Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timberlake, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
The main weather message...
-Light snow accumulations up to 1 inch are possible today, primarily north of Highway 30.
-Minor travel impacts maybe possible today into this evening.
-A few lake-enhanced snow showers may linger this evening across the Snowbelt.

A weak clipper system is currently over the Cornbelt of the Midwest and tracking in our direction for later today. While it may appear a little more ominous on the regional radars this morning, this system will slowly weaken as it tracks over our area today. Ahead of the approaching system, there is a light southerly flow this morning. There is also a shallow layer of moisture below 850 mb this morning. This shallow moisture layer is associated with low stratus deck over the region and some patchy fog over central and western Ohio this morning. There is limited potential for some patchy light freezing drizzle or mist this morning before the light snow arrives. But do to low confidence, we have left it out of the forecast at this time.

Upper level support and moisture with this clipper coming through today will be limited. Forecast model guidance is showing possibly up to a tenth of an inch of QPF over our area today. Given that this system will move through during the day with temperatures near or just slightly below freezing, a dusting to around 1 inch of snowfall may be possible. The better chance for light accumulations will be primarily north of Highway 30 today.

As this weak low pressure system moves through the eastern Great Lakes late today, it will push a cold front through as well.
Winds will become northwesterly 10 to 15 mph by this evening.
A push of colder air will also follow behind the cold frontal passage this evening with 850 mb falling down to around -14C.
There may be a few lake enhanced snow showers lingering around into this evening for the Snowbelt region. Another 1 inch of light snowfall may be possible for the primary Snowbelt through this evening. High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 30s today before the cold front arrives.

High pressure will build over the region late tonight into Monday. Overnight low temperatures will drop back down into the teens with a few single digits possible where skies clear out.
Monday will be a quiet weather day with a mix of clouds and peaks of sun. It will be cold Monday with high temperatures only in the middle to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will exit the region towards the New England coast on Tuesday. Another fast moving clipper and low pressure system will track through the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. There will be an increase in cloud cover and gusty southerly to southwesterly winds on Tuesday. Southwest winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Another round of light precip will arrive with the Tuesday clipper system, starting as light snow but mixing with or changing to light rain later in the day as milder air pushes in from the southwest. The better chance for precip on Tuesday will be further north near the lakeshore and areas of NEOH and NWPA. Some minor light snowfall up to 1 inch may be possible on Tuesday before the precip changes over to rain by Tuesday evening and night. High temperatures Tuesday will climb above freezing into the middle and upper 30s.

The parade of clipper systems continues for Wednesday with a stronger low pressure system that track through the Great Lakes region. We will be on the milder side initially for the Wednesday clipper. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue on Wednesday 15 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph. Rain showers will be likely on Wednesday with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day. Another cold front will move late Wednesday with another shot of colder air. Rain will change back to light snow showers Wednesday evening. Colder air aloft will spill over Lake Erie with a flare up lake enhanced and or lake effect snow showers Wednesday night for the Snowbelt. Some minor accumulations will be possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The long range model guidance show a very unsettled, wintry and cold weather pattern for the end of the week into next weekend.
A large and deep upper level trough will continue it's grip over the Great Lakes region and much of the eastern CONUS. The parade of fast moving clippers and reinforcing shots of cold air will be the main weather theme through next weekend. Another clipper may move through late Thursday through early Friday and another one over the weekend. Light snowfall accumulations will be possible for all of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania associated with the system snow. A deeper cyclonic flow under the upper level trough may develop over the Great Lakes region Friday through next weekend and bring a decent setup of lake effect snow for both the primary and secondary Snowbelt. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
MVFR ceilings continue across the airspace this morning ahead of low pressure and a shield of snow that will spread east later this morning. Snow has already started to reach NW OH and impact KTOL. There is potential for IFR visibility with the initial push of snow; however, the snow shield is weakening as it progresses eastward. Therefore, just have IFR visibility with the snow at KTOL and KFDY, where snow will arrive sooner, and KERI, where there may be some lake enhancement to allow for more intense snow and reduced visibility. Otherwise, the remaining terminals will need to wait for some lower ceilings to develop this afternoon to allow for a period of IFR conditions.

The low pressure system will exit tonight and extend a cold front through the area. Winds will shift to the north and even northeast late in the TAF period. Ceilings will improve with time behind the system up to VFR for most. Lower ceilings will hang on for areas downwind of Lake Erie. Otherwise, low clouds will be scattered and ceilings would be limited to cirrus.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through Thursday.

MARINE
Weak low pressure will move through the region today, eventually passing to New England by tonight. As this system powers through, onshore flow will increase to 15 to 20 kts and allow for waves to build to the 4 to 5 ft range. Therefore, will go with a Small Craft Advisory for tonight into Monday morning. There will be a very brief reprieve in winds on Monday with high pressure entering the region.
Once this feature pushes east on Monday night, strong offshore flow will begin to develop as a low pressure system enters the Great Lakes for Tuesday. This Tuesday system has remained persistent in being a quick-hitting low through the region with a 50 kt low level jet moving over the lake during the daytime hours. This should likely translate to gale force winds at the surface and have southwest winds up to 40 kts. For Wednesday, a stronger low pressure system will enter the region and the stronger surface pressure gradient and a 60 kt low level jet over the lake will allow for gale force winds to continue with the potential for 40 to 45 kt sustained winds on the lake. Waves during this period may reach 15 ft or more with this setup. With the strong southwest flow, low water levels in the western basin of Lake Erie will be a concern and Low Water Advisories will likely be needed. The low and associated cold front will east of the area on Wednesday night and winds will shift to onshore and weaken. Elevated waves should continue into Thursday and marine headlines would persist to at least Thursday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149.