Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Monroe, MI
February 8, 2025 1:28 PM EST (18:28 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:36 AM Sunset 5:59 PM Moonrise 1:41 PM Moonset 5:13 AM |
LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
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Area Discussion for Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081755 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow moves in this afternoon and evening with 3 to 5 inches expected across northern Midland, Bay, and Huron Counties where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
- Afternoon and evening snowfall of up to 2 inches in the Metro Detroit to Ohio border region. Snow may mix with light freezing rain or sleet.
- A mid-winter pattern will hold high temps mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s and low temps in the teens through early next week.
- Additional chances for snow Tuesday and Thursday.
AVIATION
Two separate winter weather systems have influence on aviation conditions across the Great Lakes today and tonight. The first produces a band of snow affecting the mbS area, the second clusters of snow showers affecting the DTW area up to PTK. FNT is grazed by both systems through the period. These trends mainly affect associated IFR visibility restrictions dropping into LIFR during the late afternoon/early evening event peak. MVFR ceiling also fills the area in and around the surface trough between systems possibly dropping to IFR at times this evening after the snow ends and while freezing drizzle and fog become a greater component of conditions.
Easterly boundary layer wind shifts NW toward midnight which introduces some cloud breaks but MVFR ceiling is projected to hold through Sunday morning.
For DTW... Refinements on precipitation type continue on the area of mixed snow and rain from central into northern IN at forecast issuance. This activity is projected to develop toward the DTW area this afternoon with primarily snow showers the result. The showery character also suggests a mix of snow pellets is possible with patchy freezing drizzle/rain in between pockets of heavier activity.
Fog is in the forecast as a proxy for freezing drizzle until additional observational evidence occurs. Snow accumulation around 2 inches is most probable and icing potential remains low.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for a snow/snow pellet mix this afternoon/evening. Low to moderate for intervals of freezing drizzle/rain this afternoon and this evening.
* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1045 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
UPDATE...
Strong westerlies aloft with a well defined jet impulse is now beginning its advance across the Great Lakes region. The best jet level forcing will be positioned over Southeast Lower Michigan during the hours surrounding sunset. The confluent forcing is supporting an elevated frontogenetic response across West-central Lower Michigan and points westward. The associated snow field will continue to slip mainly to the east across the Saginaw Bay region and Thumb - later this afternoon and evening. No changes to the going forecast across these regions as this forcing has been the most predictable with the system.
Farther south, still a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to how the progression will play out. The depth of the cold stable dome over Southern Lower Michigan will remain rather steady - which will serve to resist some of the modest moisture advection witnessed upstream over portions of Illinois. Expecting more of a light precipitation shield with embedded showers to be the character. A further complication is the aggressive drying at mid-levels noted on the GOES WV imagery just upstream. Plenty of NWP solution support for occasionally stripping out the moisture in the ice nucleation layer - leaving a sounding predominantly filled with super-cooled water.
Hence, have introduced the prospects for some freezing rain / ice pellets during the primary precipitation window. Snowfall amounts are definitely tenuous - especially if the precipitation coverage is challenged by the amount of work required to climb the steep isentropic surface planted across the area.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
DISCUSSION...
Low amplitude ridging aloft is responsible for the high pressure in place across the Great Lakes early this morning. Arctic air holds temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s this morning, setting the stage for the next round of snowfall this afternoon and evening.
A Pacific wave tracking in from the upper Midwest induces rapid acceleration of the zonal jet streak over the central Plains this morning. Jet exit region dynamics then spread over lower MI through the course of the day, exciting an fgen response along the elevated front in place. Light snow may start as early as late morning but the best overlap of fgen and omega within a relatively deep DGZ centered on 700mb is forecast to occur across Mid Michigan from mid afternoon to early evening.
Some lower static stability above this layer may facilitate a contraction in mesoscale forcing to produce a localized moderate snow band. If this occurs, models produce upwards of 0.30 inches of QPF which favors 5+ inches of snow. In light of latest guidance and overall trends over the past 24 hours favoring farther north placement of the QPF axis and lower QPF overall, thinking this outcome is unlikely and did trim back snow amounts for much of the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Did however leave room for 3 to 5 inches across northern portions of Midland, Bay, and Huron Counties with respect for expected SLRs above 12:1 climo. This prompts a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas with still a non-zero probability to see locally higher amounts should the band develop farther south than 00z guidance suggests. There is also the potential for some lake enhancement invof Port Austin/Port Hope tonight as convergent flow over Lake Huron eventually shifts southward.
Farther south, snow development hinges on whether moisture on the northern flank of Ohio Valley low pressure is able to overcome the resident sfc-750mb dry layer. Trends over the past 24 hours lend increasing confidence for this to occur, with snow likely to lift north of the MI/OH stateline and toward Metro Detroit during the late afternoon and evening as fgen along the 800mb front pivots overhead. Did adjust the snow forecast upward across Metro Detroit and south to a general 0.5 to 2 inch range. Trends in guidance bear monitoring this morning as the snow may have a convective component suggesting potential for a quick burst. If this occurs, localized totals in excess of 2 inches would be possible within a relatively short time period. Also of note for this area is the potential for pockets of freezing drizzle as models struggle maintaining ice nuclei at times, especially during the evening as seeding potential via upper jet forcing wanes.
In between this area and the snow in the north, the I-69 to M-59 corridor will be positioned within a local minima in forcing which prolongs the presence of dry air this afternoon - this holds snow mainly around 1 inch through tonight. The steadiest snow will shift out of the area late this evening and low temps are forecast to settle to within a few degrees of 20F overnight.
There is a chance for lingering light snow in the Thumb into early Sunday morning, otherwise just flurries are anticipated across the area on Sunday as renewed arctic air settles into the area. High pressure eases in from the Midwest through the day promoting benign conditions with light winds that continue through Monday. A shortwave passes across southern Ontario Tuesday morning with its surface reflection tracking to our north but sending a cold front across the region. This presents the next chance of light snow. The next target for a stronger system remains in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame when a deep trough digs across the Plains and sends a surface low up the Ohio Valley.
MARINE...
Influence of high pressure quickly wanes this morning as it departs to the Northeastern US with low pressure lifting through the Ohio Valley to take its place. This system brings widespread snow and a steady wind shift from SE this afternoon to NE by evening and eventually NW by late tonight. Strongest winds develop in the NW flow as colder air is once again drawn south over the central Great Lakes. Expectation is still for a weak enough low/enough detachment from the low center to not support much more than 20kt gusts late Saturday night through daytime Sunday, focused over the northern third of Lake Huron. Another area of high pressure then works across the southern Great Lakes late Sunday-Monday bringing quieter weather and weaker NW turning WSW winds.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ047>049.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating snow moves in this afternoon and evening with 3 to 5 inches expected across northern Midland, Bay, and Huron Counties where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
- Afternoon and evening snowfall of up to 2 inches in the Metro Detroit to Ohio border region. Snow may mix with light freezing rain or sleet.
- A mid-winter pattern will hold high temps mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s and low temps in the teens through early next week.
- Additional chances for snow Tuesday and Thursday.
AVIATION
Two separate winter weather systems have influence on aviation conditions across the Great Lakes today and tonight. The first produces a band of snow affecting the mbS area, the second clusters of snow showers affecting the DTW area up to PTK. FNT is grazed by both systems through the period. These trends mainly affect associated IFR visibility restrictions dropping into LIFR during the late afternoon/early evening event peak. MVFR ceiling also fills the area in and around the surface trough between systems possibly dropping to IFR at times this evening after the snow ends and while freezing drizzle and fog become a greater component of conditions.
Easterly boundary layer wind shifts NW toward midnight which introduces some cloud breaks but MVFR ceiling is projected to hold through Sunday morning.
For DTW... Refinements on precipitation type continue on the area of mixed snow and rain from central into northern IN at forecast issuance. This activity is projected to develop toward the DTW area this afternoon with primarily snow showers the result. The showery character also suggests a mix of snow pellets is possible with patchy freezing drizzle/rain in between pockets of heavier activity.
Fog is in the forecast as a proxy for freezing drizzle until additional observational evidence occurs. Snow accumulation around 2 inches is most probable and icing potential remains low.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for a snow/snow pellet mix this afternoon/evening. Low to moderate for intervals of freezing drizzle/rain this afternoon and this evening.
* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1045 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
UPDATE...
Strong westerlies aloft with a well defined jet impulse is now beginning its advance across the Great Lakes region. The best jet level forcing will be positioned over Southeast Lower Michigan during the hours surrounding sunset. The confluent forcing is supporting an elevated frontogenetic response across West-central Lower Michigan and points westward. The associated snow field will continue to slip mainly to the east across the Saginaw Bay region and Thumb - later this afternoon and evening. No changes to the going forecast across these regions as this forcing has been the most predictable with the system.
Farther south, still a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to how the progression will play out. The depth of the cold stable dome over Southern Lower Michigan will remain rather steady - which will serve to resist some of the modest moisture advection witnessed upstream over portions of Illinois. Expecting more of a light precipitation shield with embedded showers to be the character. A further complication is the aggressive drying at mid-levels noted on the GOES WV imagery just upstream. Plenty of NWP solution support for occasionally stripping out the moisture in the ice nucleation layer - leaving a sounding predominantly filled with super-cooled water.
Hence, have introduced the prospects for some freezing rain / ice pellets during the primary precipitation window. Snowfall amounts are definitely tenuous - especially if the precipitation coverage is challenged by the amount of work required to climb the steep isentropic surface planted across the area.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
DISCUSSION...
Low amplitude ridging aloft is responsible for the high pressure in place across the Great Lakes early this morning. Arctic air holds temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s this morning, setting the stage for the next round of snowfall this afternoon and evening.
A Pacific wave tracking in from the upper Midwest induces rapid acceleration of the zonal jet streak over the central Plains this morning. Jet exit region dynamics then spread over lower MI through the course of the day, exciting an fgen response along the elevated front in place. Light snow may start as early as late morning but the best overlap of fgen and omega within a relatively deep DGZ centered on 700mb is forecast to occur across Mid Michigan from mid afternoon to early evening.
Some lower static stability above this layer may facilitate a contraction in mesoscale forcing to produce a localized moderate snow band. If this occurs, models produce upwards of 0.30 inches of QPF which favors 5+ inches of snow. In light of latest guidance and overall trends over the past 24 hours favoring farther north placement of the QPF axis and lower QPF overall, thinking this outcome is unlikely and did trim back snow amounts for much of the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Did however leave room for 3 to 5 inches across northern portions of Midland, Bay, and Huron Counties with respect for expected SLRs above 12:1 climo. This prompts a Winter Weather Advisory for these areas with still a non-zero probability to see locally higher amounts should the band develop farther south than 00z guidance suggests. There is also the potential for some lake enhancement invof Port Austin/Port Hope tonight as convergent flow over Lake Huron eventually shifts southward.
Farther south, snow development hinges on whether moisture on the northern flank of Ohio Valley low pressure is able to overcome the resident sfc-750mb dry layer. Trends over the past 24 hours lend increasing confidence for this to occur, with snow likely to lift north of the MI/OH stateline and toward Metro Detroit during the late afternoon and evening as fgen along the 800mb front pivots overhead. Did adjust the snow forecast upward across Metro Detroit and south to a general 0.5 to 2 inch range. Trends in guidance bear monitoring this morning as the snow may have a convective component suggesting potential for a quick burst. If this occurs, localized totals in excess of 2 inches would be possible within a relatively short time period. Also of note for this area is the potential for pockets of freezing drizzle as models struggle maintaining ice nuclei at times, especially during the evening as seeding potential via upper jet forcing wanes.
In between this area and the snow in the north, the I-69 to M-59 corridor will be positioned within a local minima in forcing which prolongs the presence of dry air this afternoon - this holds snow mainly around 1 inch through tonight. The steadiest snow will shift out of the area late this evening and low temps are forecast to settle to within a few degrees of 20F overnight.
There is a chance for lingering light snow in the Thumb into early Sunday morning, otherwise just flurries are anticipated across the area on Sunday as renewed arctic air settles into the area. High pressure eases in from the Midwest through the day promoting benign conditions with light winds that continue through Monday. A shortwave passes across southern Ontario Tuesday morning with its surface reflection tracking to our north but sending a cold front across the region. This presents the next chance of light snow. The next target for a stronger system remains in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame when a deep trough digs across the Plains and sends a surface low up the Ohio Valley.
MARINE...
Influence of high pressure quickly wanes this morning as it departs to the Northeastern US with low pressure lifting through the Ohio Valley to take its place. This system brings widespread snow and a steady wind shift from SE this afternoon to NE by evening and eventually NW by late tonight. Strongest winds develop in the NW flow as colder air is once again drawn south over the central Great Lakes. Expectation is still for a weak enough low/enough detachment from the low center to not support much more than 20kt gusts late Saturday night through daytime Sunday, focused over the northern third of Lake Huron. Another area of high pressure then works across the southern Great Lakes late Sunday-Monday bringing quieter weather and weaker NW turning WSW winds.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ047>049.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 13 mi | 89 min | E 19G | 27°F | 30.02 | 19°F | ||
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH | 15 mi | 71 min | 28°F | |||||
TWCO1 | 16 mi | 50 min | 27°F | 21°F | ||||
CMPO1 | 32 mi | 119 min | ESE 12G | 28°F | ||||
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH | 36 mi | 89 min | E 13G | 27°F | 30.07 | |||
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH | 44 mi | 71 min | 28°F | 32°F | ||||
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 49 mi | 89 min | ESE 13G | 27°F | 30.11 |
Wind History for Toledo, OH
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTTF CUSTER,MI | 3 sm | 12 min | E 13G17 | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 29.95 | |
KDUH TOLEDO SUBURBAN,MI | 17 sm | 13 min | E 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 29.94 | |
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI | 20 sm | 13 min | ENE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 29.95 | |
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI | 22 sm | 35 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 18°F | 64% | 29.99 | |
KTDZ TOLEDO EXECUTIVE,OH | 24 sm | 35 min | ENE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 29.95 | |
KYIP WILLOW RUN,MI | 24 sm | 35 min | E 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 28°F | 19°F | 69% | 29.98 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTTF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTTF
Wind History Graph: TTF
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Detroit, MI,

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