Wednesday, July17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Friendsville, PA

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Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:38PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 5:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 171604
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1204 pm edt Wed jul 17 2019

A wave of low pressure with tropical moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms today into tonight, some with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Heat and humidity builds through
the end of the week thanks to southerly return flow around a
bermuda high. Other passing disturbances the next few days will
result in at least occasional chances for thunderstorms.

Near term through Thursday
1145 am update... Made some minor adjustments to the pops, qpf
and weather grids for today and tonight based on the latest near
term, cams model guidance. After collaboration with surrounding
offices and internal discussion decided it was prudent to issue
a short fused flash-flood watch for the entire CWA through this
evening (late evening across the southern tier and NE pa).

Already seeing areas of heavy rain, with rates 1-1.5 inches per
hour occurring across parts of oneida county this morning, and
we expect this to translate south and east through the remainder
of the day. Pwats are running 2-3 standard deviations above the
climatological mean, around 1.8-2.1 inches. Will also see
increasing surface based instability this afternoon, especially
south of us-20 into central ny and NE pa. Latest hi-res guidance
is showing the potential for localized streaks of heavy rainfall
with the convection; producing upwards of 2-3, perhaps even 4
inches locally. Warm rain processes are extremely efficient in
the tropical environment today.

Flash-flood guidance remains somewhat high across the region,
so that should be a mitigating factor. However, areas that have
seen recent heavy rainfall yesterday or last night will be
especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Parts of the CWA from
the southern catskills, down into NE pa still remain under a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms from SPC this
afternoon evening. Main threat with these storms will be
isolated damaging winds. Otherwise, did make some minor
adjustments to today's temperatures... Raising highs a degree or
two from the ny southern tier south into NE pa... Where it is now
forecast to reach 85-90 early this afternoon.

Previous discussion below
400 am update...

main concern is for the potential for locally heavy rainfall
and resultant possible flash flooding as a wave of low pressure
passes through with tropical moisture, especially northeast
pennsylvania into southern portions of new york. However, a few
storms this afternoon could also contain damaging wind gusts,
which poses another issue.

Several ingredients are coming together that point to a flash
flood threat this afternoon through evening. While a flash flood
watch has not yet been issued, one may get hoisted at any time
based on new data coming in which will help narrow down areas of
greatest threat. Tropical moisture from the remnants of barry,
is riding enhanced southwesterly flow up into our region, ahead
of dampening upper wave. Wave of low pressure is set to come
through during peak heating hours, which then will squeeze a
front from the low track around the southern tier of new york,
southward into pennsylvania. At the same time, forces ascent
will occur ahead of the wave aloft, with our region in the right
entrance region of an upper jet that gets positioned along the
saint lawrence seaway. Not only that, but precipitable water
values and warm cloud depths will both be anomalously high.

Precipitable water of 2.0-2.2 inches, and warm cloud depths of
12-13 kft. Soundings take on a moist-adiabatic appearance yet
still have plenty of instability especially from the twin tiers

This will all promote very efficient downpours high rainfall
rates. High resolution ensemble forecast (href) probabilities
suggest a likelihood of 2000 j kg convective available potential
energy (cape) reaching at least the wyoming valley if not the
ny-pa border, and 1000 j kg CAPE all the way to the ny thruway.

Href also depicts 1 to 1.5 inch ensemble means, with potential
for isolated 3 inch plus maxima showing up in pockets of the
southern tier ny through northeast pa. Instability will be
greatest to the south, yet further north will have more low
level convergence upper level forced ascent. Monitor the weather
closely today, including for possible flash flood watches and
perhaps eventual warnings.

The other concern for today is potential for damaging wind
gusts. Shear will not be overwhelming, but the deep 25-35 knot
flow throughout almost the entire 0-6km layer as well as good
amount of CAPE may promote strong winds. To the north, shear
will be a tad stronger and thus mixing down of gusty winds may
occur. To the south instability will be greater and so wet
microbursts will be possible directly under storm cores given
the storm environment.

While showers and embedded thunder may occur this morning,
especially twin tiers northward; the timing for the main
problems - flash flood potential and strong to severe storms
from gusty winds - will be this afternoon through evening as the
wave of low pressure passes. Activity will then wind down
overnight with very muggy conditions and lows of 65-70 degrees.

A lingering mid level circulation will be across the east-
central portion of the area Thursday. This will allow showers
and embedded thunderstorms mainly from i-81 east during the day.

It will be warm and humid, with highs reaching well into the
80s and dew points near 70. Despite humidity at the surface,
much lower precipitable water values overall along with weak
shear suggest any convective activity will be of low impact.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Chances for showers and some rumbles of thunder continue mainly
east of i-81 Thursday night behind the exiting wave as
temperatures drop into the upper 60s. Oppressive heat and
humidity will then build into the region with a ridge of high
pressure across the SE us. Models continue to indicate
1000-500mb thickness up to 580-582dm, while 850mb temperatures
peak at around 20c to 22c. This will give rise to temperatures
in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday, and in the low to mid 90s
Saturday. With dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices are expected to peak around 96f to 103f Friday, and a
couple degrees warmer on Saturday. Little relief can be expected
for the overnight hours, with lows in the low to mid 70s both
nights. Holding off on heat headlines at the moment given active
weather over the next day, but heat indices will likely meet

Otherwise, with warm, humid, unstable airmass and the ridge
beginning to flatten across ny state, scattered thunderstorms
would not be out of the question both days - especially across
our northern cwa.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Heights start to fall Sunday, with a frontal boundary draped
across the area helping to touch off additional isolated to
scattered storms throughout the day. Slightly cooler
temperatures would be expected, especially north of this
boundary - but highs should still peak in the upper 80s and low
90s. Temperatures fall back into the mid upper 60s Sunday night
with lingering showers and rumbles of thunder ahead of an
approaching surface trough. This will drag a cold front through
the area Monday, with scattered showers and storms lingering
throughout the day before largely tapering off Monday evening.

High pressure slowly starts to build in next Tuesday, and while
most of the area should remain dry, an isolated shower or rumble
of thunder would be possible before this can really take

Temperatures in the 80s Monday afternoon fall back into the 60s
overnight. Even cooler weather is expected Tuesday with highs in
the mid upper 70s and lows in the mid upper 50s.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
A very moist atmosphere is in place which, along with a wave of
low pressure that will pass through the region today, will
result in showers and thunderstorms. Initially, most terminals
will beVFR. However, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
develop midday through afternoon, then shunt east in the
evening while leaving behind ceiling restrictions. Confidence in
thunder is high enough for kith-kelm-kbgm-kavp to include
timing in tafs with the passage of the main wave of low
pressure; indeed there could be more than one storm at any of
those terminals. Further north, thunder is also possible at
ksyr-krme but there is more uncertainty including timing.

Monitor for amendments which could include thunder for ksyr-
krme if confidence increases. Winds will be variable or light
southwest today, veering yet still light this evening. However,
any storm cells could cause erratic wind gusts.


Thursday through Sunday... Unsettled weather pattern continues
with a series of disturbances providing chances for showers and
storms yet it will beVFR most of the time. Brief localized
restrictions possible. Potential for fog each night especially
at kelm, but it will depend on how much debris clouds are
leftover from daytime showers and thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch through this evening for paz038>040-043-044-

Ny... Flash flood watch through this evening for nyz024-045-046-

Flash flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz009-

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mjm mdp
short term... Hlc
long term... Hlc
aviation... Mdp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY24 mi28 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast80°F70°F71%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
1 day ago445
2 days agoNW11

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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