Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:59PM Sunday September 19, 2021 10:56 AM EDT (14:56 UTC) Moonrise 6:50PMMoonset 4:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 957 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 957 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the great lakes and eastern canada this morning will build across the northeast today and then settle along the new england coast on Monday. The high will give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 191443 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1043 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Sunny and seasonably cool temperatures today as high pressure takes control of the Northeast. Chilly temperatures follow tonight before we warm up slightly tomorrow as mostly sunny skies persist. Dry weather continues through at least Tuesday before a system late in the wake could bring our next chance for showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. UPDATE . As of 1045 AM EDT, skies remain mostly sunny, outside of a few cloud patches across some higher elevations and the upper Hudson Valley. No changes to forecast other than to increase wind speeds slightly within the Hudson River Valley as north/northeast winds increase to 10-15 mph as mixing deepens, with perhaps a few gusts up to 20 mph.

Previous discussion . As of 6:40am . Only a few adjustments needed to latest forecast this morning. The main one being to add a bit more fog in valley areas due to radiational cooling overnight. GOES16 nighttime fog channel and NYS mesonet cameras highlight this nicely. We also added frost to parts of the southern Adirondacks where temperatures fell into the mid 30s (Old Forge mesonet now reading 36 degrees). Otherwise, early fog will quickly burn off this morning thanks to abundant sunshine. Chilly and fall like temperatures this morning should respond to the sunshine as well and warm up into the 60s and eventually 70s this afternoon.

Previous discussion . Strengthening surface high from Ontario builds into the Northeast as an amplified ridge shifts eastward out of the Great Lakes. Strong subsidence aloft and at the surface will result in cloudless skies but somewhat breezy northerly winds will keep temperatures feeling seasonably cool as dry Canadian air advects southward. Winds down the north- south oriented Hudson Valley will become sustained between 5 - 15mph with gusts to 20mph at times which will make it feel cool at times. Forecast soundings show a pronounced subsidence inversion around 900 - 925hPa which will limit the depth of boundary layer mixing. Therefore, only expecting high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s with only mid to upper 60s in the higher terrain and hill towns.

Once we lose daytime heating, temperatures will drop quickly as dew points in the 40s, calm winds and clear skies support nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Expecting overnight lows to be some of the coolest night of the month as nearly all sites likely fall in the mid to upper 40s by sunrise. In fact, the southern Adirondacks likely fall into the upper 30s and could support patchy frost. Median first fall freeze for Hamilton and northern Herkimer County is Sept 21.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Pleasant and mostly sunny skies continue into Monday as our 1028 hPa surface high becomes centered over northern New England and our amplified ridge axis moves overhead. In fact, height anomalies range 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal according to the NAEFS and GEFS. Sfc winds shift to the southeast in response to the sfc high's position and allow a fetch off the Atlantic to ensue. Despite a marine influence, temperatures should still end up being a few degrees milder than Sunday with highs rising into the mid 70s for most valley areas with upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

Southeast flow continues Monday night which should result in stratus clouds advecting inland. The increased cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from cooling off as seen in previous night with lows only in the low to mid 50s.

Upper level ridging amplifies further on Tuesday and even closes off as it gradually shifts into the western Atlantic. This is in response to a pronounced trough upstream in the Central CONUS that deterministic guidance is in good agreement digs towards the Gulf Coast States. More on this trough and potential influence for the Northeast in the long term discussion. Surface high strengthens further over the Canadian Maritimes to 1030hPa+ which will maintain the southeast fetch and likely cool temperatures down a bit relative to Monday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s for the hill towns and higher terrain with low 70s in the valley.

Stratus deck likely return Tuesday night as southeast flow continues which will once again keep overnight lows on the mild side with lows only in the upper 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Long term period will feature a highly amplified flow pattern with above normal uncertainty in the forecast. After a mainly dry day Wednesday, chances for rain increase Thursday and possibly into Friday with a cold frontal passage. Behind this cold front, much cooler weather is expected for next weekend, but we may have a few showers to deal with More details below.

Long term period begins Wednesday with an upper-level ridge to our east and a digging trough well to our west. At the surface, a 1024 mb high looks to be centered just off the coast of Nova Scotia. This will result in southeasterly flow into our region through the day Wednesday. This southeasterly maritime flow is expected to result in low-level moisture advection into the region, which should skies mostly cloudy through the day. Furthermore, warm air advection at 850 mb ahead of our next weather system may help strengthen an inversion that could aid in trapping low-level moisture near the surface. Therefore, went a degree or two cooler than NBM guidance for high temperatures Wednesday (mainly mid 60s to low 70s). Regarding chances for precipitation Wednesday, the GFS has trended towards the Euro, which paints a relatively rain-free picture for most of Wednesday, except for far western areas where a few showers are possible.

The main story of the long term will be the highly amplified trough that will slowly move towards our region during the middle of the week. As this trough approaches, it is expected to become negatively tilted over the Ohio River Valley and eventually cut off over Kentucky Wednesday evening and then slowly drift to the N/NE and eventually become picked up by another trough diving south out of Canada towards the end of the week. There are some notable discrepancies between guidance regarding how quickly this feature-- and an associated surface cold front--move into our region. The GFS is the most progressive, with the frontal passage Wednesday night and Thursday. The Euro is about 24 hours slower, with the frontal passage occurring Thursday evening into Friday. With guidance trending slower over the past 24 hours, current forecast favors the Euro solution, as it has support from the CMC. Additionally, GFS has a known medium-range progressive bias, and pattern recognition suggests that a slower trend is favored with such a highly amplified pattern. Regardless of the timing of the frontal passage, there will be substantial synoptic-scale forcing for ascent with this system due to cyclonic vorticity advection, and the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak. Furthermore, there looks to be plenty of moisture with deep southerly flow that may allow PWATS to approach 1.75", which is 2-3 sigma above normal for this time of year. In terms of sensible weather, this means that regardless of the timing, we could see a period of active weather as the front passes through our region.

Ahead of this front, we can expect continued southeasterly flow around the periphery of the aforementioned surface high, which appears to be the case through Wednesday night. This should result in abundant cloud cover, which will keep low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Western areas may see a few more showers towards dawn as well.

Thursday, low-level flow looks to become more southerly as the surface high moves further to the east and the cold front approaches from the west. This will allow for warm air advection that should help temperatures climb into the upper 60s and low 70s once again despite continued mostly cloudy skies. By Thursday afternoon, cold front looks to move closer to the region bringing increased chances for rain. Given strong forcing for ascent and deep moisture, some heavy rain will be possible. Will also mention slight chances for thunder at this time. Thursday night into Friday, Euro suggests this front finally moves through our region with continued chance for rain and isolated thunderstorms. Overnight lows may end up warmer than currently forecast, especially if slower trend with the frontal passage continues.

Friday, cold front should finally move through our region and off to the east. Behind the cold front, we can expect drier conditions with cooler and drier air being advected into the region. Highs Friday may remain in the 50s (Adirondacks) to upper 60s (Mid Hudson Valley) with overnight lows dropping into the 40s and 50s. However, as we head into the weekend, guidance is in fairly good agreement that we will remain downstream of large-scale uper-level troughing. As this upper trough moves eastward later Saturday, a few more showers will be possible in advance of a reinforcing shot of cooler, fall-like air. Given uncertainty in the first half of the forecast, went mostly with NBM guidance for next weekend (chance PoPs and highs mainly in the 60s) , as this part of the forecast will be dependent on the flow evolution following the mid-week frontal passage, so details will be ironed out over the coming days.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mostly clear skies with VFR conditions have persisted over the past few hours, except at GFL where there has been fog an mist most of last night. This morning, fog/mist should burn off within the next couple hours at GFL. All TAF sites should see mainly clear skies with VFR conditions through at least this evening.

Tonight, high pressure will be in control so conditions should be favorable for the development of radiation fog. Have therefore included reduced visibilities and hinted at fog in the TAFs for all sites, mainly after 1-2 AM EDT. Will leave it up to future shifts to refine the details, but confidence is high enough to at least mention now as a heads up.

Winds this morning are mainly light to calm, but will increase to around 5-10 kts today from the north, except at GFL where winds may be more northeasterly. Winds become light and variable after sunset tonight and will become calm after midnight.

Outlook .

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact Breezy. Likely SHRA. TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunny and seasonably cool temperatures today as high pressure takes control of the Northeast. Chilly temperatures follow tonight before we warm up slightly tomorrow as mostly sunny skies persist. Dry weather continues through at least Tuesday before a system late in the wake could bring our next chance for showers.

Much drier air mass in place today will result in low RH values this afternoon dropping to 40-50 percent. Clear skies and calm winds tonight favor nearly ideal radiational cooling and RH values should rise to 85 to 95 percent, favoring some dew formation. RH values should then fall to 45-55 percent Sunday afternoon.

Winds will become oriented out of the north to northeast today at 5-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20mph, especially in north to south oriented valleys. Winds turn calm tonight before returning to the southeast on Monday ranging 5 to 8mph.

HYDROLOGY. Dry conditions persist through at least Tuesday. Chances for precipitation increase mid to late week as our next disturbance heads eastward.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Speciale NEAR TERM . KL/Speciale SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . Main AVIATION . Main FIRE WEATHER . Speciale HYDROLOGY . Speciale


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 6 mi87 min N 1.9 64°F 1023 hPa55°F
TKPN6 7 mi57 min N 11 G 17 66°F 73°F1023.2 hPa (+1.5)54°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 8 mi87 min Calm 62°F 1022 hPa54°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi57 min N 8.9 G 13 69°F 75°F1020.7 hPa (+1.8)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 70 mi42 min NE 9.7 G 16 70°F 51°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi64 minN 910.00 miFair66°F54°F65%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW83NW6N33CalmNW3N3CalmCalmN4N9N8N7N3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N9
1 day agoE4E4E7E5SE4SE3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoN7N5N54CalmN6NE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3E6NE5CalmCalmNE3SE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:11 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.54.13.22.31.30.5-0.10.11233.84.143.32.51.60.80.20.212.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.83.32.51.70.90.2-0.10.31.22.12.93.43.63.32.61.91.20.50.10.41.22.13

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