Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashtabula, OH
May 21, 2024 1:41 AM EDT (05:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 6:08 PM Moonset 3:38 AM |
LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 957 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 210143 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 943 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track northeast across the Plains Tuesday, extending a cold front east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday, followed by another cold front Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures that cooled quicker than previously forecast, but no other changes were needed with this update.
630 PM Update...
There remains a potential for a few isolated strong thunderstorms in NW OH where the lake breeze continues to interact with convection lifting northeast through the area.
Overall threat for severe remains limited, especially with the sun setting, but will continue to monitor the ongoing convection. These storms should end over the next couple hours, leaving the remainder of tonight dry as upstream convection is not expected to move into the area. Only minor tweaks were made with this update to highlight the area of greatest potential of storms this evening, but the remainder of the forecast is unchanged.
Previous Discussion...
The severe thunderstorm across NW OH has exited land with recent satellite and radar trends suggesting a weakening trend as it continues north across Lake Erie. Otherwise, could see additional isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm coverage further east, mainly associated with the lake breeze near the lakeshore. However, low-level moisture is much more limited further east and southeast, evident by larger T/Td spreads and deeper mixing.
Following sunset, dry conditions should primarily exist overnight and into Tuesday morning, although we'll need to watch residual outflow/lingering showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west overnight. Otherwise, the dynamics that generated thunderstorms today will be similar for Tuesday afternoon and evening, largely lake-breeze driven with limited large- scale forcing evident. However, expecting initiation further east this time as enhanced low- level moisture pools across North and Northeast Ohio, coupled with marginal MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak shear less than 20 knots, and steep 0-3 km lapse rates ranging between 8-9 C/km. Once again, we'll need to watch for residual outflow/showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west Tuesday night.
Near record-highs are possible again for Tuesday across the area, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move into the western and Upper Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The Ohio Valley region will be in a southwesterly deep-layer flow with an enhanced vorticity maxima moving along in the flow. A cold front will slowly sag southeastward through the lower and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and night. A moist and unstable airmass ahead of the slow moving frontal boundary will become destabilized on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Surface dewpoints will rise into the middle 60s. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be around 7 C/km. Moderate destabilization will be possible with MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be modest around 35 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely with a few of them possibly severe with isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail possible Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Afternoon high temperatures will max out once again in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday before convection develops.
The slow moving cold front will reach central and southern Ohio on Thursday. We will maintain higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday for areas along and south of Highway 30 and lesser values closer to the lakeshore. Weak high pressure tries to build in Thursday night with a slight drying trend. High temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler in the middle to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast by next weekend is a little uncertain given the erratic westerly flow beyond day 5. It appears we may have a weak area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a fair weather day. High temperature will be in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. The Ohio Valley region will remain a psuedo deep layer southwesterly flow aloft. The next impulse in that flow may arrive over the weekend of by the later half with the next round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain above average for next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF period as the area remains in the warm sector of an approaching system. A few thunderstorms continue to linger over NW OH, but with how isolated they are opted to not include in the KTOL TAF as confidence is very low that another storm will impact the terminal especially given the weakening environment.
Once these showers exit the area the remainder of the overnight period will be dry as ongoing upstream convection is not expected to persist far enough east to impact KTOL or KFDY. A similar pattern will repeat itself tomorrow with another potential of daytime thunderstorms across the area, some that may be strong with gusty winds the primary concern. Again opted to not include in the TAFs due to the scattered nature expected and low confidence, but the best timing for any convection will be between 18Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday.
Winds will persist from the south-southwest at 4-10 knots through this period, although KCLE and KERI will likely be impact by another lake breeze Tuesday afternoon which will shift the winds to be from the north.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of any thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
MARINE
There is a weak lake breeze near the lakeshore this afternoon. This lake breeze should wash out by sunset this evening. A warm front will move northward across the lake this evening. A weak low will pass north of the lake tonight and allow for south to southwest flow up to 10 knots to return over Lake Erie. A slightly stronger low pressure system will develop over the Upper Midwest Tuesday and the pressure gradient will increase across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will strengthen up to 20 knots. The southwest flow on Wednesday afternoon could mix pretty well and wind speeds may be close to SCA headline. A slow moving cold front will extend across the lake on Wednesday night and winds will shift from the west and then north as high pressure builds over the lake on Thursday. The surface high will move east of the lake on Friday and northeast flow will be favored.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today and Tuesday.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Tuesday night for OHZ010>014-020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 943 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track northeast across the Plains Tuesday, extending a cold front east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday, followed by another cold front Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures that cooled quicker than previously forecast, but no other changes were needed with this update.
630 PM Update...
There remains a potential for a few isolated strong thunderstorms in NW OH where the lake breeze continues to interact with convection lifting northeast through the area.
Overall threat for severe remains limited, especially with the sun setting, but will continue to monitor the ongoing convection. These storms should end over the next couple hours, leaving the remainder of tonight dry as upstream convection is not expected to move into the area. Only minor tweaks were made with this update to highlight the area of greatest potential of storms this evening, but the remainder of the forecast is unchanged.
Previous Discussion...
The severe thunderstorm across NW OH has exited land with recent satellite and radar trends suggesting a weakening trend as it continues north across Lake Erie. Otherwise, could see additional isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm coverage further east, mainly associated with the lake breeze near the lakeshore. However, low-level moisture is much more limited further east and southeast, evident by larger T/Td spreads and deeper mixing.
Following sunset, dry conditions should primarily exist overnight and into Tuesday morning, although we'll need to watch residual outflow/lingering showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west overnight. Otherwise, the dynamics that generated thunderstorms today will be similar for Tuesday afternoon and evening, largely lake-breeze driven with limited large- scale forcing evident. However, expecting initiation further east this time as enhanced low- level moisture pools across North and Northeast Ohio, coupled with marginal MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak shear less than 20 knots, and steep 0-3 km lapse rates ranging between 8-9 C/km. Once again, we'll need to watch for residual outflow/showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west Tuesday night.
Near record-highs are possible again for Tuesday across the area, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move into the western and Upper Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The Ohio Valley region will be in a southwesterly deep-layer flow with an enhanced vorticity maxima moving along in the flow. A cold front will slowly sag southeastward through the lower and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and night. A moist and unstable airmass ahead of the slow moving frontal boundary will become destabilized on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Surface dewpoints will rise into the middle 60s. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be around 7 C/km. Moderate destabilization will be possible with MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be modest around 35 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely with a few of them possibly severe with isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail possible Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Afternoon high temperatures will max out once again in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday before convection develops.
The slow moving cold front will reach central and southern Ohio on Thursday. We will maintain higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday for areas along and south of Highway 30 and lesser values closer to the lakeshore. Weak high pressure tries to build in Thursday night with a slight drying trend. High temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler in the middle to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast by next weekend is a little uncertain given the erratic westerly flow beyond day 5. It appears we may have a weak area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a fair weather day. High temperature will be in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. The Ohio Valley region will remain a psuedo deep layer southwesterly flow aloft. The next impulse in that flow may arrive over the weekend of by the later half with the next round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain above average for next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF period as the area remains in the warm sector of an approaching system. A few thunderstorms continue to linger over NW OH, but with how isolated they are opted to not include in the KTOL TAF as confidence is very low that another storm will impact the terminal especially given the weakening environment.
Once these showers exit the area the remainder of the overnight period will be dry as ongoing upstream convection is not expected to persist far enough east to impact KTOL or KFDY. A similar pattern will repeat itself tomorrow with another potential of daytime thunderstorms across the area, some that may be strong with gusty winds the primary concern. Again opted to not include in the TAFs due to the scattered nature expected and low confidence, but the best timing for any convection will be between 18Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday.
Winds will persist from the south-southwest at 4-10 knots through this period, although KCLE and KERI will likely be impact by another lake breeze Tuesday afternoon which will shift the winds to be from the north.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of any thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
MARINE
There is a weak lake breeze near the lakeshore this afternoon. This lake breeze should wash out by sunset this evening. A warm front will move northward across the lake this evening. A weak low will pass north of the lake tonight and allow for south to southwest flow up to 10 knots to return over Lake Erie. A slightly stronger low pressure system will develop over the Upper Midwest Tuesday and the pressure gradient will increase across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will strengthen up to 20 knots. The southwest flow on Wednesday afternoon could mix pretty well and wind speeds may be close to SCA headline. A slow moving cold front will extend across the lake on Wednesday night and winds will shift from the west and then north as high pressure builds over the lake on Thursday. The surface high will move east of the lake on Friday and northeast flow will be favored.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today and Tuesday.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Tuesday night for OHZ010>014-020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45208 | 2 mi | 42 min | SW 7.8G | 69°F | 56°F | 0 ft | 29.85 | 59°F |
| ASBO1 | 3 mi | 42 min | S 7G | |||||
| GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH | 9 mi | 72 min | S 4.1G | |||||
| CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 15 mi | 42 min | S 5.1G | |||||
| FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH | 27 mi | 54 min | S 13G | 76°F | 62°F | 29.85 | 60°F | |
| 45207 | 32 mi | 32 min | S 7.8G | 73°F | 58°F | 0 ft | 29.85 | 59°F |
| WCRP1 | 33 mi | 42 min | SSE 7G | 72°F | ||||
| EREP1 | 42 mi | 54 min | S 4.1G | |||||
| 45132 - Port Stanley | 46 mi | 42 min | NE 3.9G | 67°F | 61°F | 1 ft | 29.89 | |
| 45206 | 46 mi | 32 min | 7.8G | 75°F | 63°F | 0 ft | 29.85 | 60°F |
| 45164 | 48 mi | 42 min | SSW 5.8G | 68°F | 63°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHZY NORTHEAST OHIO RGNL,OH | 9 sm | 48 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 57°F | 68% | 29.92 |
Cleveland, OH,
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