Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hyde Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Slippery travel for the evening commute today across much of eastern New York and western New England due to light to locally moderate snow and patchy freezing rain/drizzle.

2) There is a low probability for a coastal storm to bring moderate winter weather impacts to eastern New York and western New England late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

UPDATE...As of 730 PM EST, a quick update was done to PoPs/Temps/Wx to match ongoing trends. The warm nose was able to extend as far north as the I-90 corridor and the Capital District. The 00z KALY sounding showed a +3.5C warm nose around 875 hPa allowing for a brief period of sleet/freezing rain this evening. Reports of freezing rain were also received farther west into the Mohawk Valley. This warm nose has already retreated south and east of the Capital Region as precipitation has changed back to snow. However, this will allow for some wintry mix potential for areas south and east of Albany through this evening, which is under a Winter Weather Advisory.
Precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast between 8pm and midnight across the region.

Previous Discussion: A mid-level, upper-low can currently be seen on water vapor imagery traversing southeastern Ontario with a primary surface low just beneath it as indicated on SPC's hourly mesoscale analysis page. An area of warm air advection and isentropic lift are currently expanding into the region and strengthening, driving an initial batch of showers across eastern New York and western New England.
Upstream in western/central New York where the warm nose is currently the most prevalent, some of the latest obs have indicated freezing rain and sleet mixing in with snow, but there is still an expectation for precipitation to begin as snow everywhere here given 925-850mb temperatures remain below freezing.

Once this initial batch of snow showers pushes through the region, a surge of low-level dry air will bring a brief break in precipitation late this afternoon for most. However, once a secondary low forms along the occluded front of the clipper and the upper low slides farther east, increased forcing will lead to precipitation filling back in across the region. For most, precipitation will return as snow, but for portions of the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England, some freezing rain could mix in for a few hours around the evening commute due to the expansion and strengthening of the aforementioned warm nose. This combination of snow and patches of freezing rain will make for slick conditions for the evening commute so caution is advised for all routine travelers.

This will be a fairly progressive system wherein precipitation will largely be done by daybreak tomorrow. Some freezing drizzle could persist in the aforementioned areas into the pre-dawn hours tomorrow due to a loss of ice in the clouds once the DGZ begins to dry out, but otherwise persistent precipitation will become limited to the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens.
Here, upslope and lake enhancement will allow snow showers to persist through Wednesday, leading to moderate to locally heavy accumulations at the highest peaks.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We continue to monitor the low probability of moderate impacts from a coastal storm that is being highlighted by medium- to long-range guidance for late this weekend through early next week. Frankly, this is going to be an all or nothing type of event given with two possible situations. The first, and most likely situation, indicates a sufficient disconnect between the northern and southern streams that will eventually lead to a strong ridge over the Northeast and suppression of a potent, closed low to our south. In this situation, the southern stream closed low will remain well south of our area, departing off the East Coast and into the western Atlantic with little northern progress. The second, low probability situation, develops more zonal flow over the Northeast and allows the southern stream low to steer northward as it enters into the Western Atlantic. In the first situation, which is currently being favored by almost 80% of ensemble members, we would see very little if any resulting precipitation. If the second, widespread moderate to potentially heavy snow would overspread the region Sunday evening through Monday. We will continue to monitor trends as lead time decreases, but as of now, this storm likely will not pose an issue for us locally.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00z/Thu...Clipper system will continue to bring a period of snow to the TAF sites until 03-06z/Wed with a mix of sleet and freezing rain falling for a brief time at KALB/KPSF/KPOU with a warm nose in place. Vsbys will vary between MVFR and LIFR during this time with mainly MVFR/VFR cigs. After 06z/Wed, vsbys should return to VFR with mainly VFR cigs though the rest of the TAF period. However, MVFR cigs may develop at KPSF between 09-12z/Wed before returning to VFR between 15-18z/Wed. If enough clearing occurs, some patchy fog could form at KPOU toward daybreak though this is low confidence. Southerly winds 10 kt or less will continue tonight shifting to the west at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001- 013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ047- 051-058>061-063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033- 038-082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001- 025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ015.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.