Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:37PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:53 PM CDT (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 3:59PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201908260315;;198813 Fzus53 Klot 251944 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 244 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740-741-260315- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- 244 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am cdt Monday through Monday evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 252339
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
639 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Short term
233 pm cdt
through Monday...

the primary weather story through the period will be the
increasing chances for rain across the area late tonight and into
Monday.

The main weather maker of interest for our area into Monday is the
mid upper level disturbance currently shifting over northwestern
mo, per water vapor imagery. This feature is expected to shift
east-northeastward over il on Monday as a larger scale trough
begins to dig over the northern plains and the upper great lakes.

As it does so, a corridor of deep gulf moisture (featuring
precipitable water values around 2") will be transported
northward up the mississippi valley tonight into Monday morning,
essentially setting up the ingredients for a wet morning across
the area.

While some scattered sprinkles, or light rain showers, will be
possible across the area late this afternoon and evening, it
appears the better moisture will not arrive until after midnight.

Therefore, we should see an uptick in shower activity later this
evening and overnight as warm moisture air advection (isentropic
upglide) continues to increase. The shower coverage will likely
peak in coverage around, or just prior to, daybreak through late
morning when the upper level disturbance moves over the area. Some
moderate to heavy rain rates will be possible with these showers
as they should be very efficient rainfall producers. This could
result in some minor localized flooding issues. Otherwise, shower
activity should become more widely scattered during the afternoon.

There is also a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms with this
activity, but lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor, so
thunderstorms should remain limited.

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is likely Monday night
in association with the approach of a cold front.

Given we will see a great deal of cloud cover and some rain
Monday, temperatures will likely remain in the 70s.

Kjb

Long term
308 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

Monday night: an upper trough axis within a developing upper low
over far southeast manitoba will shift east across the CWA during
this time. Meanwhile, as associated surface low will push a cold
front across the area. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
be ongoing early Monday evening in response to increasing low-level
flow and resultant WAA moisture transport ahead of the approaching
trough front. Shower and storm activity will increase across eastern
ia and northeast missouri early in the evening and expand NE into
the forecast area through the remainder of the evening into the
overnight hours.

The dynamics with this system will be seasonably strong for late
august. Meanwhile, a modestly unstable evening airmass will be
present owing to increasing mid-level lapse rates and surface
moisture. This will support broken clusters of convection along the
front and trough axis that may contain strong to marginally severe
wind gusts. Additionally, high pwat values and a deep layer below
the freezing level support very heavy rain with any thunderstorm.

Some training along the front implies at least some localized
flooding risk.

Tuesday and Wednesday: any lingering showers across the eastern cwa
at daybreak Tuesday should quickly exit to the east as the cold
front and upper trough axis clear the area. An upper low will form
and then stall over northern ontario through Wednesday, keeping the
area in continued cyclonic flow with embedded weak disturbances. With
an overall lack of moisture, the passing of any weak disturbances
should be inconsequential for precip and affect mainly just the mass
fields. The surface gradient flow between strong low pressure under
the upper low and high pressure extending into the ohio valley will
produce gusty west winds on Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: the upper low will begin to shift NE on
Tuesday ahead of a fast-moving trough within wnw flow aloft that
will brush the area to the north on Thursday night. An associated
cold front will then stall somewhere across illinois and indiana by
Friday through Saturday. Guidance differs on the exact location over
which it stalls, but at least slight chances pops are warranted both
days with the front in the vicinity. High pressure with seasonably
cool conditions will then build back into the region for Sunday.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

scattered -shra over western il late this afternoon should slowly
push east and gradually eat away at the low level dry air and
allow for initially virga to transition to some showers this
evening.VFR CIGS and no vsby restrictions expected with shower
activity this evening into the early part of the overnight hours.

Well defined upper level disturbance over northern mo will
continue moving eastward and should spread an area of rain and
showers east into the chicago area terminals late tonight,
continuing Monday morning. Given the increasing moisture and
fairly strong forcing, could be some periods of moderate to heavy
rain Monday morning. Cannot rule out some embedded tsra Monday
morning, but instability looks to be meager and progged to arrive
in conjunction with the rain and given the less than ideal time of
day, opted to keep mention of tsra out of the tafs, but it is
something later shifts will need to reassess.

The rain should help saturate the low level and with continue
flow off the lake and warm front to our south, set-up seems to
support ifr CIGS developing Monday morning and perhaps lingering
into the early to mid afternoon. Should diurnally see CIGS lift
slowly Monday afternoon as the wave moves east and rain ends. A
bit more pronounced lifting and possible scattering of the low
cigs could occur late in the afternoon or early evening when if
warm front lifts north of the terminals. If warm front does indeed
lift north, we would likely lose the easterly component to the
winds, probably shifting more into the 180-200 range.

Another shot of shra tsra is possible Monday night either
beginning toward the end of this 30 hour TAF cycle or just beyond.

Given low confidence in timing and occurrence, opted to keep tafs
dry tomorrow evening for now.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014... 1 am Monday to 10 pm
Monday.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741... 1 am Monday to 10 pm
Monday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi114 min ESE 6 73°F
OKSI2 3 mi114 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 74°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi34 min E 15 G 18 73°F 64°F
45177 4 mi114 min 74°F1 ft
CNII2 7 mi39 min E 13 G 14 73°F 57°F
JAKI2 12 mi114 min ESE 6 G 8 74°F
45174 13 mi24 min E 14 G 16 73°F2 ft1015.1 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi54 min E 8.9 G 11 74°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.9)60°F
45186 30 mi34 min E 12 G 16 72°F 72°F2 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 33 mi74 min E 6 G 9.9 75°F 1016.3 hPa
45170 38 mi24 min E 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 67°F1 ft60°F
45187 38 mi34 min ESE 12 G 16 75°F 72°F2 ft
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi34 min ENE 7 G 7 72°F 55°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi54 min E 14 G 15 71°F 1016.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi61 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F55°F48%1014.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi63 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast72°F57°F59%1015.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi62 minENE 710.00 miFair73°F57°F57%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E8E10SE4SE4SE4SE5SE5SE5SE6SE7SE6SE6SE9SE11S7E10
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1 day agoNE12NE6NE7NE7NE7E6E4SE7E4SE5SE8SE6SE9SE9E11E11
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2 days agoNE10NE10NE13NE11NE10NE7E7E6E6E7NE9NE9E12
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E13N13NE12N13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.