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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Showers likely.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 101 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters sometime Sun into Mon.

FXUS61 KBOX 080632 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 132 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure maintains dry weather through Saturday with temperatures rising to above normal levels. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain, strong southerly winds and coastal flooding along the south coast late Sunday into early Monday. Turning drier by Monday afternoon with a brief shot of colder air for Monday night, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Satellite data showed more clouds in place across the western half of southern New England early this morning. This will put the brakes on radiational cooling there. Guidance continued to struggle with the extent of these clouds, so relied more on extrapolating observed satellite data for sky cover through daybreak.

Weak high pressure remains in control of our weather, providing another dry day. However, a warm front approaching from the SW will result in warmer temperatures as well as a period of clouds. Expecting high temperatures to be near to slightly below normal today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Not much change tonight into Saturday. Warm front should struggle to move completely north of our region by Saturday evening. However, there should be enough of a surge of warm air to result in near to slightly above normal temperatures, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Dry weather continues through Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points...

* Quiet, dry, and milder the first half of Sunday.

* A strong storm system will bring widespread rain, strong (potentially damaging) winds, and the possibility of coastal flooding on the south coast.

* Quiet and colder Tuesday through Thursday

We'll see a very deep trough cross the region, bringing unsettled weather to the region Sunday into Monday which will be discussed in further detail below. Beyond that more zonal mid level flow moves in with broad surface high pressure at the surface for Tuesday into at least Wednesday leading to dry, quiet, and colder weather for mid week as highs settle back in the 40s.

The main focus in the extended forecast period is the late Sunday into Monday period as a strong frontal system and neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough move out of the Ohio Valley and cross New England Sunday night. The anomalous nature of several parameters including moisture (PWAT) and wind spell potential for a concerning event on a few fronts.

As for the rainfall potential, this system has abundant moisture with PWATs exceeding 3 standard deviations from normal for December. This, combined with the very strong dynamics (a low level jet ranging from 50 kts to as much as 80+kts over the outer Cape) will yield rainfall amounts from 1 to 2+ inches between Sunday and Monday afternoon. The highest amounts will be over the interior (western MA/CT) where forcing will be enhanced by orographics as well as from the slightly negatively tilt of the mid level trough and divergence aloft thanks to placement beneath the right rear quadrant of a 145 kt low level jet. This is also where there is a tight gradient from core of the LLJ to the slower winds to the north which will enhance low level convergence. Ensembles depict a 20-30% chance of seeing 3+ inches of rain here. Further east we may see localized maxima thanks to some elevated instability in the warm sector leading to scattered convection. The progressive nature of the system will help keep flooding issues from being a big concern (save for urban/poor drainage flooding) but some rises on rivers are expected, and the MMEFS depicts a 30% chance of minor flooding at points on the CT River; something to watch.

As for winds, given the aforementioned anomalous low level jet and expected temperature inversion near the surface over southeast MA it will be a matter of just how much of that wind can mix down to the surface. One thing that could help mix down the stronger gusts would be any convective elements that may develop. To be sure, it will be windy regardless, but as for the 45+ mph potential that will be confined primarily to RI and southeast MA. Ensemble guidance depicts a 50-80% chance of 45+ mph gusts over this region; generally thinking 45-60 mph gusts are the best bet right now but things will change as we get into the higher resolution guidance.

Finally, the peak of the southerly winds looks to be during the early morning hours of Monday. Even though places like Narragansett Bay won't have an astronomically high tide at the time, if the peak of the wind/surge coincides with high tide (6:20am in Providence) it could spell some coastal flooding is possible. It will all come down to exact timing which we won't be able to nail down until much closer to the event.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

VFR for most with generally light N to NW winds becoming S to SW this afternoon. Areas MVFR towards the Berkshires this morning.

Tonight and Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR ceilings for most. Main uncertainty remained the possibility and extent of MVFR ceilings towards the CT River Valley tonight, which may briefly spread east towards daybreak Saturday. Light southerly winds expected through this period.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. RA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt. RA, patchy BR.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Expecting relatively light winds and seas through Saturday. A warm front should move across the southern coastal waters Saturday, but remain west of the eastern coastal waters through then.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt.
Rough seas up to 15 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Providence
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Providence, Rhode Island, Tide feet

Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:17 AM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:43 AM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:35 PM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet

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