Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Providence, RI

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather.

- Summerlike warmth continues Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather.

- Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up.

- More seasonable temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk of severe weather.

Latest hi-res guidance has delayed onset of scattered convection moving into SNE to late in the day and this evening. We still have height rises into early afternoon then weak height falls developing late today and this evening as a weak shortwave passes to the north.
There are favorable mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and there is sufficient 0-6km shear for storm organization. However, instability is marginal with MLCAPES generally 500-1000 J/kg and with potential convection delayed into the evening instability will be diminishing. Also forcing for ascent is marginal as well. So while there are some conflicting signals for severe weather, if robust convection can get going to the north and west later this afternoon favorable deep layer shear should be enough to support a few strong to severe storms with the timing mainly from 5-10 pm across northern and western MA where HRRR is showing some updraft helicity tracks. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat but can't rule out some hail given steep mid level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike warmth likely to continue Wednesday away from the coast, but backdoor front will bring cooler temps to portions of eastern MA. Another round of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather.

Backdoor front expected to slip southward into NE MA Wed morning and eventually move through rest of eastern MA by late afternoon but timing is uncertain. 925 mb temps 20-21C south and west of the boundary which will result in temps reaching low-mid 80s, especially across CT and portions of central/W MA which will remain on the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, temps will likely fall into the 50s in NE MA with temp forecast uncertainty highest across interior E and SE MA which will be close to the boundary. It is possible temps here warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s before the front moves through then falling sharply by late afternoon but this will depend on the timing of the front.

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon into the evening as another low amplitude shortwave approaches. Environment is fairly similar to today with MLCAPES 500- 1000 J/kg although mid level lapse rates are less favorable. 0-6 km shear is up to 40 kt which is quite favorable for storm organization. Hi-res CAMs do show varying areal coverage of convection developing into the afternoon in the interior then eventually becoming focused near the south coast during Wed night.
CSU machine learning probs and Nadocast showing low risk for severe across the interior so can't rule out a few strong to severe storms again with damaging wind the primary threat. HRRR severe wind probs are a bit lower tomorrow and focused across CT.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up.

Temp forecast becomes more uncertain later this week, as short wave energy riding up and over the top of the subtropical ridge, may be strong enough to lower heights and have a backdoor front enter SNE, especially northeast MA. However, at this time range, low predictability regarding the amplitude of individual short waves and attending surface boundaries/backdoor fronts. Thus, certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time.

Showers and thunderstorms could be more widespread Friday, as multi model guidance suggest a more robust mid level short wave moving across the Northeast into New England.

KEY MESSAGE 4...More seasonable temperatures early next week.

As expected, difficult to sustain temps 20+ degs warmer than normal in April, thus good multi model agreement (especially at this time range) that a strong cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers, that could spill into early Monday. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week, with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence in areal coverage of TSRA and timing.

VFR. A cold front brings hit-and-miss thunderstorms to areas across western New England late this afternoon into the early evening. This could lead to brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. It bank of low stratus/fog develops off the east coast of MA, which should remain off shore the first half of the night, before inching on shore early Wednesday morning, here flight categories fall to MVFR.

SW to S wind today, periodically gusty 15-20 knots. Wind speeds ease overnight, becoming calm in protected areas.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Moderate Confidence.

Becoming VFR. A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of SNE and have moderate confidence this remains across NE MA. North of the boundary MVFR with winds E to E. South of the boundary VFR and winds are SW. Showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary between 18z-00z. Overnight becoming IFR to MVFR across most of the region, the only area that could remain low-end VFR is be the lower CT River Valley and points SW. Light southwest wind.

KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF.

Have moderate confidence in the chance of TSRA and lower clouds Wednesday morning. Will have LLWS tonight between 02z-08z.

KBDL Terminal... Moderate confidence in TAF.

Have moderate confidence in the timing and coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

SCA for outer southern waters through tonight for marginal seas. S- SW winds will gust to 20+ kt at times, shifting to E over NE MA waters during Wed with SW flow persisting over southern waters. Variable winds Wed night less than 20 kt, mostly N-NE over NE MA waters and SW over southern waters. Late night and early morning fog possible.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

CLIMATE
Upcoming record highs:

Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023

Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255-256.