Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM

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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 171928 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 328 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Pop-up thunderstorms increase in isolated to scattered fashion this afternoon, although severe weather is not expected with this activity.

- An Air Quality Alert is in effect for portions of Southeast Michigan Saturday, including Metro Detroit.

- Very warm and muggy conditions will be in-place this weekend with additional opportunities for thunderstorms Sunday and again early next week.

DISCUSSION

Partial clearing after morning showers has allowed for areas of sufficient insolation which converts building instability to surface- based CAPE. Diurnal convective development has initiated in isolated to widely-scattered fashion with surface dewpoints near 60F. Severe threat remains quite low given 0-6 km bulk shear values AOB 25 knots, therefore expect mostly short-lived pulse-like thunderstorms.
Latest CAMs suggest a slight increase in coverage with the arrival of a low-amplitude shortwave aloft. Varying storm motions possible as a weak low pressure system/triple-point stalls over Midland.
Multiple boundaries within the vicinity offer several additional point-sources for lift, augmented by MUCAPEs of 750-1250 J/kg.
Steepest lapse rates should be located within the 500-400 mb level, exceeding 8 C/km for part of the afternoon while the lower layer settles closer to moist adiabatic. Some pea-sized hail and few gusts to 40 mph are the main threats today. Storms wane after 9 PM as the mid-levels warm slightly and surface-based activity is cut-off by the development of a nocturnal inversion. A couple lingering showers are possible early tonight before the surface pattern gets washed out.

Weak ridging ensues Saturday with anticyclonic flow noted above 700 mb. Dewpoints remain elevated (near 60F), but forecast soundings reveal thermodynamic profiles that are a bit too warm to facilitate convective updrafts. High temperatures warm to near 80F for most areas while light southeast winds draw slightly cooler air to the coastal communities off the lakes. Clouds thin heading into the afternoon hours as a subsidence inversion develops between 800 and 700 mb.

Flow veers southwesterly Sunday as a deep closed low drifts into northwestern Ontario. An attendant cold front extending well south of the surface reflection washes out over Lake Michigan midday as the warm advection arm traces back to northern Texas. Locally, temperatures top out well above normal as highs peak in the low to mid 80s marked by 850 mb temps of 14-15C. Note that some model variance remains between the ensemble and deterministic solutions as it pertains to thermodynamics. Additional differences noted in QPF magnitude/extent, but most solutions do agree that some convective storms should arise during the PM hours. Dewpoints in the lower 60s and steep low-level lapse-rates should activate surface parcels as shortwave perturbations embedded within the periphery of the leading height fall gradient arrive. Agreed with NBM PoP increase to Slight Chance across most of the forecast area. Low-end potential exists for additional storms Sunday night as a more robust CVA response streams through the drying mid-levels.

An unsettled pattern continues early next week as the synoptic ridge becomes stationary over The Appalachians and the northern stream jet remains active just off to the west. Several shortwaves will eject eastward out of stalled longwave trough Monday and Tuesday with additional ThetaE intrusions. Strong to severe storms would be most probable Tuesday as dewpoints peak in the mid 60s and 0-6 km bulk shear approaches 30 knots. The upper level configuration unlocks Wednesday as an energetic low drops into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska triggering ridge amplification over the Intermountain West. This kicks the jet eastward Wednesday along with a cold front which could initiate some preceding convection locally, depending on timing and southern stream wave interactions. Post- frontal conditions should be noticeably cooler for the back half of next week with a return to near-normal readings.

MARINE

Scattered showers potentially producing thunderstorms will move over Lake Huron and Lake Erie this afternoon as a weak low pressure center and frontal boundary move across the region. Gentle southerly winds over Lake Huron will back to become more easterly this evening, decreasing down to about 5 knots. These calm winds and moist conditions will lead to some patchy fog overnight. Fog over the lake will hang around for a bit longer than over land, lasting into the early afternoon. Benign and predominantly southerly winds persist through the weekend with a weak cold front moving through on Sunday. Potential for more unsettled conditions Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger system moves into the area. This system will bring moderate southerly winds as well as showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

AVIATION...

A stalled cold front over the region will excite a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon during peak heating. A lack of flow will result in scattered coverage with slow moving storms making it challenging to time out at any site this afternoon. Highest confidence is in the higher terrain where FNT and PTK reside with a line of showers already initiating. Lower confidence over the 3 Detroit area sites as the activity will only slowly drift toward them through the later afternoon. Opted to go with a tempo for each location though VCTS was considered for the Detroit sites. Storms have already initiated and chances will carry through 01Z Sat. Heavy downpours and/or a highly localized gust to or in excess of 40 knots will be possible with the strongest activity. Attention tonight turns to fog chances as light winds and clearing skies lead to good radiating conditions.

For DTW/D21 Convection...DTW should reside on the eastern edge of much of the convection that is ongoing as of 17Z. Most of the activity is expected to stay to the west though there is a chance it could drift over the airspace later this afternoon. The best window for a thunderstorm or two will occur between 21Z-01Z. Locally heavy downpours, brief visibility restrictions, or a highly localized wind gust to or in excess of 40 knots will be possible with any stronger activity.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings 5000 ft or less this afternoon outside of convection.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, between 18Z - 01Z Sat.

* Low for ceilings and visibilities to drop below 200ft or 1/2SM tonight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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