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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 139 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 139 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. The area will reside under weak high pressure today between frontal systems located to the north and south. Developing low pressure over the mid mississippi valley tonight heads up into the great lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east of the area Sunday night into Monday dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the middle atlantic coast Wednesday.

FXUS61 KALY 021808 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 108 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Ample cloud cover today as a weak front slowly track across the region. A potent disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to the area beginning early Sunday morning through early Monday. Rain continues to look like the predominant precipitation type, but elevations above 1500 feet will get some wet snow with greater accumulations at higher elevations.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Updated PoPs and weather to better reflect current conditions as we have light rain and fog across the area. Light rain/drizzle is occurring as we have a weak boundary moving gradually southward across the region while aloft a short wave is moving through.
It's a damp and chilly day across much of the area. Some improvement is expected this afternoon however cloudy conditions are expected to persist; 12Z ALY sounding shows saturated conditions below 700 mb with a couple of inversion in place.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [0700 AM EST] temperatures are mild this morning with widespread upper 30s to low 40s across the area.
The Southwest Adirondacks and higher peaks of the Eastern Catskills are a bit cooler, however with lower 30s. Current METARs indicate misty conditions across the area thanks to sustained elevated low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion. KENX radar is mainly clear aside from a few very light showers entering the Schoharie Valley and extreme northern Herkimer County. Reflectivity is weak enough, however to indicate that this might be virga.

Minimal changes were made with this update. The forecast remains in good shape. For details on today's forecast, see previous discussion below...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [0419 AM EST]...Rain has greatly decreased across the region as of this morning's update with only a few light, scattered showers still lingering about in the Western Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson Valley. MSLP Analysis shows an area of lower pressure currently situated in the northern Ohio Valley just south of the Michigan border with a quasi-stationary boundary draped southwest to northeast through western New York. Latest CAMs indicate scattered showers lingering through this afternoon as this boundary continues to pull moisture off Lakes Erie and Ontario before slowly tracking through the region from northwest to southeast by tonight. Precipitation will remain in the form of rain as thermal profiles indicate sufficient warm air in the low-levels to mitigate snow reaching the surface. However, at higher peaks of the Southwest Adirondacks where the boundary layer is a bit cooler, a few wet snowflakes are possible.

Clouds will remain prevalent throughout the day today as low- level moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion.
High temperatures will remain on the mild side with low to upper 40s expected in most areas. The exception to this will be portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and isolated pockets of the southern Greens where temperatures will only grace the upper 30s as well as portions of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley where temperatures could reach the low 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
By Saturday night, showers will have tapered off, yielding dry conditions for a brief time. Skies will continue to be painted with plenty of clouds as low-level moisture remains elevated, trapped below the inversion and continually reinforced with another storm system on the approach. Some light freezing drizzle is possible this evening ahead of this next system, but coverage will be extremely limited to the higher peaks of the Western Adirondacks. Impacts will remain confined to untreated, elevated roadways thanks to warm antecedent surface conditions.
Low temperatures Saturday night will therefore continue the mild trend with widespread 30s and pockets of low 40s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley expected.

A brief period of tranquility Saturday night will give way to another agitated pattern for the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. By Saturday night, a broad, large-scale trough centered over central CONUS will begin to fill toward the northeast.
As it progresses, two surface low pressure cyclones will form, one headed toward the eastern Great Lakes/western New York (primary)
and the other to the Mid-Atlantic Coast (secondary). PVA along the leading edge of the trough as well as upper level divergence in the left exit region of a 250mb jet streak will provide plenty of forcing for ascent. Deep- layer moisture provided by southwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels as well as southerly/southeasterly flow at the surface beneath the strengthening inversion in will provide the fuel to the forcing to ensure widespread precipitation early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. However, some uncertainties still exist pertaining to the track of the two surface cyclones as well as to the type of and amount of precipitation to be expected.

The primary low looks to follow a northeasterly track through the Ohio Valley and become situated in the eastern Great Lakes/western New York area by Sunday evening. However, the challenge that remains with this forecast is the evolution of the secondary or coastal low. Models have consistently had trouble depicting its track and position in reference to the forecast area. Where models seem to agree in the development of the coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast, they struggle to come to a consensus on where exactly it will track once it reaches the Atlantic. Some portray a more northerly track that will allow it to near the Long Island Coast (NAM, HRRR, ECMWF), while others show it taking a hard cut east further out into the Atlantic (GFS, CMCNH). The discrepancies in this aspect of the forecast primarily affect the precipitation rates throughout the Hudson Valley, Catskills, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires as a closer pull north would allow longer duration moderate rain in these areas due to the adjacent frontogenetical forcing from the quasi-stationary/warm frontal boundary attached to the low.
Since there seems to be more of a favor towards this solution, indicated periods of moderate rain in these areas in the forecast especially from mid-morning Sunday to the afternoon when the low would be nearing.

The other challenge with this forecast has been precipitation type. Thanks to ample warm air advection on the warm side of the storm and an early- season mild boundary layer, the main precipitation type from this event looks to be rain. Some very light and localized freezing drizzle could occur in the Western Adirondacks and Lake George area at event onset Sunday with forecast soundings showing profiles with a narrow layer of cooler air near the surface undercutting the warm nose, but impacts will be slim to none. However, as Sunday transitions to Monday, some wet snow could mix in mainly in the Western Adirondacks, Lake George Region and Southern Green mountains.As the coastal low pushes further east into the Atlantic and the primary low begins to move overhead, cool air will begin to be wrapped around it as winds turn out our of the east/northeast.
The injection of cold air will allow temperatures to drop and the warm nose to erode a bit. Forecast soundings in the aforementioned areas indicate not only a more snow-like profile, but some modest omega within the DGZ. So, some snow accumulations are very possible. However, because of how wet the environment will be, it is possible that the effects of wet- bulbing will be fairly limited which would lead to minimal accumulations. On the other hand, a stall of the low overhead could allow for additional cool air to be filtered in from the Canadian High overhead, allowing for slightly heavier accumulations. Snowfall accumulations are, therefore, heavily dependent on timing and evolution of this system. For now, maintained maximum of about 2" - 4" with isolated pockets of 4" - 6" of wet snow accumulations. As we get closer to the event, Winter Weather Advisories may be necessary, but enough spread in the guidance exists to warrant the decision to hold off at this time.

Some light rain and snow, or a mix thereof, showers will linger throughout the day Monday as the primary low remains dominant overhead, but additional accumulations will be light to nothing at all. Clouds will stick around, however, as a result of the persistent influence of the low. Low temperatures Saturday night will range from the low 30s to low 40s across the area.
Highs Sunday will then span the low to upper 40s with low to upper 30s above 1500ft. Sunday night lows will be similar to Saturday, only a few degrees cooler at widespread 30s with pockets of near 40. Highs Monday will likewise be similar to Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper level shortwave will be quickly passing by to the south on Monday night. Meanwhile, the remains of the surface storm system that will be impacting the region on Sun-Mon will be departing off to the northeast, as the primary low falls apart and the secondary low continues to rapidly pass by Atlantic Canada. A few lingering upslope or cyclonic flow snow showers (aided by some lake moisture)
are possible for Monday evening for western areas, but most of this will be shutting off at the best forcing shifts away. Some clearing will be occurring overnight with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Some weak upper level shortwave ridging may allow for quiet weather on Tuesday before another northern stream shortwave passes by to the south on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be fairly moisture starved, but may be able to pick up some moisture off the eastern Great Lakes for a few passing snow showers or flurries, mainly for western areas. Any snow amounts look very light (if at all), as the northwesterly upper level flow won't be favorable for our area.
Temps look near or slightly below normal, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s.

Mainly quiet weather is expected Thursday before another upper level disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes for Friday. Again, this feature won't have a lot of moisture with it, but this one may be passing over or just north of the area. Some warm advection ahead of it could allow for a brief period of light snow (perhaps mixed with rain in valleys) for Thursday night into Friday, but won't go with POPs higher than slight to low chc at this time. Temps will continue to be mainly 20s at night with 30s during the day for Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18z Sunday....Main weather concerns to operations for the ALY terminals include:

* Persistent MVFR to LIFR conditions over the next 24 hours due to low ceilings and mist/fog

* Another round of rain showers developing on Sunday

As of this update, the ALY aerodromes were ranging between IFR and LIFR with ceilings between 200-500 feet AGL and visibilities between 2-7 statute miles. The forecast area will remain socked in MVFR to LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities due to low clouds and mist/fog over the next 24 hours as a strong surface inversion keeping low level moisture trapped underneath it remains in place. Flying conditions could improve slightly over the next few hours into MVFR territory based off trends in central New York. Though most of the evening/night will remain rain-free, there could be instances of drizzle or VCSH over the terminals this afternoon into tonight as the first shortwave continues to pull out of the area.

A second slightly stronger disturbance will emerge out of the Southeast U.S. and phase/merge with a secondary shortwave over the Great Lakes Region. These features will bring another round of widespread precipitation to the region on Sunday. Have PROB30s between 08z-13z for the TAF sites. Greater confidence that rain showers will move into the TAF sites between 12z-15z. Low clouds, mist, and/or fog will remain in place on Sunday due to the aforementioned inversion.

Winds will by and large remain light and variable to calm through the 18z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Kingston Point
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Sat -- 04:59 AM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:43 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:56 PM EST     3.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:44 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
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Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Hyde Park
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Sat -- 04:39 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:21 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:36 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:22 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
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Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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