Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:04PM Friday December 6, 2019 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 061705 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1205 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

AVIATION.

Northwest winds, gusting around 25 knots early this afternoon are helping to bring in colder and drier air into southeast Michigan, lifting cloud bases 3000-4000 feet. Lowering inversion height and surface ridge axis building into the area is expected to allow for mostly clear skies developing early this evening, and lasting through most of the night. Possible northwest lake effect streamers (high MVFR cigs) tonight expected to remain transient and impact mostly the Thumb region. Mid clouds (10-15 kft) will overspread southeast Michigan toward sunrise, as the ridge axis tracks east tomorrow morning, but winds remaining very light through 18z Saturday. Low chance of some MVFR diurnal cu development late in the morning as well.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs aob 5000 feet this afternoon, low this evening.

* Low for crosswind from 330 exceeding threshold early this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1034 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE .

Low-level northwest flow tapping into moisture off of Lake Superior/Lake Huron in conjunction with sufficient instability for winter standards have produced isolated snow showers across the Thumb for this morning. Latest guidance suggests weak potential instability will build across the Thumb where axis of greatest moisture resides, suggesting the chance for snow showers will continue across the Thumb. While not expecting significant accumulation totals (potential for around a half inch is there), snow showers will have the potential to reduce visibilities to around a half-inch for a brief period of time with embedded wind gusts up to 25 mph. As a result, have added slight to chance PoPs across the Thumb through the afternoon. Forecast for the remaining cwa remains unchanged as a building high pressure systems produces dry weather, albeit slightly breezy with wind gusts around 20 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 357 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

DISCUSSION .

Clipper system is sweeping through Michigan early this morning. Current track of the 1012 mb low is placing the heavier snow showers with the best forcing across northern lower Michigan. The southern edge of precipitation passing over the Thumb and Tri-Cities is competing with some drier low level air, which has caused precipitation to struggle so far this morning. Any lingering precipitation through this morning may see rain mixing in with light snow showers as mid level dry air pushes in and strips moisture out of the DGZ. Precipitation chances will come to an end by around 7-8 am as the surface low moves off to the east.

Northwest flow in the wake of the clipper system will carry some lake moisture into southeast Michigan into the afternoon, though the overall airmass moving in is quite dry. Forecast soundings suggest some saturation with respect to ice within the cloud layer. This may support some snow flurries with the diurnal boost and increase in low level lapse rate, but the dry sub-cloud layer will be limiting the potential for flakes to reach the surface. A surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes into tonight will help bring an end to precipitation potential and also bring a decreasing trend in clouds. Reinforcement of colder air on the east side of this surface high keeps temperatures around the mid the 30s for today with lows tonight dropping into the upper teens and low 20s. Ridging/zonal flow in the mid/upper levels helps maintain dry conditions over the weekend while the surface high pressure slides into the eastern Ohio Valley on Saturday. Temperatures remain on the cool side to start the weekend with high temperatures in the 30s before increasing low level south/southwesterly flow brings a surge of warm air advection Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will climb into the 40s on Sunday with an increase winds resulting from a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.

Precipitation associated with a low pressure system moving across Hudson Bay/Ontario during the weekend will remain to the north, but it will draw a frontal boundary southward into the central Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will set the stage for the next round of precipitation as a strong southern stream jet crossing the central/southern plains leads to development of a low pressure system that will ride this frontal boundary northeastward into Michigan. Temperatures in the 40s on Monday and the track of this low will allow p-type for bulk of this event to fall as rain with a chance to see a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday as colder air begins to filter into Michigan behind a cold front.

An arctic airmass will then plunge into the Great Lakes Tuesday through mid-week bringing well below average temperatures and lake effect snow. Lead cold air advection with westerly winds will likely bring lake effect snow showers from Lake Michigan into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. Temperatures at 850 mb will drop to around -20C across southeast Michigan by Wednesday resulting in high temperatures that day in the 20s and low temperatures Wednesday night in the lower teens. Continued cold west northwest flow across Lake Michigan will allow potential for more lake effect snow showers streaming southeast Michigan throughout Wednesday as well. Arctic airmass begins to lift out of the region late Thursday bringing a gradual warming trend back to more average temperatures into the weekend.

MARINE .

Strong northwest wind will develop and gust to near-gales again this afternoon as low pressure rapidly departs east. The northwest fetch will build waves to hazardous levels in the exposed nearshore waters of the Thumb where a small craft advisory remains in effect into tonight. Flow then veers to southwesterly as warm air floods into the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Monday, gust potential limited by the stable southerly fetch. Conditions become more unsettled for the remainder of next week as the pattern becomes more active and colder air filters into the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441- 442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF UPDATE . AM DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi108 min NW 18 G 19 38°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi54 min N 7 G 17 40°F 1020.4 hPa23°F
TWCO1 16 mi28 min N 16 G 23
CMPO1 32 mi78 min NNW 18 G 23 38°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi48 min NNW 19 G 20 38°F 1020.3 hPa (+3.6)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi54 min NW 16 G 20 38°F 38°F1019.5 hPa30°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi48 min NNW 8.9 G 17 38°F 1020.3 hPa (+3.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi53 minNNW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast39°F19°F46%1020.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi53 minNNW 14 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F24°F56%1019.6 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi53 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F25°F55%1020.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi55 minNW 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F23°F53%1020.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi55 minNNW 15 G 2310.00 miOvercast40°F23°F51%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W6W5CalmCalmS4CalmS3S3S5S4S4SW3SW9SW10SW10W9W6W7NW13
G18
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1 day agoW9NW10
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--NW11--W10--W7W10W9W10W8W8W6W4W5SW4W6W6W7W13W10NW7
2 days agoSW13
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SW9SW8SW9SW10SW10SW10SW9SW12SW9SW9SW9SW8SW10W8W8SW8W9W7W9W11
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.