Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 2:13 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 324 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon - .
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and early morning. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 4 seconds. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 324 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure approaches from the south this evening and then meanders just south of the area tonight before slowly pulling away to the southeast Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure late weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

FXUS61 KALY 152346 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 746 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers diminish this evening as a boundary to the north and west continues to weaken, while an approaching coastal low brings additional rain showers to the Mid- Hudson Valley and southern New England overnight. Showers continue through Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday. Additional chances for rain are expected this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Update
As of 7:45 PM EDT...Still seeing ongoing showers across the ADKs associated with the stalled frontal boundary, and some additional scattered showers across the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England ahead of a coastal low that is located to the east of Atlantic City, NJ. Showers across our northern areas should gradually diminish through the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating and the thermal gradient associated with this boundary expected to slowly wash out.
Across our southern zones, showers likely persist through much of tonight, with a period of steadier rain possible across portions of far southeastern Dutchess and eastern Litchfield Counties due to isentropic lift/warm advection associated with a coastal front. There will be a sharp northern edge to the steadier precip, and the heaviest precip is expected to remain to our east through at least 12z Thursday. Accordingly, not expecting any hydro issues across our area. Also added some patchy fog to the grids tonight, which is possible should any breaks in the cloud shield occur. Most likely area for this looks to be along and north of I-90. Otherwise, just minor adjustments with this update as previous forecast remains in good shape...

Previous
A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally, enhanced rain shower coverage over the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley is expected to continue trending northward, with much more scattered showers persisting across the remainder of the region. A more solid shield of precipitation is impinging upon the southern New England coast as the coastal low approaches, which will reach into areas along and east of the Taconics in western New England overnight tonight.

Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period.
Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40 to upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds this afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast about the northern flank of the approaching low.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Isolated to scattered showers continue on Thursday as the coastal low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the highest chances for rain in areas nearest to the the low in northwestern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Other higher terrain areas across the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and southern Vermont may also see enhanced shower coverage while the Mohawk, Schoharie, and Upper Hudson Valleys trend drier. Temperatures stay cooler to the south and east of Albany beneath more persistent cloud cover and rain shower activity, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while relatively clearer skies to the north and west yield warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather returns to the region by Thursday night as higher pressure noses into the region as the coastal low exits to the east. Temperatures near seasonable norms are expected, with Thursday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Developing southeasterly flow on Friday will see temperatures rise above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the region beneath partly cloudy skies. Another approaching upper shortwave will bring increased cloud cover ahead of rain shower late Friday night, with mild overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mid and upper level low/trough and surface low pressure system looks to track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas over the weekend. There is some uncertainty on whether or not a weak upper trough or upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, which would impact rainfall chances. In addition, an inverted trough may be in place, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
Overall, the best rain chances Saturday look to be for areas west of the Hudson Valley. By Sunday, stronger upper level ridging will be in place with surface high pressure nosing in from Atlantic Canada.
This will bring increasingly drier weather for the second half of the weekend.

Continued upper ridging and surface high pressure in place will maintain dry conditions for early next week. The next best chance for rainfall arrives towards midweek as an upper-level trough and surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday then trend upward to the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows most nights will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 7:45 PM EDT, except at PSF where a brief shower resulted in some IFR vsbys.
Expecting mainly VFR vsbys/cigs outside of any showers through the next few hours at POU/PSF and through at least midnight at GFL/ALB. POU/PSF see a trend down towards MVFR cigs later this evening as the coastal low approaches. There is a brief window at GFL where some fog/mist is possible around midnight if some breaks in the clouds occur, but current thinking is that any fog/mist will be short-lived as increasing winds there after 8z should help to mix out any fog. Some showers are possible the second half of tonight at POU/PSF with the coastal low passing to our south, but exactly how far north showers make it remains uncertain.

Tomorrow morning, all terminals trend down to MVFR cigs, but if any showers make it to POU/PSF, they should end shortly after 12z tomorrow. MVFR cigs prevail through tomorrow morning at all TAF sites, but ALB/GFL see some improvement back to VFR for tomorrow afternoon and evening. At POU/PSF, MVFR cigs continue well into the afternoon, with some improvement possible towards the tail end of the TAF period. Some additional showers are possible tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating, but these will be hit or miss so will just include VCSH groups for now.

Winds will be from the northeast at around 5 kt or less through the next few hours, switching to the east/northeast at around 5-10 kt after midnight. Tomorrow, east/northeast winds will be around 10 kt with some gusts of 15-25 kt possible at ALB/POU/PSF especially from mid-morning through early evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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