Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:28PM Friday July 19, 2019 6:06 AM EDT (10:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 309 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late this morning, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 309 Am Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through the waters today bringing a return to hot conditions. High pressure remains dominant over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front then passes through the waters Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure slowly building from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 190819
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
419 am edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north of our region today. This will
lead to dangerous heat and oppressive humidity this weekend,
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
will drop through the region on Sunday night into Monday, with a
return to seasonable temperatures and lower humidity to start
the new work week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Heat advisory in effect from noon Friday to noon Saturday
with an excessive heat warning in effect from noon to 8 pm
Saturday for the mohawk and hudson river valleys, southern
taconics, and litchfield county in NW ct...

clouds across the region supported by southerly flow and trapped
moisture at 925 hpa but southwest to west flow above 925 hpa
will mix to the surface around or just after daybreak, that will
erode the cloud layer. By midday, most areas should see lots of
sun and surface winds turn to southwest which is some downslope
in some areas.

The convective complex currently in the western great lakes is
somewhat resolved in sources of guidance and the convective
footprint could track toward the schoharie valley and eastern
catskills by late this afternoon with new thunderstorm
development. Including isolated thunderstorms late this
afternoon in those areas.

The Sun and the west to southwest low level flow should help
temperatures get solidly into the 90s with some 80s in higher
terrain. Heat index values could get up to around 100 in the
hudson and mohawk valleys to NW ct. Heat index values could also
get to near 100 near the vt nh border in the ct river valley,
where eastern windham county was added to the heat advisory
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday
Heat advisory in effect from noon Friday to noon Saturday with
an excessive heat warning in effect from noon to 8 pm Saturday
for the mohawk and hudson river valleys, southern taconics, and
litchfield county in NW ct...

heat advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area from
noon to 8 pm Saturday...

the coverage of thunderstorms that develop in central ny and
near the eastern catskills is in question and even the cams show
considerable differences in opinion on coverage and timing.

Including isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the schoharie
valley to eastern catskills and mid hudson valley where the
guidance and cams show the best consensus. Included heavy rain
and gusty winds wording as there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms.

Instability will be quite considerable this afternoon and
evening and a small low level jet core near the leading edge of
the deeper moisture could support a more organized convective
complex than guidance suggests but it is too early to tell until
daytime data and trends can be analyzed. If there is a larger
and more organized thunderstorm complex, then more of a threat
for damaging winds and potential power outages, power outages
that prevent the use of air conditioning. This is just something
to keep and eye on. Lows tonight in the 70s.

Saturday, the core of the heat will be over our region and lots
of Sun with continued west to southwest flow will help
temperatures reach the mid to upper 90s. Dew points will reach
the mid 70s and heat indices perhaps getting around 110 in some
areas. There are hints in sources of guidance for another little
low level jet core to track near the ny canadian border through
northern new england later Saturday afternoon and night with
another chance for scattered thunderstorms, mainly in northern
areas. However, with the extreme instability in our entire
region, some lake breeze or local terrain convergence could
trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms in other areas. Will
have to watch for some sort of organized complex again but lots
of uncertainty due again, to nebulous weak low level
convergence. Whatever storms do form end Saturday night. Lows
Saturday night in the mid to upper 70s with around 70 to lower
70s in higher terrain.

By Sunday, sources of guidance ensembles show increasing
differences in the timing of upper energy beginning its building
south out of canada and the associated cold front. Boundary
layer flow is expected to be more west to west northwest,
suggesting considerable Sun and another hot day with highs well
into the 90s again. There could be a prefrontal trough Sunday
afternoon with better low level convergence to support scattered
thunderstorms over much of the region. Then the first phase of
the cold front will drop just south of our region Sunday
evening. More heat headlines will likely be needed Sunday,
especially in parts of the hudson valley and NW ct.

Thunderstorms could be strong again with the extreme instability
ahead of the upper energy and cold front.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
The period starts out on Sunday night with a cold front positioned
just south of our region, with a potential secondary front just
upstream of the area. Most sources of guidance indicating this
secondary boundary slowing down as it pushes southeast on Monday,
with a wave of low pressure forecast to develop along the front. Due
to this slowing trend, have extended mention of chance pops through
the daylight hours Monday for the entire area, and into Monday night
from around albany south and east. There is low confidence in the
forecast for this time frame, as we are not seeing any real
consistency in the model guidance yet. There is good agreement that
temperatures will cool down by Monday, especially with
clouds showers around. Highs only expected to reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s in valley locations. Will mention chance thunder from
around i-90 southward, but it is uncertain how much if any sunshine
will occur which would limit instability.

By Tuesday, the frontal system should be south and east of our
region with mainly dry conditions expected. There could still be a
stray shower south and east of albany, but coverage looks sparse.

Humidity levels will be noticeably lower as dewpoints are forecast
to drop into the 50s. Temperatures should also be slightly below
normal, as a broad trough settles in across the great lakes and
northeast.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible Wednesday into
Thursday for parts of the area, as the upper level trough axis
approaches from the west. However, moisture instability will be
lacking so much of the region will remain dry with seasonable
temperatures and dewpoints mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Widespread low stratus clouds have enveloped the region with a
humid air mass in place, and will remain through the rest of
the night into this morning. Cig heights have been in MVFR
range so far, although some lowering is expected overnight,
with potential for ifr CIGS at kpsf kpou. Highest confidence in
ifr CIGS at kpsf, with lower confidence at kpou. CIGS at
kalb kgfl should remain in MVFR range.

The lower stratus clouds will gradually dissipate during the
morning, with improvement toVFR expected by late morning. There
is a potential for scattered thunderstorms during the late
afternoon to early evening time frame at the terminals. There is
low confidence in placement and exact timing, but enough to
mention prob30 for tsra at all sites. Brief ifr MVFR conditions
could occur within any tsra.

Winds will initially be light and variable, becoming southwest
around 10 kt, with occasional gusts near 20 kt this afternoon.

Locally stronger wind gusts will be possible in and near any
tsra.

Outlook...

Saturday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A warm front will lift north of our region today. This will
lead to dangerous heat and oppressive humidity this weekend,
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
will drop through the region on Sunday night into Monday, with a
return to seasonable temperatures and lower humidity to start
the new work week.

Rh values this afternoon and Saturday afternoon will be 50
percent or more while nighttime rh values will be 80 to 100
percent.

Winds will be south to southwest today at 5 to 15 mph, near calm
tonight and southwest at 5 to 15 mph again Saturday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Hydrology
Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon evening showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the upcoming weekend,
with the most widespread coverage expected Sunday afternoon into
Monday as a cold front crosses the region.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Climate
Record highs
july 19th...

albany: 97 degrees 1904
glens falls: 95 degrees 1977
poughkeepsie: 102 degrees 1991
july 20th...

albany: 97 degrees 1991
glens falls: 97 degrees 1946
poughkeepsie: 102 degrees 1991
july 21st...

albany: 101 degrees 1930
glens falls: 96 degrees 2011
poughkeepsie: 101 degrees 1977

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for
ctz001-013.

Heat advisory from noon today to noon edt Saturday for ctz001-
013.

Ny... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for nyz032-033-
042-047-051-054-058-061-063-082.

Excessive heat warning from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for
nyz038>041-048>050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.

Heat advisory from noon today to noon edt Saturday for
nyz038>041-048>050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.

Heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt Saturday for nyz043.

Ma... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for maz001-025.

Vt... Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for vtz013-014.

Heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt Saturday for vtz015.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Nas
short term... Nas
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas
climate... Aly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 6 mi97 min ESE 2.9 71°F 1013 hPa67°F
TKPN6 7 mi55 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 71°F 80°F1012.2 hPa69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi55 min N 1.9 G 2.9
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 70 mi47 min E 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 68°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi74 minN 010.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N5N4N6N6N5N4N4E45E4E3E4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3SW6S7SW7
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SW135S7SW5S3SW4CalmCalmS3SE4SE3CalmE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:23 AM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:09 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.93.43.73.63.22.51.60.90.30.10.31.122.62.93.12.92.41.71.10.70.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.