Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingston, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Key Message:

- Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating snow this evening through tonight. NBM probabilities for seeing 1" or snow or greater are highest (60-100%) for the western and central Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley.

Discussion:

As of 100 AM, high pressure was centered across the Southeast, with a cold front to our north and west across Ontario and eastern Great Lakes. Light snow showers were occurring along and ahead of the front, though coverage was rather sparse as moisture was lacking with the front. Temperatures as of this writing were in the 20s to low 30s

Through daytime today, the cold front will continue to move south across the region, and is progged to reach southern New England and northern Pennsylvania by mid-morning. This will allow for an influx of colder air and morning lows to drop into the single digits to low 20s. Dry conditions are also expected, with areas across the Mid Hudson Valley also seeing breaks of sunshine.

Clouds will fill back in through the morning into early afternoon with the arrival of a weak clipper system from the west late this afternoon into early tonight. As advertised in the previous AFD, this system is weak in nature w.r.t. forcing with a track favored mainly across the North Country and Lake Ontario. This will result in the best forcing and moisture being displaced north of the area, limiting total QPF for eastern New York and western New England.
Latest NBM remains on track for snow accumulations of around 1-3 inches mainly for high elevation locations in the western/southern ADKs and southern Greens, with lesser amounts across the Mohawk Valley and Lake George-Saratoga regions. Outside of here, little to no accumulation of snow is expected. While some locally slippery spots are possible over the ADKs, most areas won't be seeing any impacts.

Colder air will return for Monday as high pressure quickly moves across the region. It will be blustery as well with northwest winds initially gusting around 20-30 MPH before subsiding for the afternoon and evening. Despite the sunshine, highs will struggle to climb into the teens to mid 20s (potentially colder at higher elevations), with overnight lows falling near to below zero.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the high will quickly depart to our east with weak southerly flow behind it, though temperatures will remain chilly with highs only in the 20s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of another clipper system taking aim at the region, which looks to mainly impact the region Tuesday night. Similar to the last system, a track more north of the region will limit total QPF for us as favorable lift and moisture will be displaced more into Canada and the North Country. A few inches of snow will be possible once again mainly across the western/central ADKs and Mohawk Valley, with little to now accumulation elsewhere.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Message:

- Several chances of rain/snow in the long term as an active flow regime remains near the region

Discussion: Strong polar jet stream will remain near to just south of the region through the duration of the long term period, with several shortwaves/troughs progged to track along it. This will keep the region under the gun for several chances of precipitation from mid- week into next weekend.

On the heels of our Tuesday clipper, another clipper will arrive across the region Wednesday. This one looks to be stronger with a positively tilted shortwave and surface low, which is favored by majority of guidance to track near to just north of the region.
Forecast soundings suggest more available moisture with this clipper and more robust forcing, which will result in higher chances (currently 50-90%) of precipitation for eastern New York and western New England. Little change with regard to the system evolution has been noted with this forecast update, with all locations seeing snow initially before a transition to rain/snow and all rain occurs Wednesday morning and afternoon. NBM continues to advertise a low to medium probability (40-50%) of at least a coating of snow areawide before the transition to rain in valley locations, with low to medium probability of amounts greater than 1" (40-60%) mainly in higher terrain locations.

We will quiet down briefly to close out the work week, though some low chance POPs remain in the forecast (10-30%) as several weak shortwaves track across the region in northwest flow. It will be cooler as well with daytime highs and lows favored to remain below normal. There is potential for another system to impact the region late Thursday and Friday, but models remain quite variable on the track and strength of it, resulting in low confidence in evolution at this time.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 12Z Monday...High pressure builds in this morning with mainly VFR conditions with cigs bkn-ovc 3.5-5 kft AGL KALB-KPSF northward to KGFL. High MVFR clouds may be briefly near KPSF.
Some scattered clouds are near KPOU. The flight conditions should be VFR most of the morning into the early-mid afternoon.
The next clipper and cold front approach the TAF sites in the late afternoon/early evening with cloud bases lowering to low VFR/MVFR KALB-KPSF northward with some PROB30 groups with snow showers with MVFR/spotty IFR vsbys KALB-KPSF northward 20Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon. The snow showers should diminish shortly after 00Z/Mon at KALB/KPSF but may linger until 04Z/Mon for KGFL with IFR/MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will improve to VFR between 02Z-06Z/Mon at the TAF with the winds increasing in the wake of the front.

The winds will increase from the southeast to south at 4-8 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will shift to west/southwest in the early evening at 8-12 KT with some gusts 15-20 KT. The winds will further veer to the northwest 03Z-06Z/Mon at 10-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT especially at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of RA
SN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.