Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friendsville, PA
December 11, 2023 1:31 AM EST (06:31 UTC)
Sunrise 7:20AM Sunset 4:33PM Moonrise 6:03AM Moonset 3:15PM
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 110608 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 108 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Several waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary will bring periods of rain changing to snow later this evening. A low pressure across the Carolinas will deepen tonight and move up the east coast with periods of snow and increasing wind.
High pressure builds into the region temporarily on Tuesday before another cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air and snow showers on Wednesday. Drying out with a warming trend for the end of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Trends throughout the night so far as of 1 AM have been for a slower transition to snow and the drier air advecting in faster resulting in snow tapering off sooner. Most locations have gone over to snow across the region with the back edge just entering the Finger Lakes now. The snow should be ending by daybreak across the region. No changes to headlines for now but with the changeover complete some of them may be adjusted or dropped with the main forecast package.
945 PM Update...
The flood watches were ended for all but Sullivan and Delaware as the rain is transitioning to snow along and east of the I81 corridor. Some rainfall rates were still a quarter inch per hour in Sullivan and Delaware so decided to keep the watches until the transition occurs there.
615 PM Update...
Little change to the previous forecast. Temperatures have been falling slowly as an initial cold front moved through a few hours ago. Radar Correlation Coefficient is showing the rain/snow line descending west of I81 and is at about 1500 feet above the radar so about 3000 feet above sea level. Webcams are still showing rain through much of the Finger Lakes even at higher elevations. The NYSM Hartsville location may have just finally switched over as wet bulb temperatures have fallen below 32 and the webcam is showing some snowflakes. SOC mesoanalysis is showing that the surface low has become closed and is starting to deepen. Water vapor satellite is also showing a good baroclinic leaf with cooling cloud tops overspreading our area also indicative of the deepening surface low. The 500 mb trough is still fairly neutral but should start to become more negatively tilted. With the low deepening, we should start to see some dynamic cooling helping the cold air advection with transitioning the rain to snow. The speed at which this occurs will be monitored over the next few hours as that will help determine where flood watches can be dropped or kept or if snow totals need to be adjusted.
345 PM Update
Storm system is on track, with no significant changes to the forecast with this update. The potential for higher elevation snow has increased enough that Bradford, Tioga (NY), Tompkins and Southern Cayuga counties were added to the winter weather advisory for tonight into Monday morning. Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for Otsego and Delaware counties where confidence remains the highest to reach the 7"+ criteria. The latest ensemble guidance, and WPC's Winter Storm Outlook (WSO)
tool is hinting at the potential for higher snow totals to wrap back into parts of CNY and NE PA; specifically the higher elevations of Wayne, eastern Luzerne, eastern Lackawanna, eastern Susquehanna, eastern Broome and far northern Sullivan counties. Held off on upgrading any of these to a low end warning at this time, as uncertainty in the exact thermal profiles and QPF amounts overnight remains rather high. Will need to keep a close watch on when these areas (higher elevations)
changeover and how efficiently the snow starts to accumulate later this evening.
Held onto the flood watch at this time, but the overall rainfall amounts are decreasing with this system and the latest river forecasts no longer show any locations reaching flood stage.
Wanted to make sure no persistent heavy rain develops south and east of the front this evening, before contemplating dropping any of the flood watches. But again, the flood threat is decreasing in our forecast area. Rainfall amounts are still forecast to be 1.5 to 2 inches over the Catskills and eastern portions of NE PA.
Latest water vapor and IR satellite loop shows a large plume of moisture surging north along the East Coast, extending all the way into the Gulf of Mexico...with thunderstorm activity noted over the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida at this time. Regional composite radar loop shows light to moderate rain over Central NY and Northeast PA, extending all the way down the East Coast...with another batch of steadier rain noted over VA/WV/NC region at this time. SPC mesoanalysis shows an elongated area of lower pressure centered over the Carolinas up into Central VA at this time. As the upper level trough moves east and gradually becomes negatively tilted tonight, a better defined surface low should develop and move just south of Long Island by around midnight and near Boston MA by daybreak Monday. Radar and surface observations show that the initial wind shift and cold front has already slid east along an Oneonta to Tunkhannock line; and this front will continue moving east-southeast into the evening hours. Temperatures will fall through the evening, and as sub 0C air aloft moves in the rain will begin to changeover to wet snow...first over the higher terrain of Steuben county by around 7 PM this evening.
The rain will continue changing over to snow over the higher elevations first, then eventually into the valleys by late evening or the predawn hours early Monday morning. The last places to changeover will be the Wyoming Valley, eastern Sullivan, Pike counties, and also along the lake plain near Syracuse where lake modified air keeps the surface temperatures elevated in the mid-30s. WPC HRRR based snow band tool shows the potential for 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates over much of the area along and east of I-81 in central NY and Northeast PA...the limiting factor will be surface temperatures potentially still above freezing for the valleys...which will reduce accumulation efficiency and create very wet, sloppy snow accumulations below 1200 feet elevation. In this same area, above 1500 feet or so, the snow will be able to achieve closer to 8-12:1 ratios which will allow it to stack up and accumulate much more efficiently with temperatures falling just below freezing mark. Model guidance has between 0.25 to 0.90 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation falling late tonight into Monday morning along and east of I-81...so the exact snowfall totals will again be determined by elevation, surface temperatures and ultimately the snow to liquid ratios over the region. Overall the latest 18z HRRR and 3km NAM nest are holding steady with the precip shield placement and intensity overnight into Monday morning...so that is good to see. The snow will gradually end from west to east in the advisory/waring areas between about 7am to 11am...but will then transition to occasional lake effect snow showers and squalls across the north (Syracuse to Cazenovia, Utica and Rome)during the afternoon and evening hours. Additional light snow accumulations from lake effect will be possible, mainly 1 to 3 inches in locations that do see the snow bands overhead.
The rest of the area further south, including the Twin Tiers and NE PA will be mainly dry Monday afternoon, evening and night. Northwest winds increase during the day Monday, areawide...expecting 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures may briefly get up into the mid to upper 30s...but then look to fall back below freezing in the afternoon as cold air advection strengthens over the region. There could be some localized blowing and drifting snow over the higher elevations and colder areas north and east of Binghamton.
Otherwise, the lake effect snow showers lift north heading into Monday night and out of our area before daybreak on Tuesday. It will be colder, with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
350 PM FORECAST...
High pressure to the south and a trough moving north of the Great Lakes will bring SW flow to the area Tuesday with weak WAA, especially across the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley. Temps will climb into the mid 40s here, with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Conditions will be partly cloudy and dry thanks to the influence from the high pressure system to the south.
A cold Front pushes through Tuesday night, bringing NW flow and cold air back into the region. 850mb temps drop to -11C overnight and remain there through the day. This will generate lake effect snow showers north of a line from Ithaca to Cortland to Oneonta through Tuesday night. Winds shift more northerly during the day Wednesday, pushing the snow showers farther south into the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures will hover around freezing across NY with mid 30s in NEPA thanks to the pocket of cold air aloft hanging around through the day. Low level lapse rates are not as impressive as they were yesterday so the chance for squally snow showers is much lower.
Model soundings show saturation reaching the DGZ so any snow showers should have some nice flakes allowing for 1-3 inches of snow to fall over portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county. This will all depend on where the lake effect showers set up, but the DGZ saturation lends confidence to accumulating snow over this area.
Wednesday afternoon will see the best chance for heavier snow showers, lightening up through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in from the west. Temps Wednesday night will fall into the mid to upper teens across much of the area, with low 20s in the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
350 PM FORECAST...
High pressure will be in control across the area through this period. Consistent westerly flow ebbing between WNW and WSW will advect in a much warmer airmass from the central US for the end of the week through the weekend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the 40s.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain has changed to snow at all terminals. The back edge of snow is already closing in on KELM so improvement to MVFR or higher should occur around 09Z after one final period of snow. The Snow with IFR restrictions should taper off between 09-12Z elsewhere with the exception of lingering snow showers at KSYR.
Restrictions should improve throughout the day but northwest wind gusts from 20-30 knots are expected this afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday Night...Becoming VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 018-036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ017-025-055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ044-045-056-062.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ046- 057.
Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ057-062.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 108 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Several waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary will bring periods of rain changing to snow later this evening. A low pressure across the Carolinas will deepen tonight and move up the east coast with periods of snow and increasing wind.
High pressure builds into the region temporarily on Tuesday before another cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air and snow showers on Wednesday. Drying out with a warming trend for the end of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Trends throughout the night so far as of 1 AM have been for a slower transition to snow and the drier air advecting in faster resulting in snow tapering off sooner. Most locations have gone over to snow across the region with the back edge just entering the Finger Lakes now. The snow should be ending by daybreak across the region. No changes to headlines for now but with the changeover complete some of them may be adjusted or dropped with the main forecast package.
945 PM Update...
The flood watches were ended for all but Sullivan and Delaware as the rain is transitioning to snow along and east of the I81 corridor. Some rainfall rates were still a quarter inch per hour in Sullivan and Delaware so decided to keep the watches until the transition occurs there.
615 PM Update...
Little change to the previous forecast. Temperatures have been falling slowly as an initial cold front moved through a few hours ago. Radar Correlation Coefficient is showing the rain/snow line descending west of I81 and is at about 1500 feet above the radar so about 3000 feet above sea level. Webcams are still showing rain through much of the Finger Lakes even at higher elevations. The NYSM Hartsville location may have just finally switched over as wet bulb temperatures have fallen below 32 and the webcam is showing some snowflakes. SOC mesoanalysis is showing that the surface low has become closed and is starting to deepen. Water vapor satellite is also showing a good baroclinic leaf with cooling cloud tops overspreading our area also indicative of the deepening surface low. The 500 mb trough is still fairly neutral but should start to become more negatively tilted. With the low deepening, we should start to see some dynamic cooling helping the cold air advection with transitioning the rain to snow. The speed at which this occurs will be monitored over the next few hours as that will help determine where flood watches can be dropped or kept or if snow totals need to be adjusted.
345 PM Update
Storm system is on track, with no significant changes to the forecast with this update. The potential for higher elevation snow has increased enough that Bradford, Tioga (NY), Tompkins and Southern Cayuga counties were added to the winter weather advisory for tonight into Monday morning. Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for Otsego and Delaware counties where confidence remains the highest to reach the 7"+ criteria. The latest ensemble guidance, and WPC's Winter Storm Outlook (WSO)
tool is hinting at the potential for higher snow totals to wrap back into parts of CNY and NE PA; specifically the higher elevations of Wayne, eastern Luzerne, eastern Lackawanna, eastern Susquehanna, eastern Broome and far northern Sullivan counties. Held off on upgrading any of these to a low end warning at this time, as uncertainty in the exact thermal profiles and QPF amounts overnight remains rather high. Will need to keep a close watch on when these areas (higher elevations)
changeover and how efficiently the snow starts to accumulate later this evening.
Held onto the flood watch at this time, but the overall rainfall amounts are decreasing with this system and the latest river forecasts no longer show any locations reaching flood stage.
Wanted to make sure no persistent heavy rain develops south and east of the front this evening, before contemplating dropping any of the flood watches. But again, the flood threat is decreasing in our forecast area. Rainfall amounts are still forecast to be 1.5 to 2 inches over the Catskills and eastern portions of NE PA.
Latest water vapor and IR satellite loop shows a large plume of moisture surging north along the East Coast, extending all the way into the Gulf of Mexico...with thunderstorm activity noted over the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida at this time. Regional composite radar loop shows light to moderate rain over Central NY and Northeast PA, extending all the way down the East Coast...with another batch of steadier rain noted over VA/WV/NC region at this time. SPC mesoanalysis shows an elongated area of lower pressure centered over the Carolinas up into Central VA at this time. As the upper level trough moves east and gradually becomes negatively tilted tonight, a better defined surface low should develop and move just south of Long Island by around midnight and near Boston MA by daybreak Monday. Radar and surface observations show that the initial wind shift and cold front has already slid east along an Oneonta to Tunkhannock line; and this front will continue moving east-southeast into the evening hours. Temperatures will fall through the evening, and as sub 0C air aloft moves in the rain will begin to changeover to wet snow...first over the higher terrain of Steuben county by around 7 PM this evening.
The rain will continue changing over to snow over the higher elevations first, then eventually into the valleys by late evening or the predawn hours early Monday morning. The last places to changeover will be the Wyoming Valley, eastern Sullivan, Pike counties, and also along the lake plain near Syracuse where lake modified air keeps the surface temperatures elevated in the mid-30s. WPC HRRR based snow band tool shows the potential for 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates over much of the area along and east of I-81 in central NY and Northeast PA...the limiting factor will be surface temperatures potentially still above freezing for the valleys...which will reduce accumulation efficiency and create very wet, sloppy snow accumulations below 1200 feet elevation. In this same area, above 1500 feet or so, the snow will be able to achieve closer to 8-12:1 ratios which will allow it to stack up and accumulate much more efficiently with temperatures falling just below freezing mark. Model guidance has between 0.25 to 0.90 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation falling late tonight into Monday morning along and east of I-81...so the exact snowfall totals will again be determined by elevation, surface temperatures and ultimately the snow to liquid ratios over the region. Overall the latest 18z HRRR and 3km NAM nest are holding steady with the precip shield placement and intensity overnight into Monday morning...so that is good to see. The snow will gradually end from west to east in the advisory/waring areas between about 7am to 11am...but will then transition to occasional lake effect snow showers and squalls across the north (Syracuse to Cazenovia, Utica and Rome)during the afternoon and evening hours. Additional light snow accumulations from lake effect will be possible, mainly 1 to 3 inches in locations that do see the snow bands overhead.
The rest of the area further south, including the Twin Tiers and NE PA will be mainly dry Monday afternoon, evening and night. Northwest winds increase during the day Monday, areawide...expecting 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures may briefly get up into the mid to upper 30s...but then look to fall back below freezing in the afternoon as cold air advection strengthens over the region. There could be some localized blowing and drifting snow over the higher elevations and colder areas north and east of Binghamton.
Otherwise, the lake effect snow showers lift north heading into Monday night and out of our area before daybreak on Tuesday. It will be colder, with lows in the 20s.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
350 PM FORECAST...
High pressure to the south and a trough moving north of the Great Lakes will bring SW flow to the area Tuesday with weak WAA, especially across the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley. Temps will climb into the mid 40s here, with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Conditions will be partly cloudy and dry thanks to the influence from the high pressure system to the south.
A cold Front pushes through Tuesday night, bringing NW flow and cold air back into the region. 850mb temps drop to -11C overnight and remain there through the day. This will generate lake effect snow showers north of a line from Ithaca to Cortland to Oneonta through Tuesday night. Winds shift more northerly during the day Wednesday, pushing the snow showers farther south into the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures will hover around freezing across NY with mid 30s in NEPA thanks to the pocket of cold air aloft hanging around through the day. Low level lapse rates are not as impressive as they were yesterday so the chance for squally snow showers is much lower.
Model soundings show saturation reaching the DGZ so any snow showers should have some nice flakes allowing for 1-3 inches of snow to fall over portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county. This will all depend on where the lake effect showers set up, but the DGZ saturation lends confidence to accumulating snow over this area.
Wednesday afternoon will see the best chance for heavier snow showers, lightening up through the overnight hours as high pressure builds in from the west. Temps Wednesday night will fall into the mid to upper teens across much of the area, with low 20s in the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
350 PM FORECAST...
High pressure will be in control across the area through this period. Consistent westerly flow ebbing between WNW and WSW will advect in a much warmer airmass from the central US for the end of the week through the weekend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the 40s.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain has changed to snow at all terminals. The back edge of snow is already closing in on KELM so improvement to MVFR or higher should occur around 09Z after one final period of snow. The Snow with IFR restrictions should taper off between 09-12Z elsewhere with the exception of lingering snow showers at KSYR.
Restrictions should improve throughout the day but northwest wind gusts from 20-30 knots are expected this afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday Night...Becoming VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 018-036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ017-025-055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ044-045-056-062.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ046- 057.
Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ057-062.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBGM GREATER BINGHAMTON/EDWIN A LINK FIELD,NY | 23 sm | 9 min | NW 06 | 3/4 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow Mist | 34°F | 30°F | 86% | 29.73 |
Wind History from BGM
(wind in knots)
Binghamton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE