Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timberlake, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Wintry weather continues across the majority of the region as an upper level trough deepens into the Great Lakes and moves eastward over the course of the next few days. A surface low, currently situated across the easter seaboard, will move into eastern Canada on Monday. Behind the low, there has been strong, cold air advection from the north moving across the lakes. This will create a couple periods of lake effect snow impacting the region through late Tuesday. Currently, there are headlines out for much of the CWA to account for this. For the western tier of counties within the Advisory, there will be Lake Huron connection moving into the area early this morning and progressing eastward throughout the day.
Winds will begin to shift today pushing the lake effect band further to the east. Additionally, during the day today, there will be a push of drier air into the region that may limit impacts across much of the region. This won't limit the PoPs, though the QPF will be lower limiting overall accumulations. By late Monday night, there will be more humid air mass moving in as winds shift to be more northwesterly. This will bring a lake effect band across the typical snowbelt areas into Tuesday. The highest amounts will be across far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania through Tuesday morning.

Throughout the day on Tuesday winds will start to shift to be more westerly as a weak ridge builds into the region. This will push the lake effect band further off the lakeshore where impacts will primarily be in northwest Pennsylvania. With this ridge, there will be more low-level dry air moving in that will make the lake effect less effective and limiting totals after Tuesday morning.

In addition to the lake effect snow, with the much colder air mass moving in, temperatures will be the coldest of the season so far.
Morning lows on Monday will be down into the mid 20s and only reaching up into the mid 30s throughout the day. Tuesday morning lows will be even colder with lows down in the low 20s and even upper teens. Wind chills will be down into the low teens across the majority of the region as well as winds will be 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The weak ridge moves through the region Tuesday night and the mean flow will start to shift back to be more west to northwesterly by Wednesday. This will be bring the lake effect band back onshore in northwest Pennsylvania and far northeastern Ohio as well. Though, as a weak low pressure system moves to the north, a slightly warmer air mass will move into the region. This will bring temperatures above freezing by Wednesday morning which will transition the snow band over to rain. There may be a few lingering showers across the primary snowbelt through Wednesday night and the rest of the area is expected to remain dry. Precipitation will start to taper off into Thursday as an upper level ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.
Overnight low temperatures in the short term will be slightly warmer in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs during the day will be in the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will be situated across the region for the majority of the long term with quieter weather and seasonable temperatures expected to end the week. An upper level trough will move into the region to end the weekend and precipitation chances will increase towards the end of the weekend. Temperatures will climb back in the mid 50s for highs and mid to upper 30s for overnight lows.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
The steadiest snow will continue to slowly drift eastward through sunrise. KTOL and KFDY have already seen the bulk of the snow end, and these sites will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR early this morning before becoming mainly VFR during the day today outside of a few passing snow showers. This will take a little longer at KMFD, where light snow will be pretty steady through 12Z or so with prevailing MVFR/IFR before starting to improve, although occasional bursts of snow will continue to drop cigs and vis through early afternoon there. KMFD should finally clear out by late afternoon. For KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI, snow showers will linger much of the day today as the synoptic/lake enhanced snow this morning transitions to pure lake-effect snow showers by late this morning. This will support frequent MVFR/IFR conditions, but there will be improvement in between snow showers, so it won't be solidly low cigs/vis without breaks. Tried to show overall improvement at all of these terminals starting around late afternoon as drier air works in, but confidence is low due to the scattered nature of lake-effect snow bands in a NW flow pattern because it tends to lead to a "spray" of mainly light, nuisance snow showers that linger. Another flare up of lake-effect snow is likely late this evening and tonight as the flow backs to WNW and eventually W, but this should mainly impact KERI while the other sites continue to improve.

Winds will gradually back to NW through this morning, with speeds of 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots at times. Winds will continue to back to WNW by this evening and W tonight, with gradually diminishing speeds, but still gusting to around 20 knots near the lakeshore affecting KERI.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect showers through midweek.

MARINE
The late October and early November trend of high winds on Lake Erie continues with high pressure gradients from strong high/low pressure systems. Winds northwesterly 20-30kts and wave heights 69ft on the central and eastern basins and 3-ft in the western basin. Building high pressure over the deep south will turns the winds southwesterly and increase them to 30-35kts for later Tuesday into Tuesday night, nearing gale criteria. Wave heights increase and peak at 8-12ft over the open waters east of the islands, and 3-6ft in the nearshore zones. Winds on the gradual decrease through Wednesday and Thursday with wave heights coming down as well, and will come down below 2ft Thursday night into Friday with west southwest winds around 10kts. Small Craft Advisory in effect through early Tuesday, when decisions for a possible Gale Watch/Warning may need to be considered for later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ010-019-020-029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ011>014- 089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ021>023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.