Friendsville, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friendsville, PA

June 20, 2024 8:26 AM EDT (12:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM
Moonrise 6:58 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville, PA
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 201102 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 702 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions will persist today, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Some stronger storms will produce localized damaging winds and torrential rainfall which could lead to spot flooding. Heat and humidity will shift slightly to the south Friday, along with the main threat area for thunderstorms. Temperatures finally look to cool into the 80s by Saturday, with more relief coming early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
400 AM Update:

Strong showers and thunderstorms just west of the CWA boundary mostly weakened as they moved into the Finger Lakes and Thruway corridor overnight/this morning. Meanwhile, the MCS over southern Ontario is about to cross the Niagara River.

Overall thoughts on the evolution of convection today remains mostly unchanged. Weakening convection over the Finger Lakes has likely left a boundary somewhere around the Southern Finger Lakes arcing back up towards Syracuse, though it's poorly defined and not easily analyzed, especially at night. This boundary is expected to be reinforced and pushed a little southward as the MCS coming in from Ontario weakens and pushes across the Lake Plain. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible as the remnants push through this morning.

By afternoon, we'll end up with a west-east oriented (or WNW to ENE) boundary across the middle of the CWA, likely just north of the Southern Tier near the southern end of the Finger Lakes, arcing back up towards the Mohawk Valley. This boundary will then become the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening as additional weak perturbations in the westerly flow aloft roll through the area.

PWAT values of 1.75 to around 2 inches, and warm cloud depths of 11,000 feet will promote localized torrential downpours. The orientation of the boundary parallel to the upper flow, somewhat weak steering flow will further enhance the risk of localized heavy rainfall, potentially falling in areas which have already seen heavy rainfall in the past 48 or so hours (mainly west of I-81). Some localized flooding issues could occur later today, though the spotty nature of the heaviest precip, and lingering questions over the location of the stalled boundary preclude issuing a watch at this point.

While the focus for convection will be along the stalled out boundary, scattered thunderstorms will also extend further north towards the Thruway corridor. Fairly high CAPE values (at "fat CAPE" profiles per BUFKIT) could result in some localized downburst/microburst winds despite the relatively weak flow aloft. With weak shear, the storms will tend to be very pulsey.

Although some convective debris will be around this morning, and temperatures will be a hair cooler than the past day or two, dewpoints will be a little higher, and Heat Index values will still meet or exceed 95 across much of Central NY, with upper-90s in valley locations, and pushing 100 in lower elevations in PA. Thunderstorms will provide some relief this afternoon, at the cost of the aforementioned heavy rain and strong wind threats.

Today's convection will push the boundary further south for Friday, with the Northern Tier of PA becoming the main focus for stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with a continued heavy rain threat as low level moisture pools along the boundary/front. Some "cooler" air will seep into north-central NY, but Heat Index values still look to push 95 in the lower elevations of the Southern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier of NY, as well as Sullivan County. HI values will again push 100 in NEPA, and the Heat Advisory has been extended through Friday evening for south-central NY and all of NEPA.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
400 AM Update...

A quasi-stationary front draped over the region Friday night into Saturday combined with a few weak perturbations in the flow aloft will lead to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. Convection will be most likely during the afternoon and early evening on Saturday with PoPs around 50-60%.
These values were lowered a bit from NBM which loaded in categorical PoPs greater than 75% or portions of the area, and while it is likely for there to be showers and storms, given its scattered nature it's tricky to identify where those highest PoPs may be at this point. Also, given the clouds, convection and placement of the boundary, high temperatures Saturday will be tricky as well. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 80s across CNY while the Twin Tiers and NE PA can range from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees in some valley locations.

The frontal boundary is expected to lift back northward Saturday night into early Sunday and as the flow becomes more southwesterly, it will lead to a very warm, muggy night with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
400 AM Update...

The strong upper-level ridge is expected finally begin breaking down on Sunday as a shortwave trough and surface cold front approach from the west and increase chances for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday into Sunday night. Highs Sunday are generally expected to range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. While there is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold frontal passage between Sunday night and early Monday, cooler, more refreshing air is expected to filter in for Monday with highs mainly in the upper 70s and low 80s and dew points retreat into the upper 50s and low 60s during the afternoon. There is still a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as well on Monday with the upper level trough lagging overhead. By Tuesday high pressure briefly builds in leading to a dry day before another front looks to bring the chance for showers and storms back into the area midweek. Temperatures are expected to trend back up Tuesday but dew points stay relatively low in the upper 50s and low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place at all terminals the rest of this morning. Moving into the afternoon and evening, the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be greater across the area in comparison to the past couple of days. While confidence in timing and location of any storms is on the low side due to the scattered nature of the convection, the CAMs seem to hint at the best chance being over ITH, ELM and BGM.
However, the high res models have not be handling any convection that has popped up the past few days very well, so this is taken with a grain of salt. PROB30 groups are in for these three terminals from 21-23Z, but a storm cannot be ruled out at the other terminal sites, especially RME and SYR.

VFR conditions are expected later on this evening and into the overnight hours for most locations. If ELM does see rain and has some clearing, then fog does look likely, so this will be something to monitor.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Spotty restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018- 036-037-044>046-057.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ022>025-055-056-062.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBGM GREATER BINGHAMTON/EDWIN A LINK FIELD,NY 23 sm33 minSW 0410 smClear73°F66°F78%30.35
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Binghamton, NY,




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