Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oswayo, PA
February 19, 2025 7:55 AM EST (12:55 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:55 AM Sunset 5:46 PM Moonrise 12:13 AM Moonset 9:51 AM |
LEZ041 Expires:202502191015;;143108 Fzus51 Kbuf 190334 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1034 pm est Tue feb 18 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-191015- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1034 pm est Tue feb 18 2025
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Wednesday - .
Tonight - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of snow showers overnight.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow likely.
Thursday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely in the evening, then just a chance of snow showers overnight.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers.
Saturday and Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1034 pm est Tue feb 18 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-191015- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1034 pm est Tue feb 18 2025
waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ005
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Area Discussion for State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 191011 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA.
* An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
* Gusty winds Thursday night and Friday precede a warming trend into the last week in February, with dry weather expected through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid to high cloud deck overspreading central and western PA early this morning. Sfc ridge axis building over western and central PA has allowed winds to decrease to a light WSW breeze, allowing sfc temperatures to range from the single digits above and below zero over the north to the 10 to 15F range over southeast PA. With just a bit of wind, early morning chills will range from -5 to -10F across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns and the single digits above zero over the Susquehanna Valley and adjacent south- central zones.
It will be increasingly cloudy throughout the region today, as mid cloud thickens and lowers as low pressure tracks towards the mid Atlantic coast bringing significant snowfall southern Virginia and North Carolina. Higher elevations of Somerset County may see a rogue flurry this afternoon, but otherwise it will be dry in central PA. Temps will increase by only 3-4 deg F compared to Tuesday, but wind chill values will moderate by 10-15 deg F DOD as we head into the afternoon thanks to lighter winds. Highs Wednesday will only reach 15 to 20F over the northern tier, ranging to the mid to upper 20s south.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Skies remain cloudy tonight as the sfc low moves offshore and upper level low digs through Ohio and towards western PA by 12z Thu. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the single digits north and teens south, which is 5 to 10 degrees below late February climo.
Thu forecast on track as a deep 500mb closed low (-2 to -3SD)
tracks over southern PA between 20/0000UTC and 21/0000UTC.
Despite limited moisture, large scale forcing and height falls associated with the deep mid/upper level low should generate enough lift to produce some light/fluffy (dry) snow accumulation (SLR >18-20:1) across central PA beginning before dawn on Thursday and lifting east through the day. Increasing NW flow into Thursday night will enhance upslope snow shower activity over the western and northern Alleghenies with up to 3 inches of powder in the perennial snowbelts, summits, and ski resorts to the west of US-219 ending 12Z Friday. Thursday will be windy and quite cold even by late February standards with max temps 15 to 25 degrees below the historical average and minimum wind chills -10 to +10F. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph will be common Thursday evening through Friday.
Blustery NW flow continues into early Friday along with snow showers/flurries over the Allegheny Plateau. The wind will gradually diminish into Friday night as high pressure ridge slides into the region. Snowfall and max wind gusts Thursday and Friday are projected to remain below advisory criteria, but could still impact travel, especially over the higher elevations.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The arctic punch will moderate by the weekend with temperatures trending warmer/closer to long term averages Saturday-Tuesday thanks to weak ridging aloft and at the surface. Model variability with fast moving/moisture lacking clipper type disturbances in the northern stream will favor low POPs on balance this weekend into early next week. No significant precipitation is expected through Monday, which will be a welcome break after a seemingly incessant batch of winter storms every few days over the last couple of weeks.
By Monday night into Tuesday, another more potent shortwave is progged to drift across Pennsylvania as low pressure passes north of Pennsylvania. Still plenty of time for this system to evolve, but the most likely scenario will be a mix of rain and snow at higher elevations with plain rain favored for elsewhere as temperatures trend above average for the last week in February.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Layered high to mid level clouds will quickly overspread central PA this morning and continue to blanket the airspace through tonight. Flight cats will remain VFR through the 19/06Z TAF period at 6/7 terminals; KBFD is likely to trend to MVFR (>60% chance) by this evening/00Z Thu.
Deep upper level low tracking across PA Thursday will bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions (>70% chance) in light snow.
25-35kt sfc wind gusts from 300-330 degrees are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon with >50% confidence in IFR snow showers impacting KBFD and KJST.
Outlook...
Fri.. MVFR/IFR at KBFD & KJST (MVFR to low VFR elsewhere). Snow showers and gusty winds diminishing by Friday night.
Sat-Sun...VFR/no sig wx.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 511 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA.
* An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
* Gusty winds Thursday night and Friday precede a warming trend into the last week in February, with dry weather expected through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid to high cloud deck overspreading central and western PA early this morning. Sfc ridge axis building over western and central PA has allowed winds to decrease to a light WSW breeze, allowing sfc temperatures to range from the single digits above and below zero over the north to the 10 to 15F range over southeast PA. With just a bit of wind, early morning chills will range from -5 to -10F across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns and the single digits above zero over the Susquehanna Valley and adjacent south- central zones.
It will be increasingly cloudy throughout the region today, as mid cloud thickens and lowers as low pressure tracks towards the mid Atlantic coast bringing significant snowfall southern Virginia and North Carolina. Higher elevations of Somerset County may see a rogue flurry this afternoon, but otherwise it will be dry in central PA. Temps will increase by only 3-4 deg F compared to Tuesday, but wind chill values will moderate by 10-15 deg F DOD as we head into the afternoon thanks to lighter winds. Highs Wednesday will only reach 15 to 20F over the northern tier, ranging to the mid to upper 20s south.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Skies remain cloudy tonight as the sfc low moves offshore and upper level low digs through Ohio and towards western PA by 12z Thu. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the single digits north and teens south, which is 5 to 10 degrees below late February climo.
Thu forecast on track as a deep 500mb closed low (-2 to -3SD)
tracks over southern PA between 20/0000UTC and 21/0000UTC.
Despite limited moisture, large scale forcing and height falls associated with the deep mid/upper level low should generate enough lift to produce some light/fluffy (dry) snow accumulation (SLR >18-20:1) across central PA beginning before dawn on Thursday and lifting east through the day. Increasing NW flow into Thursday night will enhance upslope snow shower activity over the western and northern Alleghenies with up to 3 inches of powder in the perennial snowbelts, summits, and ski resorts to the west of US-219 ending 12Z Friday. Thursday will be windy and quite cold even by late February standards with max temps 15 to 25 degrees below the historical average and minimum wind chills -10 to +10F. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph will be common Thursday evening through Friday.
Blustery NW flow continues into early Friday along with snow showers/flurries over the Allegheny Plateau. The wind will gradually diminish into Friday night as high pressure ridge slides into the region. Snowfall and max wind gusts Thursday and Friday are projected to remain below advisory criteria, but could still impact travel, especially over the higher elevations.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The arctic punch will moderate by the weekend with temperatures trending warmer/closer to long term averages Saturday-Tuesday thanks to weak ridging aloft and at the surface. Model variability with fast moving/moisture lacking clipper type disturbances in the northern stream will favor low POPs on balance this weekend into early next week. No significant precipitation is expected through Monday, which will be a welcome break after a seemingly incessant batch of winter storms every few days over the last couple of weeks.
By Monday night into Tuesday, another more potent shortwave is progged to drift across Pennsylvania as low pressure passes north of Pennsylvania. Still plenty of time for this system to evolve, but the most likely scenario will be a mix of rain and snow at higher elevations with plain rain favored for elsewhere as temperatures trend above average for the last week in February.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Layered high to mid level clouds will quickly overspread central PA this morning and continue to blanket the airspace through tonight. Flight cats will remain VFR through the 19/06Z TAF period at 6/7 terminals; KBFD is likely to trend to MVFR (>60% chance) by this evening/00Z Thu.
Deep upper level low tracking across PA Thursday will bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions (>70% chance) in light snow.
25-35kt sfc wind gusts from 300-330 degrees are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon with >50% confidence in IFR snow showers impacting KBFD and KJST.
Outlook...
Fri.. MVFR/IFR at KBFD & KJST (MVFR to low VFR elsewhere). Snow showers and gusty winds diminishing by Friday night.
Sat-Sun...VFR/no sig wx.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 77 mi | 61 min | 16°F | 30.32 | ||||
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 81 mi | 61 min | W 9.9G | 16°F | 30.30 | 8°F | ||
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 81 mi | 55 min | SW 16G | 14°F | 30.40 |
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State College, PA,

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