Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:19PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 1:07 AM EDT (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:51PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 290410 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1210 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

AVIATION.

Model soundings show subsidence down into the 3.5 kft agl layer that corresponds with dry slot. Given satellite trends scaled way back on the clouds/cigs overnight. Daytime heating will lead to stratocumulus increase by the late morning. A well organized convergence axis is expected to push into the Saginaw Valley Tuesday afternoon which could result into shower development. Decided to go with a TEMPO group for showers at KFNT/KMBS 20-23Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for cigs less than 5000 ft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 404 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

DISCUSSION .

Large scale ascent along the slowly eastward migrating frontal zone will continue to support rainfall through the remainder of this afternoon. The afternoon uptick in rainfall associated with increased frontal forcing is underway. PWAT values on the 12Z RAOB this morning came in at 1.24 inches, which supports pockets of mostly moderate rainfall with any of the stronger convective showers. Early day cloud cover has kept instability very limited with the stronger mid level lapse rates displaced to the west. This will keep any thunder chances low. Expect rain to taper off for the western counties by around 8 pm and clearing east of Michigan by around 11 pm this evening as the mid level dry slot moves into the region.

Stronger height falls fill in behind the dry slot while the broad troughing further settles into the region. Expecting mostly dry conditions during the overnight period with the best forcing that was along the frontal zone slides east along with the better moisture quality. The first wave of colder air also arrives tonight as 850 mb temperatures drop to around the 4-5C range by Tuesday morning. Cool start to the morning tomorrow with overnight low temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s. With the cooler airmass in place, it looks like there will only be about a 10-15 degree diurnal bump in high temperatures with Tuesday highs in the low to mid 60s.

A constant stream of shortwave energy will work through the mean longwave trough throughout the remainder of the work week. Southwest winds Tuesday night into Wednesday offer minimal warm and moist advection, but just enough to support chances for scattered and light rain showers for the northern half of the CWA. The better potential for rain will hold off until Wednesday morning associated with a shortwave and cold front. Likely chances for rain will remain through much of the day period. Favorable timing during peak heating with steep mid-level lapse rates of around 7.5 C/km may present a chance for some general thunder with the more favorable locations north of I-69. Look for highs in the 60s again with no real cold air advection during the day.

The coldest air of the week diving out of Canada will begin to push into Michigan on Thursday into Friday as an unsettled pattern sets up. This will bring below average temperatures with high temperatures settling into the 50s through the weekend. Periodic showers expected during this time will be dictated by placement of the mean trough and various shortwaves passing through the flow. Cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will increase overlake instability and add to the potential for additional showers and increased cloud cover.

MARINE .

Today's cold front is slowly departing to the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a secondary front close behind over Lake Michigan. The wave of low pressure currently over Georgian Bay will remain weak enough and far enough north and east to limit the wind response to 15 to 20 kt tonight. Winds shift from northwest to southwest after sunset as the secondary front moves through while the widespread showers gradually move out. Breezy southwest wind continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periodic showers returning late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Waterspouts will then become possible over Lake Huron during the late week period as much cooler air aloft filters into the region.

HYDROLOGY .

A slow moving cold front will track through southeast Michigan through this evening. Moderate rainfall may produce storm total rainfall amounts averaging around 0.5 inch, before tapering off during the evening hours. Favored locations for the highest totals will be along eastern portions of Michigan where residence time under the rainfall will be the longest. These amounts are not expected to pose significant flooding potential outside of water ponding on roads and in other prone areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . TF HYDROLOGY . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45165 16 mi18 min WSW 14 G 18 56°F 66°F1 ft
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi50 min SW 5.1 G 11 55°F 1008.7 hPa51°F
TWCO1 16 mi18 min SW 18 G 21 55°F 66°F53°F
CMPO1 32 mi98 min WSW 7 G 9.9 55°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 8 56°F 67°F1008.7 hPa51°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi68 min WSW 7 G 14 56°F 1008.8 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi73 minSW 410.00 miFair52°F50°F93%1008.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi73 minWSW 610.00 miFair54°F53°F97%1008.5 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi73 minSW 410.00 miFair53°F51°F94%1009.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi75 minSW 99.00 miA Few Clouds53°F50°F89%1008.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi75 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1008.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW5W3NW7N3CalmCalmNW3W11
G18
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NW9W3W4W3SW5SW4SW5
1 day agoSW8
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SW9NW9NW6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW8SW11
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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