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LEZ147 Expires:202311292115;;603469 Fzus51 Kcle 291443 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 943 am est Wed nov 29 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-292115- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 943 am est Wed nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 300541 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1241 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mild southwest flow develops on Thursday ahead of an approaching area of low pressure and cold front. These features impact the region Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
915 pm update...
With this late evening update, we made some minor adjustments to the hourly cloud cover forecast now through 18z tomorrow. The two areas that needed a fresh update was the lake effect cloud cover that has been stubborn to move out of NWPA this evening.
The latest IR GOES-16 imagery this evening also has shown some clouds have sneaked back over portions of Ashtabula County this evening coming off Lake Erie. But again the overall trend overnight will be clearing from west to east for those areas closer to NWPA. We also adjusted cloud cover forecast Thursday morning into the midday hours. A closer look to the hourly data that was previously in the the forecast, it seemed a little too aggressive and high on the percentage of cloud cover through 18z with the incoming cloud cover for tomorrow. We will see an increase of high level cirrus type clouds moving in on Thursday but also have sunshine or filtered sun for most of the day.

630 pm update...
The near term forecast did not need any adjustments with this mid evening intermediate update. All the clouds have cleared out of northern Ohio as of early this evening. The last of the lake effect clouds are still over NWPA this evening and will continue to erode away from west to east overnight. The weather is quiet tonight thanks to a big high pressure system over the eastern CONUS.

Previous discussion...
All but the eastern CWA is cloud free as of 330 pm. However we should see the clouds continue to move eastward through the evening with all locations becoming clear to partly cloudy. We then will be watching a weakening cold front moving across the central Great Lakes on Thursday. This will assist with increasing southerly flow ahead of it. It will remain dry with temperatures slightly below seasonal levels tonight. Lows should dip to the 20's at most locations. However some lower teens likely where snow remains. Warmer on Thursday with passing cloud cover. Highs should be in the mid to upper 40's, except where snowpack remains.

Southerly winds continue to improve the low level moisture through Thursday night. The stalled frontal boundary over the region becomes the path for low pressure to follow as we move into Friday. Increasing isentropic lift will cause an increase in cloud cover with a few showers spreading southwest to northeast through sunrise Friday morning. Low temperatures likely occur Thursday evening then remain steady or slowly warm through sunrise.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A stationary front will be situated just north of the forecast area in southeast Michigan and across Lake Erie. A shortwave trough and associated surface low lifts northeast out of the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley this weekend. Strong isentropic lift northeast of the low along with low-level convergence/frontogenesis along the stationary front will lead to areawide rain Friday morning through the afternoon hours. Showers should become a bit more scattered out Friday evening through early Friday night before becoming a bit more focused and increasing in coverage near the low pressure center late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Precipitation chances should gradually diminish through Saturday night as weak high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be near normal on Friday to slightly above normal on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Several upper-level troughs traverse the area through the long term, with low PoPs in nearly every period. This is because there's timing differences between model guidance and in general, precipitation is expected to be light and scattered. The forecast will become more focused with precipitation chances as we get closer to next week. Sunday should be warm with temperatures slightly above normal, with temperatures gradually trending downward through the week to below normal by Wednesday. The cooler temperatures midweek (i.e. Tuesday night and Wednesday) could be enough to support some snow but nothing too meaningful expected at this time.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Ceilings below 5000 feet at ERI should exit to the northeast by 9 or 10z this morning. Ceilings below 5000 feet will begin developing from west to east after 3z Friday ahead of approaching low pressure. Non-VFR will begin spreading in from the west after about 9z Friday.

South-southwest winds of 6 to 12 knots tonight will increase to 12 to 18 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots during the daytime Thursday. Gusts will subside some after 22z, but sustained winds will remain in the 10 to 15 knot range.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected across the area Friday and Friday night. Scattered rain showers are possible again Sunday.

MARINE
The small craft advisory west of The Islands was allowed to expire at 4 PM today. The rest of the small craft advisory will continue through 1 AM Friday. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots this afternoon decrease to around 15 knots tonight before increasing back to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. Winds west of The Islands will get close to small craft advisory conditions tomorrow, so that will have to be monitored.

A cold front settles over Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday as a stationary front, remaining there through Saturday morning. Winds be light (<10 knots) and variable as low pressure comes up from the southwest and moves along this front across Lake Erie on Saturday.
High pressure briefly builds in behind the low on Saturday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ144>149.

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