areas may be able to be trimmed out. Areas within a flood watch still have the potential for some minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas and some river flooding is also still possible. See more in the hydrology section below.

As colder air builds in behind the cold front Sunday evening, temperatures will fall to the lower to mid-30s where precipitation will change over to a heavy, wet snowfall. This will occur first across western areas and the higher elevations (later in the valleys) and gradually progress eastward overnight into Monday morning. Strong mid-level frontogenesis should result in some bands of heavier snowfall where rates, per latest SPC HRRR, could reach 0.5 inches per hour. However, the best lift will not intersect the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) per forecast soundings. This should limit snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour for most areas. Forecast soundings also suggest that it is possible the low- level cold air may undercut the warmer, above freezing air aloft (as the main trough axis is lagging behind this system) which could produce a brief transition to sleet before changing over to snow. There was not enough confidence to add sleet to the forecast but is worth noting at this time, but no impacts from sleet is expected.

With more QPF associated with snow versus rain, snowfall totals have increased in some areas. This had led to the Winter Storm Watch to be expanded to include southern Herkimer and Bennington counties. Areas within the Winter Storm Watch could see between 5 and 10 inches of snow. The heavy, wet nature of this snow combined with gusty winds could result in some downed trees and wires resulting in some power outages. Some light to moderate accumulations are possible elsewhere, including valley areas, which could lead to some hazardous travel for the Monday morning commute. Some winter weather advisories will be needed in later outlooks.

As the surface low moves into Maine by Monday afternoon, snowfall will gradually taper off from south to north, though some lake-effect and upslope snow showers are expected to continue into Monday evening for areas outside of the Hudson Valley. It will be much cooler on Monday with highs staying in the 30s. Gusty winds will be rather widespread on Monday with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and Berkshires. While we should remain under wind advisory criteria, it would be ideal to ensure any outdoor objects, especially holiday decorations, are properly secured.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
After an unsettled start to the week, more tranquil conditions are expected over the extended period.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, some light snow showers, mainly confined to the Western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, will linger on the back side of Sunday night/Monday's storm continues to track further away from the region to the north.
Additional accumulations to what is expected to fall Monday will be maximized to just a few hundredths of an inch. The rest of the area will remain dry throughout the day Tuesday as heights briefly rise with a surface high dominating to the south.
Another brief period of minor precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper-trough and parent surface low crosses overhead on its easterly track through southeastern Canada.
With this system comes a series of moisture-starved cold fronts that will induce some light, lake- enhanced snow showers that will look to be confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Western Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills and southern Greens. A broad area of high pressure encompassing much of the eastern CONUS will then build in to reinforce dry weather for the remainder of the week.

Despite the progression of a couple cold fronts Tuesday night into Wednesday, temperatures throughout the duration of the long term period look to remain relatively mild for mid- December. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 30s to low 40s with low to mid 20s and pockets of upper 20s (+1500 ft) in the mountains. Things will cool down a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday upon the cool fropas with expected highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s and cooler above 1500 ft. Then, with the high well developed and westerly/southwesterly flow dominating, Friday and Saturday will bring the return of 30s and 40s across the region.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z Monday.....

Primary aviation concerns for the ALY terminals as a potent and dynamic late Autumn storm system approaches the region includes:

* Widespread MVFR to LIFR cigs and/or visibilities associated with the rain beginning Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

* Low level wind shear (LLWS) risks/potential tonight through Sunday morning.

Deteriorating weather conditions to aviation operations will take place over the next 6-9 hours as an impending multi-faceted storm system closes in on the forecast area. The main concern for tonight will be patches of MVFR visibilities due to low dewpoint depressions, MVFR to LIFR cigs, and the threat for low level wind shear (LLWS) as winds 2,000 feet AGL increases between 30-40 kts.
The threat for LLWS is greatest over all of the TAF sites outside of KALB, and the timeline will be from tonight through Sunday morning.
Currently, VFR conditions are taking place at KALB, KGFL, and KPSF.
However, KPOU is experiencing MVFR visibilities. Clouds are expected to increase and lower in elevation through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. Sunday morning, rain associated with this dynamic storm system will begin to overspread the terminals from southwest to northeast. Upon the rain's arrival, flying conditions from visibilities and/or ceilings are expected to range between MVFR to LIFR. MVFR to LIFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of the 06z TAF cycle. Rain could become moderate to heavy at times from the afternoon into the nighttime hours on Sunday, which would result in the more extreme conditions (i.e. LIFR visibilities/ceilings).

As far as winds, all of the TAF sites outside of KALB are experiencing light and variable to calm winds, hence the threat for LLWS at all of the other TAF sites tonight through Sunday morning.
KALB is currently experiencing winds out of the south-southeast at 1015 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. By Sunday morning, winds at the other terminals will pick up out of the south-southwest between 5-10 kts with KALB maintaining its current state. By Sunday afternoon, winds could gusts at most of the TAF sites (maybe outside of KGFL) from 20-25 kts or so. Winds are expected to shift out of the northwest Sunday night amid the cold fropa with magnitudes/speeds between 5-10 kts..

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
SN.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts
Definite RA
SN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region today into this evening/tonight before ending as a period of snow for later tonight into early Monday. Although model guidance has slightly shifted the heavier totals eastward, total liquid equivalent will be between 1.25 and 3 inches, with the highest amounts expected across western New England. As a result of the rainfall, urban and small stream flooding is expected.
Areas of poor drainage and within fields will see standing water. Much of the eastern New York is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall over much of western New England.

Some minor flooding on the main stem rivers is possible as well, based off the latest forecasts from the NERFC and MMEFS guidance, mainly for areas south and east of the Capital Region.
These current forecasts suggest some minor flooding is possible along portions of the Housatonic River, the Walloomsac River near North Bennington, Schoharie Creek at Gilboa, and the Rondout Creek at Rosendale. Should the rainfall amounts be closer to the higher side of forecast ranges, there is a possibility that moderate flood stage may be approached on the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge and Williamstown, although all of these river forecasts may be too high if rain changes to snow earlier than anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ032-033-038.
MA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for VTZ013.

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Hyde Park
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Sun -- 04:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:58 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:40 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:20 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
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Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Poughkeepsie
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Sun -- 04:32 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:14 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:54 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
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Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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