Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Providence, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:09PM Sunday March 29, 2020 11:52 PM EDT (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:23AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1016 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Isolated tstms. Showers likely, then a chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu through Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will slide through late today into Mon. Low pres develops on this front E of the waters and will slowly move E through Tue. Another low pres should pass well S of the waters Wed. Low pressure will remain nearly stationary well east of the waters for Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Providence, RI
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location: 41.8, -71.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 300002 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 802 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Pattern not changing much tonight into Monday as a secondary low pressure lingers just east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. This will lock in the clouds and continue a risk for showers or drizzle. This low pressure should finally depart Monday night into Tuesday. Variable cloudiness and seasonably cooler weather for Tuesday into Wednesday. Though a midweek coastal low is looking more likely to stay away from Southern New England, wrap-around moisture from it will bring increasing clouds and periods of showers by late week. Moderating temperatures for the weekend, with the next cold front either late Saturday or Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 730 PM Update:

Feeling the effects of increasing upper-level support from the approaching trough, and in conjunction with elevated instability (mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km producing a narrow ribbon of MUCAPEs < 500 J/kg), heavy showers and thunderstorms have again blossomed over the Berkshires into the Pioneer Valley and into northern Worcester County. These showers and storms are rooted above chilly and very stable low-levels, moving to the northeast at a fairly fast clip (60 mph). Given the elevated weak instability, generally expecting these storms to mainly produce occasional lightning and heavy rains, though in a worst-case stronger cell, small hail between pea to half-inch size would be possible. The stable low-levels should mitigate how much wind is transported to the surface. Severe weather isn't expected, but the thunder could certainly startle some people.

Did re-shape PoPs/Wx to bring isolated thunder mention at least across a good part of western and central MA. Poor consistency in the high-res CAMs makes for less confidence on if any storms make it into the Boston-Providence corridor. At the moment, appears the recent HRRR has the best handle on current activity, with any thunder through midnight being north of the Mass Pike. May need some adjustments to PoPs/Wx later, though did include areas of drizzle/fog for the after-midnight portion of the forecast.

No changes to temps which will not change much.

Previous discussion follows .

Secondary low pressure lingers east of Cape Cod and Nantucket tonight. Expecting a lingering risk for showers or drizzle at just about any time through this evening. Drier air moves in aloft after midnight, ending most of the precipitation towards CT and portions of the CT River Valley in MA.

Plenty of clouds sticking around, should mean temperatures should not fall far. Still thinking above normal low temperatures for the last day of March.

Some stronger showers/possible thunderstorms across the coastal waters late this afternoon. Thinking this is about as far north as any convection will get. Lapse rates are just too poor farther north. In any case, any instability we do have will move well off to the east by this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As the secondary low pressure gets a bit stronger and moves slightly farther offshore, expecting winds to turn more northerly. It will be a subtle, but important, detail. Winds a shade more from the northeast are much more likely to lock in low clouds and drizzle, while a shift of only 20 degrees more to the north will permit some drying in the lower levels, meaning less drizzle.

A decent cold pool moves over the Great Lakes tomorrow, which is close enough to generate a diurnal shower risk, especially if some breaks of sunshine can develop. As this cold pool moves farther east later in the day into Monday night, could see some wet snow develop across the higher terrain of the interior. Little to no snow accumulation expected.

Expecting high temperatures Monday to be similar to today, before colder air arrives Monday night. Near normal low temperatures for Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Cloudy and cooler than normal weather Tuesday into Wednesday.

* Monitoring track of a coastal low later Tuesday into Wednesday night, though a direct impact is looking less likely. Better chance for wrap-around showers central and eastern/coastal MA into RI Thursday into Friday. * Moderating temperatures by the weekend, though a cold front brings a related threat for showers either Saturday or Sunday.

Details .

Tuesday:

Upper-level low will pull away into the waters south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between an offshore weak cyclone and a high pressure wedge will continue to support a cool onshore NE component, with winds at times across the outer eastern/southeast waters gusting to near gale force at times. Coverage of showers should dwindle into the afternoon as surface ridge wedges southeast, with modest cool advection. All in all, still a fairly unsettled day with a considerable amt of clouds and highs in the low to mid 40s, coolest near the eastern MA coast.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night:

Due to increasingly blocked mid/upper flow evolving over the North Atlantic, the upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes retrogrades back across New England Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a southern-stream trough over the central Appalachians and related surface low will shift off the Carolina coast early Tuesday night. This coastal storm remains progged to stay well south of 40 deg N latitude with little if any northward jog following good consistency in the deterministic and ensemble guidance across several model cycles. Given this, and now that the southern-stream disturbance is entering the West Coast as of this writing (and is becoming better sampled by the radiosonde network), it appears less likely that Southern New England will see any impact from this system. Have decreased PoPs to below mentionable levels/dry forecast. Will be some wrap-around moisture on an inverted trough that will affect our area Thursday into Friday, however (to be described below).

So for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, while the pattern is trending drier, expect a continued cooler than normal period with still a fair amount of clouds as the retrograding upper low and its cool pocket of air re-establishes itself. Highs on Wednesday into the 40s (a spot 50 possible in the CT Valley into Tolland County), coolest near the coast. Lows mainly in the 30s each night, though may dip below freezing in northern MA.

Thursday into Friday Night:

12z guidance now indicates the best chance for any showers is toward the latter part of the week, as an inverted trough trails back across ME into Thursday, and shifts/builds southward towards Southern New England later Thursday into Friday. Expect a renewed increase in clouds areawide, and while some threat for showers exists for many, the better chances are mainly across east-central MA/northern RI eastward. Sided toward solid Chance PoPs for the MA coastal plain eastward into the coastal waters, with limited/slight chance shown further west into western MA and northern CT.

Biggest source of uncertainty is regarding how quickly will the inverted trough and related showers pivot SE and exit Southern New England. The 12z ECMWF clears us out by Friday afternoon, whereas the Canadian GEM and the GFS maintain lingering showers even into Friday night. Did start to trend PoPs downward into Friday night but with the blocky pattern upstream and at least leftover troughiness hanging around into Friday night, maintaining at least a slight chance shower mention.

Showed highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday, closer to normal for this time of year. However, depending on how quickly clouds/showers advance in on Thursday, it is possible that these may be a bit too warm and may need to be lowered by a few degrees. Similar highs for Friday. Lows each night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday into Sunday:

Pattern starts to moderate into the weekend, with gradually warming temperatures and shortwave ridging aloft supporting less cloudy conditions.

Model guidance differs on when a cold front moves eastward across our area. GFS and the Canadian are most progressive (later Saturday) while the ECMWF is more into Sunday. Ensemble means tend to support a later arrival, though will stick with a general blend of models for this period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight . Moderate to high confidence.

IFR to LIFR conditions to continue through much of the overnight. Radar and near-term guidance indicate rumbles of thunder mainly N/W of ORH/BED thru about 05z, moving quickly NE. Low confidence on if these, or any additional storms make it into eastern MA into RI and the South Shore. Will likely TEMPO any imminent thunder threat, main threat would be occasional lightning and brief downpours. Winds to become E and NE aroud 3-6 kt in the interior, but around 10-15 kt eastern MA and the coast.

Monday and Monday Night . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Mainly low-end MVFR with areas of IFR conditions. Scattered -SHRA at times. Chance for -SHSN across the higher terrain Monday evening into Monday night.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF trends.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in the TAF trends.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Easterly winds diminishing tonight and shifting toward the north/northeast tonight. Still expect heightened seas across the ocean through Monday with rain and fog at times. Winds increase once more as colder air arrive late Monday into Monday night. Extended the Small Craft Advisories across the outer coastal waters, where rough seas should linger into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the coast waters, did not change much with respect to previous timing. Did cancel the advisories for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay, where wind gusts up to 20 kt are expected this evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ233- 234. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251- 254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk/Loconto SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 1 mi52 min NE 11 G 16 1014.2 hPa (-0.7)
PVDR1 1 mi52 min N 9.9 G 18 42°F 1014.3 hPa (-0.6)42°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 6 mi52 min NNW 18 G 21 42°F 47°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 11 mi67 min NE 14 42°F 1013 hPa42°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 11 mi52 min NNE 12 G 17 42°F 1014.3 hPa (-1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 13 mi52 min N 14 G 20 43°F 1013.6 hPa (-1.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 13 mi52 min 43°F 45°F1013.7 hPa (-1.0)
FRXM3 13 mi52 min 43°F 42°F
PRUR1 14 mi52 min 43°F 43°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi52 min NNW 16 G 20 42°F 45°F1013.6 hPa (-1.2)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 21 mi52 min N 13 G 16 43°F 39°F1012.6 hPa (-1.8)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi52 min N 18 G 20 1012 hPa (-2.2)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 42 mi58 min 41°F 43°F1015.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi52 min 44°F 44°F1011.5 hPa (-2.1)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi52 min NNE 2.9 G 7 43°F 44°F1011.5 hPa (-1.5)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi67 min N 2.9 44°F 1012 hPa44°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi61 minN 141.25 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%1014.1 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI8 mi56 minN 122.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F39°F100%1009.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI19 mi59 minNNE 102.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%1011.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi60 minVar 49.00 miOvercast41°F39°F96%1012.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA23 mi59 minNNE 71.75 miFog/Mist42°F42°F100%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE6NE7E6E12E12E12E8E12SE12E10E14
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SE8NE9E12E12E11E10NE8NE10NE8NE8N12N14
1 day agoN5N3CalmNW3NE3W3CalmW3CalmCalm5S4CalmS8S11S12S9S5S4CalmCalmSE6SE4E7
2 days agoSW10SW9SW6SW6SW7W6SW6W5W3W7NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Providence, State Pier no.1, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Conimicut Light, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.