NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1058 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of drizzle and snow through about 2 am, then a slight chance of drizzle, snow and a chance of light freezing drizzle overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle, light freezing drizzle and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 110552 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1252 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1239 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Any lingering patches of drizzle and or isolated snow showers will dissipate late tonight. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.
An extended period of dry weather is expected through Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Lake effect precipitation will continue to be the primary forecast of the short term.

Subtle veering of low level flow this afternoon has allowed for better fetch and some organization of lake effect rain/snow showers across west central/southern Lower Michigan. Moisture depths have been a limitation through most of the day, but a pocket of slightly enhanced low level moisture is overspreading the southern Great Lakes region from Illinois in advance of the next upper level short wave. This forcing and slightly better moisture quality at the lower reaches of the ice nuclei producing layers, should allow for some uptick in lake effect snow showers late afternoon into early this evening. Impacts are still expected to be very limited with sfc wet bulbs at or above freezing and road temps above freezing through early evening. Despite some uptick in low level moisture through early evening, near term forecast soundings still suggest marginal profiles for rain/snow in terms of ice nucleation through late afternoon. It still appears as though the narrow temporal window for any light lake effect snow accumulations on grassy areas could be in the 23Z-03Z timeframe.

Some very low end concern (low confidence) could materialize late this evening (after 03Z) of some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle in association with lake effect precip as sfc wet bulbs drop below freezing and road temps cool. By the time these conditions supportive of freezing drizzle take hold, lake effect parameters start to become less favorable with gradual lowering inversion heights overnight and increasingly shallow moisture profiles that appear to be less supportive of measurable precip.

Quiet conditions are in store for Monday as flow backs to the southwest in response to anticyclone shifting across the Ohio Valley. Some lingering lake effect cloudiness will persist across the north/northeast with clearing skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures will be seasonable for Monday as low level thermal trough begins to retreat.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Split-type flow will develop early this week with cut-off upper height negative anomaly across southwest CONUS, and a more progressive northern stream affecting south central Canada into the northern Great Lakes. The most pronounced of these northern stream short waves will track across Ontario on Tuesday with a trailing cold front tracking across the local area. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday into the low to mid 40s, but highs may be reached midday before front settles southward across the region. Precipitation is not expected with the front as anticyclone across southeast CONUS blocks any significant moisture return ahead of the front, and only some increase in mid level clouds is expected.

No significant changes have been made to the forecast for middle/latter portions of the week as northern latitude upper ridge dominates. Some indications late Friday into Saturday of progressive Pacific northwest wave racing across Great Lakes, but low confidence at this forecast distance given low predictability in track and limited prospects for significant moisture recovery through this forecast valid period.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Predominantly MVFR conditions at both TAF sites through the period, with improvement to VFR expected this afternoon into tonight. Lingering low cloud deck with ceilings from 1000 to 2500 ft will keep in play through the overnight and much of Monday before dry air works its way into the region and subsidence builds in aloft. There is a broad area of IFR ceilings to the SSW of KFWA, but do not anticipate them impacting the terminal (at least not for more than an hour if they do). Otherwise, we do see some pockets of VFR behind the passing shortwave over parts of NW Ohio and extending into northern Indiana-largely from Rochester to Warsaw and Kendallville. These could briefly impact KFWA before ceilings in the 1500-2500ft range fill back in through the late afternoon. Northwest winds will gradually lighten and back towards the south-southwest by this evening.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,