Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

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Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 18, 2019 12:32 PM CDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201907182130;;255700 Fzus53 Klot 181508 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 1008 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-182130- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 1008 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms this morning then chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Variable winds and higher waves in and near Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the late morning. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 181545
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1045 am cdt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
1045 am cdt
the main change today was to push off the start time of the heat
headlines for the area, especially for northeastern il where the
extreme heat is likely to hold off until tomorrow.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to wane across the area by
early afternoon as the parent disturbance shifts to the east of
the area. However, until then some periods of heavy rain are
likely with these storms. While there is some small concern for
some afternoon redevelopment along the remnant surface outflow
boundaries, it appears that as a corridor of steeper mid- level
lapse rates, associated with an eml, shifts over the area we may
be capped to surfaced based development.

In spite of the waning convective activity this afternoon, it
appears the damage has been done to the surface pressure pattern
due to a good cold pool footprint across northern il. The result
of this will likely linger into the afternoon, with onshore
southeasterly winds over northeastern il resulting in much cooler
conditions then previously forecast into the afternoon. For this
reason, while the area is still expected to see a decent recovery
in temperatures this afternoon as the winds turn southwest late,
it appears unlikely that the excessive heat will reach far
northeastern il this afternoon. Therefore, we have pushed off the
start time of the excessive heat headlines for far northeastern il
until Friday morning. Elsewhere, it does appear that later this
afternoon temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s, with
heat indices in the 105 to 100 range, but this too will occur a
bit later than previously forecast.

Extreme heat is still likely area-wide, especially for Friday and
Saturday, so no changes have been made to this time period.

Kjb

Short term
244 am cdt
through Friday...

for today...

quite the challenging forecast today as a currently-developing
convective complex near the iowa minnesota border has the potential
to disrupt the gradient flow (and thus the high temperature and
dewpoint forecasts) today, in addition to bringing a potential for
strong to severe weather to parts of the area.

Strong low-level warm advection, forced by a robust 40-50 kt llj,
has been interacting with the northeastern periphery of a very steep
mid-level lapse rate plume this evening. The result has been the
development of an area of elevated thunderstorms near the
iowa minnesota border which continues to grow upscale. Should cold
pool amalgamation occur--and latest visual indications point to it--
we should begin to see a more southeastward movement (and possibly
even more southerly after daybreak) to this activity through the
rest of the early-morning hours as an instability axis pivots
eastward. Objective analyses reveal a local minimum in the mucape
field across northwest illinois--likely due to yesterday's forward-
propagating mcs. Veering and strengthening 850 mb winds should,
however, push a reservoir of high theta-e air eastward into the
state over the next few hours. Plenty of spread exists in the hi-res
guidance at this time, but latest thinking has this area of storms
making a run at our region. Best guess at is stands right now is
activity (or additional elevated convection ahead of this main
complex) getting close to our northwest counties by 5-6 am, towards
the i-80 corridor during the 7-9 am timeframe, and possibly
continuing through most of our CWA through 11 am-1 pm (sans perhaps
our far southern row of counties).

The other issue revolves around the potential for additional
elevated convection to bubble over the next several hours across
southwest minnesota, possibly associated with a subtle shortwave and
associated local enhancement to 700 mb warm advection. This has been
indicated by a few hi-res cams, but no clear signal one way or
another exists in the guidance. Should this activity develop into a
second complex, precipitation chances could linger notably longer
across our CWA into the afternoon hours than currently advertised
and further act to disrupt our high temperature forecast.

Forecast soundings show effective inflow layers will likely be
rooted above 925-850 mb, making it unlikely that surface-based
parcels will be able to join in on the convective inflow. In
addition, mid-level flow should weaken some through the early-
morning which would allow outflow to sneak out quickly ahead of this
complex. This casts some doubt as to the severity of whatever
potential complex bears down on the area. Thinking now is that this
complex will be in a weakening trend through the morning hours, but
diurnal gains in instability might allow for some rejuvenation to
occur early this afternoon. We'll continue to advertise a risk for
some 50-60 mph wind gusts this morning and afternoon.

A convective complex(es) would greatly disrupt the background flow
today as an associated cold pool oozes into the region. While some
late-day modification to the airmass is possible, it's looking like
a period of southeasterly winds behind morning convection may keep
dewpoints in the upper 60s and temperatures cooler than previously
forecast. Some guidance even supports the development of a lake
breeze due to the disrupted low-level wind fields.

As a result of all of this, have nudged highs downwards for today,
most notably for locales north and east of a harvard to joliet to
valparaiso line where potential cooling effects from lingering
outflow would be most pronounced. The latest grids will reflect heat
indices rising above 105 degrees south of i-80 after 1 pm, and into
the 99-106 degree range for a brief period late this afternoon as
mid 70s dewpoints return and possibly remaining just in the upper
90s at the immediate lakeshore.

We will not be making any temporal or spatial changes to the ongoing
heat headlines for consistency-of-messaging purposes, but note that
high heat index values may only occur for a brief period late this
afternoon with "cooler" conditions at the lakeshore. However, we
continue to have relatively high confidence that the heat will build
Friday and Saturday.

For tonight...

it's looking like another region of warm advection could spark
additional elevated thunderstorms across southern wisconsin this
evening and overnight within a steep lapse rate plume. Have thrown
in some chance pops across our northern counties as a result as
activity may attempt to build southwestward into the low-level jet.

Have also nudged lows down a bit north and east of i-88 i-39 where
outflow effects could locally cool things a bit. Still looking warm
and uncomfortable south of i-88 and in the heart of chicago as
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s return with lows either side of 80
degrees.

For Friday...

we'll continue to advertise a dry forecast on Friday but may also
have to keep an eye on possible morning convection across western
michigan which could build southwestward along the lake. Assuming
things remain dry and un-muddled from convective debris cloud cover,
temperatures still look set to rise into the upper 90s. Dewpoints in
the mid to possibly upper 70s would support peak heat indices in the
107-115 degree range. Wet bulb globe temperatures of 90-92 degrees
will support a potential for very high heat stress.

Carlaw

Long term
244 am cdt
Friday night through Wednesday...

main focus at the start of the period will be with the likely
continued dangerous heat on Saturday as well as increasing
thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Dry conditions expected at the start of the period, however,
pattern will remain active to our north and northwest. Surface
trough and front expected to be in place across the upper midwest,
with the LLJ once again ramping up across the region. At this
time, it is appearing that this focus should be well enough to the
north to keep the CWA dry Friday night into early Saturday
morning. However, some guidance bringing this focus slightly
further to the south. If this scenario were to occur, would be a
little concerned for some thunderstorms to dive more to the south
into the higher instability. With this still a possibility, have
left slight chance pops for thunder Friday night mainly across the
northern half of the cwa.

Expect much of the day Saturday to be dry, with sunny to partly
cloudy skies initially in place. With a similar air mass still in
place, will see temps once again rise well into the 90s with mid
to upper 90s still forecast for Saturday. Guidance varying to the
extent of the dewpoints in place on Saturday but think low to mid
70s dewpoints are likely. Am a little concerned that there could
be more mid 70s and even mid to upper 70s dewpoints, with some
moisture pooling possibly occurring ahead of approaching front to
the north. With the current forecast highs and dewpoints, expect
dangerous heat indices of 105 to 110. Some locations, south of
i-80, will likely exceed 110 and get into the 110-113 range. These
conditions would continue to support the current excessive heat
warning in place. For the tier of counties along the il in border,
its possible that another heat advisory would be needed. However,
confidence with high temps on Saturday does lower some further to
the north. This is due to the previously mentioned front, that
will likely aid in thunderstorm development in the afternoon and
the evening. Saturday night into Sunday appearing to be active
with these thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.

Front expected to push through the area on Sunday with cooler
temps expected. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible
Sunday morning, but chances will lower Sunday afternoon into the
evening.

Rodriguez

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

main forecast concerns challenges for the TAF period will be with
likely thunderstorms this morning across all of the sites.

Monitoring area of storms currently moving through parts of
northern il, and expect these storms to continue to move east
southeast impacting all of the sites. Only made minor adjustments
to timing based on latest trends, with the rest of the forecast
still on track. The arrival of these storms still looks to bring a
gusty wind shift to the north northwest, with variable winds
likely for an hour or two after. Expect the bulk of these storms
to depart by late morning, but it is possible that a few storms
persist into early afternoon. Lower confidence on this possibility
though. Have a dry forecast for the remainder of the period, but
will need to monitor late tonight into early Friday morning for
another period of thunderstorm potential. Once again, low
confidence with this potential. Outside of this potential,
southwest winds gusts andVFR conditions likely for the remainder
of the period.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Excessive heat warning... Ilz008-ilz010-ilz011-ilz019-ilz020-
ilz021-ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039... 3 pm Thursday
to 7 pm Saturday.

Excessive heat warning... Ilz012-ilz013-ilz014... 10 am Friday to
7 pm Saturday.

Heat advisory... Ilz003... 3 pm Thursday to 11 pm Friday.

Heat advisory... Ilz004-ilz005-ilz006... 10 am Friday to 11 pm
Friday.

In... Excessive heat warning... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019... 3
pm Thursday to 7 pm Saturday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi92 min SSE 12 70°F
OKSI2 3 mi92 min WSW 1 G 2.9 72°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi52 min N 12 G 15 72°F 72°F
45177 4 mi152 min 73°F
CNII2 7 mi17 min ESE 8 G 12 70°F 68°F
JAKI2 12 mi92 min NE 7 G 15 72°F
45174 13 mi22 min SE 14 G 19 1 ft1010.1 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi44 min N 8 G 15 71°F 1014.6 hPa71°F
45186 30 mi32 min SE 14 G 19 69°F 68°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi52 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 1014.9 hPa
45170 38 mi22 min N 12 G 19 73°F 74°F1 ft71°F
45187 38 mi32 min SSE 14 G 18 70°F 65°F1 ft
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi42 min NNE 8 G 8.9 73°F 72°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi32 min SSE 22 G 24 68°F 1010.2 hPa (-3.7)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi39 minNNE 104.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog/Mist72°F71°F97%1014.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi41 minESE 132.50 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Rain Fog/Mist71°F69°F94%1013.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi40 minSE 12 G 1710.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain72°F69°F91%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE8SE6E8E8SE9NE9E6E4SE5SE4S3S4S5S6SW7S4S6S8SW8NW7S4E6N10
1 day agoCalmS8S6CalmW4SE6SE6SE3E6SE3CalmCalmW3W3W3CalmNW4CalmN3N5N4N5N43
2 days agoW15
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SW12S12S6SW6S6SW8S7S6S5S64S8S5S8
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.