Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hornbrook, CA

AVIATION
13/06Z TAFs...Gusty winds continue along the Oregon coast but have eased inland. VFR levels continue over area terminals, with high clouds passing over the area. A marine push is expected to bring MVFR ceilings to the Oregon coast later this evening, with chances of MVFR ceilings filling the Umpqua Valley as well. Any ceilings that develop overnight are expected to clear out before Friday afternoon. Other inland areas will remain at VFR through the TAF period, with gusty winds possibly returning to area terminals on Friday afternoon. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 830 PM Thursday, June 12, 2025...High pressure offshore and low pressure inland are expected to persist into the weekend. Seas will remain dominated by a mix of northerly wind wave and fresh swell through the weekend, hovering at or just below advisory criteria with one exception. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of Gold Beach and out 30 nm from shore, especially during Friday afternoon and evening when very steep seas are forecast. A weak front early on Monday is likely to disrupt the pattern and bring improved conditions. -DW/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 506 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025/

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Overview:

The most noteworthy item of interest is the addition to some low-end rainfall chances (10%-20%) Friday afternoon. These may need to be refined and possibly removed due to outliers have more weight towards these chances. However, its a low chance scenario and felt these could be left in for now. Otherwise, the vast majority of the forecast will remain dry through early next week outside of some coastal rainfall/drizzle chances (10%-30%). The real story going through early next week is the prolonged dry stretch of weather where we will likely see further curing of fuels across the area.

Further Details:

For Friday afternoon, we do have a weak upper level disturbance passing over the area which will likely be coupled with hitting convective temperatures in the afternoon. The moisture is the biggest lacking variable, and the biggest player weighted towards these rainfall chances appears to be the NAM Nest, which typical has a wet bias and will overdo PoPs. The HRRR is essentially dry, and this does create some concern because the HRRR typically outperforms the NAM Nest with convection/PoPs. That being said, its only a 10-20 percent chance and mathematically would be correct given the scenario. Just wanted to bring attention to these PoPs being added and the chance of them being overdone. At least the NBM did not introduce thunder at this time which might be the correct outcome.
In fact, tomorrow afternoon may just be a day with towering cumulus and no rainfall actually hitting the ground. We have another day to examine, but the idea here is these PoPs were left in for now even though this may be an outlier weighted function of the NBM.

Otherwise, we are going to likely see further curing of fuels across the landscape through the next several days as rainfall will be essentially non-existent for much of our area. Some early indications are pointing to a deepening trough next weekend (~June 20-21) which would likely bring thunderstorms to the PacNW. Whether or not this impacts our forecast area is not clear at this point, but given this stretch of dry weather followed by thunderstorm chances, we may be looking at the first real chances at wildfire threats across the area and perhaps the first Red Flags of the season. However, this is next weekend and a lot can change, but given the mostly quiet forecast, it was worth diving into further to find potential impacts.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.