Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:21PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:53 AM CST (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201912121030;;217556 Fzus53 Klot 120300 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 900 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-121030- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 900 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am cst Thursday through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt by morning. Becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft toward daybreak.
Thursday..South winds to 30 kt with occasional gales gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance of late rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt by midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the late morning and afternoon.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 120500 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1100 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

UPDATE. 923 PM CST

No major changes to the going forecast for tonight. Made adjustments to hourly temperature trends. Some locations where a half inch to one inch of snow fell earlier today dipped a bit lower than forecast this evening with surface high pressure ridging stretched back across the area and clear skies. For instance, Pontiac briefly got down to 12 degrees within the past few hours. As the surface ridging exits eastward and east to southeast winds gradually increase, along with increasing mid and high clouds, temperatures will rise overnight.

On Thursday, weak surface low will track just northwest and then north of the local area. In response, brisk southerly winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph and likelihood of just mid clouds over the area will support a nice warm-up. Bumped up high temperatures slightly, especially along and southeast of a Peru to Evanston line where cloud cover should be less thick and now have highs in the mid 40s indicated per consensus of MOS guidance. Stout short- wave trough associated with the weak surface low will track north of the area, but glancing blow of forcing and strong isentropic ascent from strong low level jet and WAA will compensate some. Forecast soundings indicate lower levels remaining dry with antecedent air mass starting out quite dry, so a mix of virga and spotty light rain or sprinkles appear possible for areas mainly north of I-88 in northern Illinois. Can't rule out some wet snowflakes mixing in if the spotty precip moves in while temps are still in 30s during mid-late morning, but expect no impacts.

Castro

SHORT TERM. 238 PM CST

Through Thursday .

Surface ridge continues to build across the region this afternoon, with remaining stratus south of I-80 slowly eroding. Additional erosion this afternoon will allow clear skies going into this evening. With clear skies and surface ridge in place, expect temps to steadily fall into the evening with the night time lows occurring during this time. Upstream WAA will spread across the area tonight ahead of an approaching system, with steady or rising temps likely during the overnight hours. Continued WAA and gusty southerly winds on Thursday will support above normal temps in the 40s. Have kept temps in the low 40s, as returning mid/high clouds later tonight will hold in place on Thursday. Approaching mid level vort and surface low are expected to move just north of the CWA, with the bulk of the associated precip likely also staying to the north. Surface front on the backside of this system does work its way toward northwest IL late in the day and could be a source for light precip development Thursday afternoon. If precip were to develop, highest chances would be for locations near the IL/WI border and would expect it to be liquid.

Rodriguez

LONG TERM. 309 PM CST

Friday through Wednesday .

Thursday night and Friday: Low pressure associated with light snow to the north on Thursday will be centered over east-central Wisconsin at 00Z Friday. Meanwhile, an approaching cold front will stall over or just west of the far northwest portion on the CWA. Guidance differs on the amount of lingering moisture along the front, but there is some indication that a sufficiently deep layer of saturation will be present in conjunction with residual frontal convergence to possibly produce light drizzle across northwest of a line from Waukegan to DeKalb to Dixon. Temps should stay at or above freezing during this time, but if drizzle were to continue into the overnight hours, some temps may begin to fall slightly below freezing. Friday is expected to be dry under mid to upper-level clouds ahead of an approaching system for Saturday, though some light precip may encroach on the northwest CWA by 00Z Saturday.

Friday night and Saturday night: Guidance continues to show variability with the evolution of a pair of phasing waves over the region during this time. These waves will likely phase to some degree over the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Saturday morning. The ECMWF continues to back off on the more aggressive solution from a couple days ago and is now mostly dry, whereas the GFS has trended stronger. While some clarity and specifics are still needed, the overall pattern supports the potential for some light WAA precip of rain/snow and possibly some freezing drizzle Friday night into Saturday morning. A more potent bout of snow mixed with some rain will possibly follow with the trough and associated cold front late Saturday morning through the afternoon. If this solution does pan out, a brief period of hazardous conditions with gusty NW winds and moderate snow could occur during the afternoon.

Sunday through Wednesday: Generally zonal flow aloft over surface high pressure across the Upper Mississippi River Valley will produce dry and quiet conditions across the area on Sunday. The larger scale flow will then break down by Monday as troughing over the north Pacific digs into the western CONUS. A prominent southern jet will interact with this trough by late Monday, though guidance differs on where this will initiate. The GFS continues to show a more progressive and ENE-moving mid-level trough producing a notable shield of snow across the forecast area Monday into Monday evening. Considerable spread exists amongst GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members and deterministic guidance, but some ensemble members in both the GEFS and ECMWF advertise a shield of enhanced precip across the CWA. Probabilistically, this appears to be a low chance event with much of the energy likely remaining southeast of CWA, but will continue to monitor if other guidance trends northwest with energy/higher QPF over the coming days.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Dry conditions should prevail through much of the period. The presence of a deep cyclonic flow pattern over the northern Great Lakes suggests the potential for an embedded weak wave to affect the area with light precip at some point during this period.

Kluber

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

- Gusty south winds near 30 kt, and LLWS above shallow mixed layer are the main aviation forecast concerns through Thursday.

Surface high pressure ridge axis has drifted east of the terminals late this evening. Light/variable or calm winds will become light southeast overnight, gradually increasing through daybreak. High clouds will continue to stream into the region through morning.

Low pressure taking shape across the High Plains this evening will lift northeast across northern Lake Michigan by Thursday evening. In response, southeast winds will become gusty Thursday morning, before shifting south-southwest as a warm front lifts north of the terminals late morning. Slightly deeper mixing south of the warm front will support wind gusts increasing to near 30 kt during the day. Despite the mechanical mixing with the gusty surface winds, winds above a shallow inversion aloft will increase to around 50 kts, producing a period of potential LLWS conditions into the afternoon. The gradient will eventually weaken late Thursday into Thursday night, as a weak cold frontal trough approaches from the northwest. This will allow south-southwest winds to slowly diminish.

Dry low level air mass will result in mainly mid and high level cloud cover through much of the day Thursday. Forecast soundings eventually depict lowering VFR clouds late in the day/Thursday night, though with best chance of precipitation generally north of the terminals into WI. Guidance indicates some potential for MVFR ceilings late evening (RFD) or after midnight (Chicago terminals), though confidence is somewhat low at this distance especially if no precip occurs nearby.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745 . 6 AM Thursday to midnight Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742 . 6 AM Thursday to 9 PM Thursday.



VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK . TWITTER . AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi53 min S 18 G 23 26°F 22°F
CNII2 7 mi38 min SSE 8 G 12 24°F 17°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi59 min SSE 8.9 G 12 22°F 1031.1 hPa16°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi53 min SSE 8 G 9.9 21°F 15°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi53 min SW 4.1 G 6 22°F 1031.2 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi60 minSSE 78.00 miMostly Cloudy22°F15°F75%1033.3 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi62 minSSE 79.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F15°F81%1032.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi61 minSSE 49.00 miFair19°F10°F71%1032.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW14
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2 days agoS8S9SW8SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW8SW11SW12W13W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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