Monroe, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monroe, MI

June 23, 2024 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 10:14 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017

Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 230358 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1158 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood watch through tonight for Midland/Bay/Saginaw counties.

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight over much of southeast Michigan, with damaging winds being the main hazard, but isolated tornadoes also possible.

- Return to more seasonable conditions Sunday. A few widely scattered showers possible to finish the weekend.

AVIATION

Complex of showers and thunderstorms will track across southeast Michigan through the early morning hours. While a steady decline in coverage of thunderstorms will occur with time as instability wanes, radar trends warrant an inclusion to highlight the potential at all locations. Trailing area of MVFR stratus with some lingering showers to accompany the fropa mid-late morning. Enough instability may exist to allow for an isolated thunderstorm, but coverage to limited too highlight attm. Daytime heating leaves a broad lower VFR diurnal cu field, with some widely scattered showers/thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. Pre-frontal winds from the south to southwest, becoming northwesterly and turning modest gusty Sunday afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Main window for thunderstorm development centered 07z-09z early Sunday morning. An isolated thunderstorm possible mid-late morning Sunday with the cold frontal passage and again with daytime heating late Sunday afternoon, but likelihood of occurrence remains very low.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms late tonight. Low Sunday.

* High for ceilings aob 5kft Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 932 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

UPDATE...

Attention for the overnight period remains upstream, as convective trends continue to evolve across southern Wisconsin with forced ascent along an ESE propagating surface wave and frontal zone engaging the existing deeper instability reservoir residing to the west. East-southeast propagating linear convective cluster marking the lead edge of this activity now translating across south-central WI. Maintenance and possible upscale growth of this activity does remain a possibility given projected trajectory of the governing wave, but with a noted decrease in available instability evident with eastward extent looming as a definitive deterrent in prospective convective coverage/vigor. This remains evident within the CAM solution space, with some members carrying some remnant activity across most or all of SE MI while others extinguish activity on arrival. Marginal Risk designation remains for the overnight period to acknowledge an isolated risk of strong wind gusts. Otherwise, heavy rainfall the focus with any activity that arrives, noting the PW of 1.87 on the 00z DTX upper air sounding.
Ongoing radar trends suggest the Tri-cities remain best positioned for episodic shower/embedded thunder production overnight, so plan to hold tight with the flood watch with this update.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

DISCUSSION...

Severe potential has yet to be realized so far today, but showers and storms still on the way. Hi-res guidance now suggests that the best chances for storms are this evening from 22-02Z. Limited availability of instability continues to be a problem for updraft development, and peak available SBCAPE reaches just over 1000 J/kg in the Thumb. Wind damage is the main threat with this system, and DCAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg where rain is expected. Bulk shear values of 30-40 knots are currently in place, so if an updraft can develop, it is possible to see a severe storm develop still.
Severe hail looks unlikely, but given the combination of 0-1km shear of 20 knots, LCL heights below 1000 mAGL, and long hodograph lengths at the lower levels mean that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Further showers may develop along the stationary front beyond 02Z, which looks to impact Midland and Bay counties but will dependent on how far north the front propagates. Frontal passage brings chances for showers to the entire CWA, but there has been an increasing signal for banding along the front to break apart after sunset.

Flood watch remains in effect through 6am tomorrow for Midland, Bay, and Saginaw counties. MRMS analysis has suggested that ~0.25" or less has fallen so far over Midland and Bay counties. PWATs over 2 inches still suggest potential, and if isolated showers still develop, localized downpours can still produce flooding. Ensemble means suggest 0.5" of rain will fall in total, while the latest HRRR guidance suggests 0.75-1". Forecasted storm total QPF remains between 1-1.5" in the flood watch due to the aforementioned isolated shower potential and that these totals can occur in a short amount of time. WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for this area.

As the low pressure moves out early this morning, colder air advection allows overnight temperatures to dip down into the low 60s. Trough axis passes overhead on Monday and weak ridge builds in behind. Setup allows for warm, moist air to return to the region and produce similar 90 over 70 temperature and dew points to toady's current conditions. Shortwave disturbance is set to move into the region on Tuesday evening ahead of a larger trough on Wednesday.
Chances for showers and storms return with this system Wednesday, and a cold front is set to track across the region. High pressure and cool, dry air fills in behind the front and brings high temperatures back down into the low to mid 80s on Thursday and Friday. ThetaE gradient across the front is around 20 degrees K, helping drop dew points down into the 50s. Zonal flow aloft keeps calm conditions before the next system is set to move in over the weekend.

MARINE...

A stalled front will linger across northern Lake Huron the rest of today into tonight with a developing low pressure system over the Midwest tracking along it tonight. This will keep a showers and thunderstorms going across that area through that time as well. This low will then pull a cold front through the region Sunday morning into the afternoon with a secondary low possibly developing along it Sunday afternoon which would track across southern Lake Huron.
Increased southwest winds ahead of the front will increase to around 25 knots later tonight thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.
Winds will become more northwesterly Monday behind the passing system and possible secondary cold front early Monday morning. After that high pressure will quickly build back into the region keeping winds minimized to start the new week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ047-048-053.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi65 minS 14G15 82°F 29.7370°F
45200 13 mi45 min12G18 82°F 80°F29.7470°F
45165 16 mi35 minS 14G16 82°F 79°F1 ft
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi47 minSW 8G13 83°F 29.7065°F
TWCO1 16 mi36 min17G22 82°F 79°F69°F
CMPO1 32 mi95 minSW 9.9G13 83°F
45202 35 mi35 min9.7G14 83°F 78°F0 ft29.7568°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi65 minSSW 14G16 82°F 29.74
45201 39 mi35 min14G18 82°F 79°F1 ft29.7870°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi47 minSSW 5.1G9.9 83°F 78°F29.7358°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi65 minSSW 9.9G15 84°F 29.71


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Detroit, MI,




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