Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 8:00 PM   Moonset 5:15 AM

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FXUS61 KBGM 241053 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 653 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A seasonably strong cold front moves through this morning with falling temperatures this afternoon. Rain showers and mostly cloudy skies persist through the morning into the early afternoon with clearing skies this evening. A cold night is expected tonight with lows falling into the 20s for much of the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
645 AM Update...
showers have mostly moved through with a break for a few hours before another round of scattered rain showers move through with the cold front. Temperatures have been adjusted upwards a couple degrees this morning ahead of the front but otherwise no changes made.

300 AM Update...

Precipitation has continued to struggle to saturate the lower atmosphere this morning so chances of precipitation were lowered further through about 5 am. A strong cold front is already moving through the Great Lakes and will move into western NY this morning. Day time highs will likely be reached in the morning with falling temperatures through the afternoon once the front is through by around 2 pm. Many of the CAMs want to get some showers and possibly some thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Forecast soundings mostly look to stable and dry to get some showers going but in NEPA there will be a brief window where the cold air advection aloft will help steepen the lapse rates and generate some CAPE just after peak heating. Decided to keep a slight chance of thunder in the grids for now only in the Wyoming valley where temperatures will be able to climb into the 60s ahead of the front. With 850 mb temperatures getting close to the 13C temperature difference with Lake Ontario, also increased chances of precipitation in the northern Finger Lakes for possible lake effect rain showers later this morning into the afternoon.

Dry air advects in quickly this afternoon into early evening with precipitation drying up by sunset. Clouds will clear with surface high pressure building in so lows tonight were lowered a couple of degrees. The boundary layer looks to at least try to stay mixed which could limit radiational cooling but given how dry the airmass is, any areas that decouple in the evening with the whole night to radiate may fall into the teens. Thursday begins to moderate but with a low level ridge building in, there will be little to no temperature advection at 850 mb so with the colder air in place, highs will stay at or below average in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM update...

Surface high is in control keeping conditions quiet Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile upper level trough slowly lifts north of our region with a ridge building in behind it. This keeps cooler air in place for one more night allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. Clear skies and light winds during the overnight period may contribute to temperatures falling a few degrees cooler as well. Northerly flow transitions to southerly flow Friday morning allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies persist for most of the day with clouds moving in Friday night ahead of the next system. Temperatures Friday night are expected to range in the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM update...

The upper level ridging expands over our area this weekend then moves slowly east on Tuesday. Despite the high upper level heights this will be an unsettled period. High pressure slides to our east on Saturday with a low pressure system located over the northern midwest. A warm front associated with this system progresses eastwards along with rain showers that move into the region sometime Saturday morning/afternoon. Showers may linger Saturday night into Sunday behind the front. Warm and unstable air mass could result in some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday afternoon. Upper level trough and a surface cold front appears to move through sometime Tuesday/Wednesday bringing more organized showers along with it and another opportunity for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Deep south/southwest flow and ridge over our area allows temperatures during this period to soar well above average especially Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures peak Monday in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. Upper level trough and cold front should bring temperatures back to normal by Wednesday. Granted this system moves a bit quicker we could see the cool down start on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Observations have largely remained VFR with the showers and decided to keep VFR mostly going through the morning hours as upstream observations have shown only spotty restrictions. Low level clouds should still lead to MVFR cigs at ITH, BGM, and ELM. Less certainty of restrictions at SYR and RME so tempos have been added. Dry air moves in this afternoon with VFR conditions developing at all terminals by 0Z and remaining VFR through 12Z tomorrow. If ELM can get more rain later this morning into the afternoon then there is a better chance of some fog development but that is unlikely as of now with rain they have received this past night.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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