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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1020 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots late morning and early afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet by late morning, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet toward evening.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds around 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 45 degrees and at michigan city is 45 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 300559 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1259 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1258 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Look for a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A warm front lifts into northern Indiana later tonight and will be the focus for widespread rain, especially late tonight through the morning hours on Friday. Low chances for rain showers again early next week, perhaps mixed at times with snow.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

One more cold night is in store with lows in the mid 20s. With winds slightly elevated up to 10-15 mph early Thursday morning, wind chills will be in the upper teens. The cold is short lived as highs climb above average tomorrow. WAA and southwesterly winds will transport increased moisture and warmer temperatures northward from the Gulf. As a result, temperatures quickly warm throughout the morning and early afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As an area of low pressure advances northeast out of Oklahoma, rain chances increase late Thursday night and especially into Friday morning. Following in the footsteps of the previous forecasters, the forecast continues to be tweaked to delay the onset of the most widespread rain. Between 00Z to 12Z Friday, rain should remain light and scattered, before increasing in coverage and becoming more widespread between 12-18Z Friday as the low approaches. Many of the short range models, particularly the HRRR and NAM, show this trend as well. Forcing is rather weak with the system, as convection develops along the WAA axis. QPF with this system should yield around half to three quarters of an inch by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Additional precipitation chances persist through the long term forecast range as a series of 500 mb shortwaves pass through the CWA. During the day Saturday, it will be dry. However, as the backside of the low moves through on Saturday afternoon, another wave of precipitation develops along a 500 mb shortwave that moves in from the southwest. We will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday, as temperatures will be above freezing in the upper 30s, but some snowflakes could mix in at times. Some snow showers (perhaps lake effect in nature) will be possible as well Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Low level wind shear atop shallow surface based inversion mid morning before sufficient mixing affords higher surface speed/gusts. Then primary focus on substantial northward low level moisture transport in advance of southern stream system lifting out of Texas Panhandle to Ozarks by end of forecast period. Rapid deterioration of flight conditions into IFR/lower end MVFR anticipated. IFR appears more likely at KSBN on cold side of warm frontogenetic surge.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043.

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Northern Indiana, IN,