Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:15PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 353 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight, then becoming W with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Isolated tstms this evening. Rain until early morning, then chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Rapidly deepening low pressure lifts north across the area this evening and then tracks more slowly across new england late tonight through Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over the region Friday, remaining through the weekend. Another frontal system affects the area Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 162109
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
509 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Powerful nor'easter will impact the region tonight through
Thursday with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. As this
storm tracks across new england, winds and rainfall will slowly
diminish Thursday night with improving weather conditions on
Friday. The start of the weekend looks tranquil and seasonable
as high pressure transverses the region.

Near term through Thursday
As of 330 am edt... A powerful nor-easter is on the way for the
region. Isallobaric falls over the DELMARVA was over six
millibars in the past 3 hours and falling rapidly. Impressive
satellite imagery with improving diffluence aloft and cooling
cloud tops should prove with explosive cyclogensis the next
12-hrs. Expanding area of rainfall will overspread the entire
region through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Ncep
model suite all suggest a mesoscale band within the deformation
axis will set up somewhere across the region with latest trends
across the hudson river valley and points eastward.

Furthermore, ensemble guidance points toward anomalies of up to
6 standard deviations above normal with respect to low level
wind magnitudes for western new england counties. Now as this
storm and deformation axis slide across the region, cross
sections reveal a rather abrupt wind shift later this evening.

This is where the heavy rainfall band will pivot and track east-
northeast overnight as wrap around moisture and upslope will
further add to the rainfall, mainly across the higher terrain.

Given the heavy rainfall potential, we will hoist a flood watch
for the entire region. Onto the wind potential, increasing
pressure gradient and wind magnitudes in the lower levels will
result in occasional gusts close to wind advisory criteria.

Initially, portions of the taconics, NW ct, berks and southern
vt will be susceptible as the storm tracks northward, then on
the backside overnight into Thursday for the remainder of the
region. Given the rainfall amount forecasts, wet grounds and
increasing winds with still plenty of leafs could pose an impact
hazard with fallen trees and limbs with isolated power outages.

Overnight lows mainly into the 40s and highs Thursday likely
not changing to much with lower half of the 50s for the
immediate capital region and through the mid hudson valley and
40s elsewhere. Wet bulb processes within the cold advection
across the dacks may bring about some wet snow for elevations
near 2k feet with little in the way of accumulation expected.

Short term Thursday night through Friday
Thursday night... As a vertically stacked filled system across
northern new england is forecast, wind magnitudes will decrease
Thursday night but still remain blustery. Froude numbers suggest
the flow will remain critical with values near one so the
combination of upslope conditions and a few valley showers will
remain in the forecast. As boundary layer temperatures and wet
bulb zero heights drop, some coatings of snow with up to an inch
at the highest peaks of the eastern catskills, southern
adirondacks and southern green mountains are possible. Lows will
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with wind chill values into the
30s.

Friday... The showery pcpn will end in the morning, as the mid
and upper level low moves northeast in the canadian maritimes.

High pressure will be building in from the lower great lakes
region and oh valley. The skies will become partly sunny, and
the winds will diminish further. Temps will be seasonable with
50s in the valleys, and 40s over the higher terrain.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Main headline for long term period is our next potential widespread
soaking rain event Monday night into Tuesday night. Otherwise,
temperatures should be averaging near to slightly above average
as southerly winds become the main flow regime.

The upcoming weekend will be quite pleasant as a strengthening high
should move in quickly behind the departing nor'easter. Winds
finally calm down Friday night as our pressure gradient shifts
into new england. After a chilly start to Saturday with morning
low temperatures likely falling well into the 30s throughout
eastern ny and western new england, we should see a very
pleasant Saturday as our upper level ridge axis moves overhead.

Temperatures should be seasonable in the mid-upper 50s under
abundant sun. Sunday our ridge axis shift to our east with
southwesterly flow strengthening a bit ahead of a moisture
starved cold front which should allow temperatures to warm-up
into the 60s. The front should pass through dry but we increased
clouds Sunday afternoon into night.

A system with tropical origins (currently in central america according
to the national hurricane center, should weaken as the
aforementioned weak cold front steers it towards the mid-
atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. However, with a
1025-1030hpa high quickly settling in over northern new england,
it seems like this system should remain to our south and we
continued with a dry forecast for now. However, there are enough
discrepancies among the latest guidance that this will be
monitoring over the coming days.

Upstream, another deep trough will be intensifying from the
rockies into the great plains allowing ridging over the
northeast to strengthen on Monday. The intensifying trough looks
to cut off and become vertically stacked by Monday night with
southeast winds strengthening over the northeast. A warm front
looks to move through our region Monday night with warm
air moisture advection strengthening through Tuesday. In fact,
850mb wind anomalies and moisture flux, as per the gefs, look
to be 2-3 std above normal as 850mb winds look to strength to
40-50kts. Should the aforementioned system with tropical origins
still be off shore, some of its moisture could be advected into
the northeast under the strong southerly flow regime. Still
some uncertainties on exact timing but given run-to-run
consistences with this event, we continued to place chance and
likely pops throughout eastern ny western new england from
Monday night through Tuesday night. Given the strong moisture
flux out of the gulf of mexico combined with additional forcing
for ascent provided by the deep trough becoming negatively
tilted, our confidence is increasing that this could be another
widespread soaking rain event. Otherwise, temperature Monday
through Wednesday should be near normal with highs ranging from
the mid- 50s to low 60s and overnight lows staying rather mild
in the 40s to even near 50 due to cloud coverage.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
A strong storm system will develop off the mid-atlantic coast
late today, then move north and strengthen further tonight and
Thursday. Rain will overspread the TAF sites from south to north
this afternoon, with CIGS and vsbys lowering rapidly to MVFR
once the rain begins. MVFR CIGS and vsbys will trend downward to
ifr tonight as rain continues, heavy at times. Llws will also
occur tonight with 40 kt easterly winds at about 2000 feet about
the surface. Winds will shift to northwest late tonight and
Thursday morning as the center of low pressure moves north
across new england. Rain will diminish to showers during the day
Thursday, however northwest winds will be strong and gusty,
with gusts to 30 to 35 kts through the day.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of
shra.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night to Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Not much of a concern with rainfall on the way tonight with a
couple or few inches of rain expected.

Hydrology
Flood watch for the entire region.

Latest model guidance and ensembles suggest rainfall totals of 1
to 3 with as high as 4 inches are in the forecast. This will be
highly dependent where the band(s) of rainfall set up and
transverse the region. At this time several of our river points
are expected to rise at or above action stage with hope forecast
to reach flood stage. Latest mmefs and hefs point toward low
probabilities of flood stage being achieved at several points,
however, more of a concern will be blocked storm drains from
fallen leafs and other debris. After coordination with
surrounding offices, nerfc and the national water center, we
decided to hoist the watch.

A period of dry weather will return Friday into the weekend
which should allow flows to slow and lower.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flood watch through Friday morning for ctz001-013.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Flood watch through Friday morning for nyz032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for nyz032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.

Ma... Flood watch through Friday morning for maz001-025.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for maz001-025.

Vt... Flood watch through Friday morning for vtz013>015.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt Thursday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm
short term... Bgm
long term... Speciale
aviation... Mse jpv
fire weather... Bgm wasula
hydrology... Bgm wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 6 mi85 min SE 4.1 62°F 1006 hPa53°F
TKPN6 7 mi61 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 57°F 61°F1004.2 hPa54°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 8 mi85 min Calm 56°F 1004 hPa55°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi61 min E 12 G 15 63°F 63°F1002.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 70 mi70 min E 16 G 21 63°F 2 ft59°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi62 minENE 52.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F55°F93%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S35SE10SE8SE13
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1 day agoW10W7W9NW5N6N7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmNE4N3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW9SW10SW7--SW9SW10SW7W4

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:07 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:07 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.63.13.33.22.82.11.30.60.30.20.81.82.83.43.63.53.22.61.710.50.30.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.