Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday January 25, 2020 2:43 AM CST (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202001251015;;473990 Fzus53 Klot 250410 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 1010 Pm Cst Fri Jan 24 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-251015- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 1010 Pm Cst Fri Jan 24 2020
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog. Snow and rain. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 250821 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 221 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

SHORT TERM. 315 PM CST

Through Saturday night .

The forecast expectations for the evolution of the moderate to at times heavy snow tonight into Saturday remain largely unchanged. Despite the close proximity in time to now, there remains fairly large uncertainty on the precise placement of the most sustained snow and thus the highest values which could be pushing to over six inches in isolated locations by Saturday morning. Confidence is highest in the center to western parts of the current Advisory to start the earliest in snow and maintain the longest into Saturday morning with efficient rates. The eastern parts certainly will have Advisory criteria impacts, it's just uncertain how quick they will onset. We expect the poorest conditions to be the most expansive later this evening through overnight and into early-mid Saturday morning. With gradually tapering snowfall rates for the Saturday afternoon time, impacts should ease and possibly quickly, but difficult to say. Only change to Winter Weather Advisory was to back up start time for parts of the central and south metro to 8 p.m.

The latest hand surface analysis places a broad surface low across the southern forecast area and into central Illinois, meandering its way slowly north-northeast. This will soon take better shape over northwest Indiana and into north central Indiana this evening as an upper jet maximum rounds the pesky closed upper low over southern Illinois. With light winds into early evening and low temperature-dew point spreads north of the warm front, visibility in fog will be around a quarter mile in places along/north of I-80. An uptick in rain showers should continue across northwest Indiana into northeast Illinois through late afternoon and that should abate any persistent sub quarter mile visibility, but at least occasionally being down to that level is expected into the commute. The Dense Fog Advisory was expanded/extended northeast across the metro for the commute.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery has a magnificent presentation of the closed upper low as well as the jet streak rounding its eastern side over the Ohio River Valley. This jet maximum will continue to blossom precipitation from northern Indiana into northeast and far northern Illinois into early this evening. This precipitation will be fed by a moist conveyor belt, also clearly evident on satellite imagery into far northern Illinois, as well as a developing trough of warm air aloft (TROWAL) and associated steep lapse rates aloft. With the juxtapose of upper level forcing and a convergent focus in the lower-mid levels across the northern CWA, precipitation should increase in rate fairly quickly. As such, dynamic cooling will support probable changeover to snow not that long after onset. The challenge is precisely where this developing deformation sets up residence. Have felt that the low-level and even mid-level trends being a tad further west than earlier indications point toward the western/central portions of the Advisory area early this evening seeing that rapid onset. The RAP and HRRR have been consistent with this today. For the Chicago area there likely will be some rain/snow mix even shortly after sundown, but low-level wet bulb profiles and being southeast of the deeper convergence point toward less potential of going fully snow early this evening, and thus less evening impacts.

While guidance varies on nitty gritty details such as placement, the snow area's morphology through tonight and even into Saturday morning is pretty well agreed upon. Not surprisingly given the placement with respect to the upper low, it is expected to pivot over part of the area . most likely north central Illinois . and then expand and creep southeastward. This makes conceptual sense in the deformation and also with column winds turning northwesterly. Within this snowfall area, 7.5+ C/km lapse rates above 650 mb and a deeper dendritic growth zone support more efficiency in rates to overcome the marginal surface wet bulb values and shortly thereafter accumulate quicker. Because of the slow movement of the upper low, this zone of snow should continue over part if not a good portion of the CWA into at least early Saturday morning. Coming out of the nighttime period, snow should be able to continue accumulating on most surfaces even in the southern and eastern CWA, so impacts during that time due to rate and total accumulation should match that of the worst conditions of overnight. The overall persistent depth of the system and broad nature of the TROWAL look like they would support snow into the rest of the day Saturday, but it should become more streaky, and possibly more snow showers as a mode, as the system occludes and drier air pivots in.

The big impacting factors with this will be the duration and rates, especially where this pivots, again most likely over a good portion of the Advisory area from the western Chicago suburbs on westward. Totals of 4+ inches in that area that we have forecast are supported by much of the guidance, just different placement and orientation. Isolated amounts over six inches given the attributes are certainly possible, even with the broadly lower snow ratios (8:1-10:1). On the eastern edge of that over the Chicago metro, there could easily be a very sharp cutoff in amounts, depending on the behavior of the snow area. Also to note, that Saturday morning, especially early morning, should be having notable impacts continuing during that time even possibly beyond the Advisory area. With marginal temperatures and the snow area becoming more limited in coverage, that should support more marginal impacts during the P.M. hours. It seems like the Advisory could be able to be peeled away in parts earlier than its end time, but no changes made at present.

MTF/KMD

LONG TERM. 221 AM CST

Sunday night through Friday .

Fairly benign pattern for the long term period. Weak long wave troughiness over the Great Lakes expected to persist much of the upcoming work week with mainly just some weak clipper-like systems potentially affecting the area with some light precip chances at times. Looks to be a fairly cloudy period with continued above average temps, largely due to above average nighttime lows. Will probably be a bit larger of a temp gradient across the CWA between the deeper snow pack left behind from this current system, but until we have a better idea where the snow pack will lay out, didn't make any adjustments to temps.

- Izzi

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Low ceilings, moderate snow, and (at times) lower visibility remain concerns through this afternoon.

A mid-level low pressure continues to pivot over northeast Illinois early this morning, with the center near Chicago as of TAF issuance. This has resulted in a distinct precip gradient across the Chicago metro. However the precip shield is beginning to fill in across the remainder metro as the low begins to slowly shift east. Precip type is all SN just northwest of ORD, with the transition to SN expected across the remainder of the metro soon. Because the snow has been falling as large flakes/aggregates, visibility reduction has generally been limited to 1-2SM, even in heavier snow bands. Overall, light to moderate SN should continue for several more hours before diminishing for a period around daybreak into mid-morning.

As the low continues to shift east today, a deformation snow band will likely extend northwest from the low across all of the TAFs sites. Snowfall rates under this band could be moderate at times mid morning through mid afternoon before intensity diminishes later this afternoon. A period of -SN mixed with DZ may follow for several hours before precip ends during the evening. Temps should remain near or slightly above freezing during this time.

Low ceilings will continue to be a concern into the morning hours, with widespread LIFR conditions redeveloping, especially in areas where precip intensity is lighter. Visibility may also lower considerably in these locations. Ceilings will have only a gradual improvement through the remainder of the period, likely remaining IFR into at least this evening.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Winter Weather Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021- ILZ022 until midnight Sunday.

IN . None. LM . None.

Visit us at weather.gov/chicago

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSChicago www.twitter.com/NWSChicago www.youtube.com/NWSChicago


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi44 min SSW 15 G 16 34°F 34°F
CNII2 7 mi29 min SSW 5.1 G 8 33°F 32°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi56 min 33°F 1008 hPa33°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi44 min SSW 11 G 14 34°F 33°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi51 minSW 72.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F33°F100%1009.3 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi53 minSW 53.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1008.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi52 minN 03.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F85%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8E8E5E7E6E4E3E4SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW6SW6SW8W8SW8SW7SW6SW7
1 day agoS9S9S8S6S8S8
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2 days agoSW8S10S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.