Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Cold front is failing to force convection thus far with highly sheared, shallow, cumulus noted. Mixing out has allowed dew points to fall into the upper-50s which could be one limiting factor paired with 500-mb forcing which is exiting the area. Meanwhile, toward Portland, they are insulated by high cloud cover from a departing MCS. I cannot completely rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm over northwest Ohio within the next few hours. However, given the shallow cumulus and consistency of CAMs runs, the writing appears to be on the wall that the severe weather threat is over locally. Gusty wind will subside in the wake of the cold front.

High pressure moves in tonight allowing temperatures to plummet well into the 30s along the MI state line; mid-40s toward central Indiana. Northerly flow near 7kts may be just enough to inhibit frost prevention. Unsurprisingly, sharply cooler on Wednesday but right near normal with high temperatures eventually warming into low- to-mid 60s.

Return flow on the west edge of the surface high arrives Wednesday night. With it, warm advection showers and thunderstorms develop across IL and eventually IN. Preceding dry air will initially limit rainfall but approaching 500-mb height falls will add needed forcing to saturate the column. Instability will be on the rise within the warm sector and shear will be ample as well but nocturnal timing of these ingredients is not a slam-dunk for severe storms. The associated surface low moves through during the day Thursday. A marginal environment exists here too for severe storms as well, but morning showers and storms will have a direct impact on recovery for the afternoon.

A trailing shortwave breezes through late Friday afternoon and evening bringing a slight chance for additional showers.

Large blocking pattern looms starting next week. The east side of this towering ridge to start the week will permit seasonable highs (mid-60s) followed by even warmer conditions in the days thereafter.
Rain looks sparse during this time such that drought conditions may quickly develop.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 625 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

VFR this period as sfc ridging and dry air overspreads the Great Lakes again.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.