Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Province, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 10, 2020 8:42 PM EDT (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:47PMMoonset 10:37AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers this evening, then showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Tropical storm fay will impact mostly the south coast and outer eastern waters this evening into Saturday with high surf and dangerous rip currents. A cold front will cross the waters early Sunday and another cold front crosses the water Monday. Warm front lifts north on Wednesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 41.99, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 102358 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 758 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Tropical Storm Fay will bring a period heavy rain to our region. There is potential for some flooding mainly across western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. Most of this rain will come to an end by mid morning Saturday, but it will be quite humid and a few strong thunderstorms are possible later Saturday afternoon across western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. Beyond Saturday, things remain unsettled with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the first half of next week. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity returns on Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/.

730 PM Update .

Tropical Storm Fay over eastern NJ this evening per KDIX radar. Fay still expected to move northward tonight, with the center remaining west of southern New England. Still will see bands of rainfall tonight. Per SPC Mesoanalysis there is a tropical moisture plume of 2.3 to 2.4 PWATs advecting in. This would break the PWAT record for this time of year at CHH, so still expecting warm rain processes to result in highly efficient showers. Forecast generally on track with previous update, but have tweaked precipitation chances based on radar observations.

Previous discussion .

Tropical Storm Fay was close to the southeast NJ coast this afternoon. Fay is expected to move north tonight, with the center remaining west of southern New England. With this track near our region, looking more at bands of showers and thunderstorms rather than a widespread, continuous rainfall all night. Will continue with the Flash Flood Watch, as precipitation efficiency will be high owing to the presence of tropical moisture and a deep layer dominated by the warm rain process. Downpours could also lead to nuisance flooding outside the Flash Flood Watch area.

Above normal temperatures continue tonight.

As for winds, not expecting sustained winds to tropical storm force well away from coastal areas. However, certainly think that some gusts could reach 25-35 mph. While the severe weather threat remains low, can see the possibility of stronger gusts from thunderstorms. Model soundings indicated some ingredients will be in place where we will need to monitor for tornadoes. This is a very low risk, but is not uncommon with tropical cyclones.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/.

Fay should be well into northern New England/upstate NY by Saturday morning, and even farther north by the end of the day. Expecting the rainfall to briefly abate during the morning. While dry weather will likely persist across eastern MA/RI through the afternoon, a few strong thunderstorms are possible across western MA and CT into the evening with greatest risk near and west of the CT River Valley. Modest instability will develop across interior southern New England with 1500 to 2500 J/KG of CAPE. While deep layer shear is limited, modest low level wind fields may result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms. There also could be some training, so torrential rainfall/localized flooding would be possible.

Tropical humidity will continue, as will above normal temperatures.

High Surf/Dangerous Rip Currents .

We will have to monitor the potential for high surf and dangerous rip currents Saturday. This a result of leftover swell, which may be problematic for beachgoers.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Highlights .

* Breezy Sunday with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior.

* Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances on Monday before the drier weather returns

* Slightly cooler and less humid early to mid next week. Heat and humidity returns late in the week.

Details .

Amplified flow pattern initially in the extended, but will transition to more of a zonal pattern by mid next week. This will initially keep the Northeast under a broad trough, which will bring periodic shower/thunderstorm chances. High pressure becoming more dominant late in the week with several weak disturbances sliding through that are hard to time out.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night .

Shortwave trough lifting from the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England through this period. Will see another trough lift from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes late on Saturday into Sunday.

The showers and thunderstorms associated with the first wave will linger into the night time hours, but will diminish in coverage as a dry slot works its way into the region. Will remain warm across southern New England as moisture lingering within the boundary layer. Lows will generally be in the low 70s across much of southern New England.

Expect strong heating due to the clearing from the dry slot on Sunday. In addition will still have the trough nearby in northern New England. Not out of the question there could be a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Bulk shear values within the 0-6 km layer increase to 25-35 kts with around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This couples with nearly adiabatic low level lapse rates and mid level lapse rates approaching 7 degrees Celsius per km - which would be supportive for stronger updraft maintenance. Still anticipate it to be breezy with a 25-30 kt 925 hPa jet overhead/nearby.

Low level winds at 925 hPa will shift to a westerly direction, which will bring strong downsloping to southern New England. Have bumped up high temperatures to the 75th percentile of guidance. This results in readings ranging from the 80s across many locations to the low 90s in the CT and Merrimack River Valleys.

Should see any showers/storm tapering off Sunday evening due to the trough exiting and the loss of day time heating. Skies should clear quickly with some weak ridging in wake of the trough lifting out and the other trough lifting in. Nudged down lows to the 25th percentile of guidance as am anticipating strong radiational cooling. Lows will generally be in the 60s, but could see some 70 degree readings along coastal locations.

Monday through Tuesday .

Trough lifts into New England on Monday bringing a better shot of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Will be slightly cooler as a result of the increased cloud cover in place. Best shot of showers and thunderstorms is across the interior. Closed low forms over northern New England, which will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. This will shift flow to westerly/northwesterly flow at 850 hPa, which will advect cooler air into the region. Expect the coolest readings on Tuesday with readings in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Thursday .

Drier weather expected mid to late in the week as flow becomes more zonal aloft. High pressure becomes more dominant as it builds into the region. Will see flow become more southwesterly, which will advect a more hot and humid airmass. Temperatures jumping back into the upper 80s in lower 90s across parts of southern New England.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . Moderate confidence.

Bands of showers with brief period of torrential rainfall anticipated. Could have some embedded thunder as well, but confidence too low to include in the latest forecast. Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR. Expect brief periods of LIFR, but should see these conditions dominate over ACK tonight. SE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected with the strongest near the south coast. LLWS expected to develop towards the south coast.

Saturday . Moderate confidence.

Bulk of showers end by mid morning. Will see conditions improving to VFR by late morning/early afternoon as drier air moves in. Still will have to watch for the potential of a few strong thunderstorms developing during the afternoon across western MA/northern CT, with the greatest risk west of the CT River Valley.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/ .

Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Monday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

MARINE.

Today through Saturday . Moderate confidence.

Tropical Storm Fay looks to pass far enough west of our waters, which should prevent the need for Tropical Headlines. Nonetheless, rough seas will develop across the southern coastal waters with SE winds of 25 to 30 knots. The winds will shift to the southwest Saturday as the remnants of Fay move over northern New England, but 20 to 30 knot wind gusts expected. Rough seas will also continue through Saturday, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/ .

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for CTZ002>004. MA . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MAZ002-003- 008>011. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-251.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . Belk/BL SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . BL AVIATION . Belk/BL MARINE . Belk/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 16 mi113 min E 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 2 ft1014.9 hPa66°F
44090 18 mi46 min 71°F1 ft
CHTM3 22 mi175 min S 4.1 G 6 67°F 1014.9 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 36 mi73 min ESE 16 G 18 71°F 72°F1013.9 hPa71°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi58 min ENE 6 74°F 1014 hPa74°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi113 min ESE 12 G 12 69°F 68°F2 ft1013.1 hPa69°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 46 mi99 min SSE 12 G 14 68°F 2 ft1012.2 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi55 min 73°F 71°F1013.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi55 min SE 11 G 20 73°F 75°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA8 mi47 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1014.5 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA20 mi51 minSE 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F90%1014.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi47 minESE 810.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVC

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:17 PM EDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:16 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.45.16.77.887.25.94.22.40.90.30.823.55.16.67.37.26.34.93.41.91.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts
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Provincetown
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:44 AM EDT     9.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:21 PM EDT     8.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.85.87.89.29.48.67.15.12.910.20.72.13.85.97.78.78.57.55.94.12.31.21.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.