Lincolnwood, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lincolnwood, IL

April 23, 2024 3:29 AM CDT (08:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM
Moonrise 7:43 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202404231600;;226944 Fzus53 Klot 230803 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 303 am cdt Tue apr 23 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-231600- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 303 am cdt Tue apr 23 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .

Today - Southwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north and increasing to 30 kt late in the evening. A few gales to 35 kt. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.

Wednesday - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt overnight. Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 230736 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Low-topped showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Level 1/5 severe weather threat from about 3 to 8 pm NW of I-55 and north of I-80.

- Areas of frost likely (60%+ chance) late Wednesday night.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday with locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Through Wednesday:

Recent analyses reveal frontogenesis is intensifying across southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska early this morning as 35 to 40 kt 700 mb southwesterlies are intercepting northwesterly flow at the leading edge of an advancing disturbance. Showers and thunderstorms have been gradually expanding in the vicinity of this region of enhanced warm advection, and we'll continue to see an expansion as this disturbance translates eastward through the morning. Seems like there's been a modest northward wobble with the track/location of the primary f-gen circulation, which will be overlapped by strengthening upper jet divergence later this morning and towards midday. Latest indications are the main shield of rain will set up perhaps just north of I-80 and points south. A pretty formidable dry layer across northern Illinois will likely chew away at precipitation chances. We continue to see a signal for a brief period of gustier winds developing this morning (8 am to 11 am) on the northern terminus of the rain shield as sub-cloud evaporation and deeper mixing works to transport 35 to 40 knot flow associated with a diurnally weakening low-level jet towards the surface. Don't have gusts as high as some of the hires guidance reflected in the gridded forecast, although did nudge gusts up a bit in this corridor across the Kankakee River and up towards I-80.

This main slug of stratiform rain will push south of the region through the early afternoon. Attention will then turn towards the main upper vort and an initial pre-frontal trough feature.
Guidance continues to depict a rapid steepening of 0-3 km lapse rates north and west of I-55, as well as surface dewpoints increasing through the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. While these values typically wouldn't be associated with surface based instability, 500 mb temperatures will be falling towards about -25 C during the afternoon across northern Illinois as the parent trough presses southward across Wisconsin. This combination is expected to yield a pretty quick increase in instability in a narrow ribbon along and just ahead of a northwest wind shift. While MLCAPE values won't be particularly high--only about 500 J/kg within this narrow axis--most of it will occur within the 0-3 km layer where a fair amount of veering and strengthening of the wind field will be taking place.

The current expectations are for scattered low-topped convection to develop, possibly as early as 2 PM, but most likely during the 3 to 8 PM time frame as the more notable cooling at 500 mb occurs. With equilibrium levels progged to only be about 20 kft or so, effective deep layer shear will be reduced a bit as it'll be occurring within the roughly 0-3 or 0-4 km layer. Still, guidance depicts deep shear values nearing 40 knots as an impressive 90 kt 500 mb jet streak intensifies overhead. This will certainly be sufficient to facilitate some degree of storm and updraft organization and mid-level rotation.

Given the steep lapse rates and low freezing levels, hail (mainly small, but a few instances up to the size of quarters) along with strong/gusty winds will be the main threats with any more developed cores. With the cold temperatures aloft, LCLs aren't forecast to be all that high today even amidst 50 degree dewpoints, and sufficient looping/clockwise turning hodographs below 2 km suggest that the (brief) tornado threat, while low, isn't entirely zero today. Most hires guidance is suggesting that cells won't necessarily be tied to the region of enhanced near- surface vorticity on the wind shift (instead forming a bit ahead of it), but if any updrafts do manage to sustain in that narrow ribbon, a hybrid supercell/landspout tornado threat could also emerge on the wind shift boundary itself. The main area of interest for the strong-severe threat is roughly NW of I-55 and north of I-80. Convection will probably continue for an hour or three after sunset but should gradually diminish with the loss of heating.

The true cold front will arrive late this evening. Cold advection will send temperatures back into 30s tonight. Across interior northern Illinois, overnight lows will probably dip towards freezing in spots. This doesn't look like much of a frost set up given the expected winds, and with such a limited area of near- freezing temperatures, don't anticipate needing freeze warnings for the region tonight. Wednesday will feature highs in the low to mid 40s near the lake, with low to mid 50s farther inland. There's some uncertainty regarding how expansive post-frontal stratus will remain through the morning, but did end up boosting cloud cover through early afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area.

Carlaw

Wednesday Night through Monday:

High pressure will be moving across the area Wednesday night with light winds expected. There does appear to be a chance for some high clouds overnight into Thursday morning but these may not affect low temps too much, which are expected to be in the lower 30s for most areas outside of Chicago. Areas of frost still look on track for now for most of the area.

The Friday through Sunday time period is looking quite active with periods of showers and thunderstorms. One area of low pressure is expected to move from the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday and then a second area of low pressure is expected to take a similar track Saturday night into Sunday night. Precipitable water values approach 1.5 inches Friday into Friday night and again on Sunday and these two time periods appear to be the most likely for precipitation as trends currently show. Ensemble QPF amounts by Sunday night are generally in the 2-3 inch range for the local area, with some isolated higher amounts. If these materialize, trends will need to be monitored for flooding concerns, especially over the weekend after the first expected wave of precipitation Friday.

The potential for severe storms will also need to be monitored but given the proximity to the surface low, its possible that more widespread or organized severe weather may remain west and northwest of the area Friday with perhaps a little better chance for a severe potential Sunday with the second area of low pressure and possible cold front moving across the area. Though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing/location differences among the models. If the front moves through the area Sunday evening/night, then Monday may end up quiet. A slower evolution/fropa, would introduce the potential for some thunderstorms Monday. cms

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast concerns include...

Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Strong/gusty southwest winds through this evening.
Wind shift to northeast late this evening.
Scattered showers overnight/Light rain mid/late morning.

Scattered showers will continue to move across the terminals over the next few hours. There may be a brief vis reduction in the heaviest showers, but otherwise vfr cigs/vis expected and these will end by 08z-09z. Another area of rain is expected to develop across west central IL after sunrise and spread east/ northeast through the mid/late morning, likely reaching MDW/GYY and perhaps as far north as DPA/ORD. Cigs/vis also expected to remain vfr with this rain. However, there will be mvfr cigs/vis just south of the terminals with this rain. If the entire rain area shifts further north than currently expected, than some mvfr cigs/vis may get as far north as GYY. This rain will shift east and end during the early afternoon. There will then be a chance of thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early evening. These are expected to develop just northwest of the Chicago area terminals and then move southeast across the terminals. Current prob mention has this potential handled for now and expect to transition to tempo mention with later forecasts if trends continue.

Southwest winds will gust into the mid 20kt range through mid morning. Winds are likely to diminish some where the rain develops later this morning but gusts will still be possible.
As winds turn more west/southwest this afternoon, gusts into the 30kt range will be possible. Winds will continue turning northwest this evening then are expected to shift northeast late this evening. High confidence for the wind shifts, but only medium confidence for timing, which may need refinement with later forecasts. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
OKSI2 3 mi90 min WNW 1.9G8 58°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi150 min SSW 33G39 61°F 36°F
CNII2 7 mi45 min S 12G18 56°F 34°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi60 min SSW 13G19 57°F 29.8036°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi90 min S 11
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi50 min SSW 9.9G13 57°F 29.85
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi150 min S 17G21 57°F 29.8631°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi30 min S 8G13 57°F 29.73


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL 13 sm36 minSSW 1110 smOvercast57°F34°F41%29.80
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 15 sm38 minSSW 11G2010 smOvercast55°F36°F47%29.78
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 18 sm37 minSSW 12G1710 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F37°F51%29.79
Link to 5 minute data for KMDW


Wind History from MDW
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Tide / Current for
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Chicago, IL,



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