Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Province, MA

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Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday July 18, 2019 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:35PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 407 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 407 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of barry will pass across the waters today, then will head offshore this evening. High pres builds across northern new england today, bringing e-ne winds across the waters. The high will move E across nova scotia tonight. South to southwest winds will bring increasing heat and humidity Fri and Sat. A cold front will slowly approach on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and Thunderstorms which may linger into Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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location: 41.99, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180756
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
356 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across central and
southern areas through the overnight as a cold front slowly
pushes south. More showers are expected into Thursday, which
may also result in localized flooding. Hot and humid conditions
Friday through Sunday with heat related headlines likely but
will be watching for possible surprise thunderstorm activity. A
sweeping cold front Monday with a scattered line of showers and
thunderstorm Monday behind which relief in the form of
seasonable temperatures, lower humidity is on tap into late july.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1050 pm update...

while the watches ended at 8 pm for severe and flash flood
potential, another area of showers and scattered thunderstorms
pushed across SE ny SW ct this evening. This area has been
moving steadily a bit north of due e, with another round of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms moving into W central
ri. Noting c g lightning in that area at 03z, along with winds
up to about 25 kt or so. Also seeing another batch of sct
thunderstorms
any spotty convection across NE ct ri interior SE mass may
linger through around 06z-07z, then should dissipate as the
area of precip continues to shift E through the remainder of
the night.

General calm or light SW winds in place across the region as a
trough across N ri NE ct weakens further overnight. However,
with high pwats and enough convergence, sct showers will linger
through the remainder of the night.

Areas of dense fog will be a concern for mainly the islands,
though could reach to the S coast overnight with low t td
spreads there.

Expect temps to bottom out in the lower-mid 70s at most
locations, though could be a bit cooler across the higher
inland terrain.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
* additional showers with localized heavy rainfall will be a
concern on Thursday mainly south of the ma turnpike.

After a lull in the activity later tonight, showers should
increase in coverage toward daybreak Thursday. Showers will
continue at times Thursday with the focus south of the ma
turnpike. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible. We
can not rule out localized flooding mainly south of the ma
turnpike, in the vicinity of a stalled boundary and higher
pwats. Confidence is rather low though on what exactly will
transpire, but if any flooding occurs it probably will be rather
localized. High temperatures on Thursday will be held mainly in
the 70s with clouds and a northeast flow.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Big picture...

zonal flow continues across the northern half of the usa Saturday
while subtropical high pressure controls the southern half. The
subtropical high builds north over the western usa Sunday through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, shortwave energy ejects from a closed low over
the north pacific and races east. This shortwave eventually merges
with a closed upper low over hudsons bay, and the combined system
digs over the northeast usa as the western upper ridge builds.

Normal 500-mb heights for mid july are 580 to 582 dm. Forecast
heights build to 591 dm over the weekend, then trend lower from late
Sunday through Wednesday as the upper trough digs in. From this, we
expect above-normal temperatures Friday night through Sunday, then a
trend to near normal temperatures early next week.

General agreement among the model mass and thermal fields through
the weekend. The fields early next week show a similar general
pattern with small differences. Overall forecast confidence is
moderate-high, but confidence in timing of the cold fronts early
next week is low-moderate.

Concerns...

Friday night through Sunday...

high pressure surface and aloft builds over southern new england.

Plenty of hot air with this high, which should keep the airmass
rainfree for much of the weekend. The best chance for any showers
will be late Sunday as the high diminishes.

High pressure and subsidence should give us a period of rain-free
weather. The airmass in place will have pw values around 2 inches
through the weekend, and is also expected to have surface dew points
70 to 75. Mixing to 850 mb will tap temperatures of 21-23c, which
would support MAX sfc temps of 96-101f. This is at or near record
territory. We continue to list high temp records and high min temp
records in our climate section below. The combination of these
factors leads to heat index values of 100 to 110, except 90s on the
south coast. At a minimum, much of the area will require a heat
advisory... Some places may eventually need an excessive heat
warning. In anticipation, we will be issuing an excessive heat watch
for Saturday with this package.

Model precipitation fields continue to show measurable showers to
our north and to our south on Saturday. Surface-based CAPE values in
our area Saturday range from 2000 to 4000 j kg, totals are 50-55, li
is -6 to -9. That's a lot of instability available for convection.

But how tough will it be to break through the hot air into the
deeper atmosphere? Temperatures at 700 mb on Saturday continue to be
forecast at 13c. It would take a surface temperature near 110f to
support dry adiabatic lift past that level. How about moist
adiabatic lift from 850 mb to 700 mb? Well, that might do it except
that the forecast soundings for Saturday are quite dry aloft,
leaving little moisture for cloud or rain development which would be
needed for a moist adiabatic trace. Because of that, we are
forecasting pops below 15 pct Saturday and Saturday night.

The ridge will diminish Sunday, but the effects from Saturday should
linger into at least part of Sunday. Temperatures at 850 mb will be
20-23c supporting high sfc temps of 95 to 100. Dew points will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s, so another muggy day. The 700 mb temps
will relax below 10c late in the day, especially north of a bos-hfd
line. Higher moisture amounts will move into the mixed layer,
associated with an approaching weak cold front. Expect a hot and
humid day with a chance of thunderstorms... Best chance north of the
mass pike. Leftovers from the thunder could affect southern areas
Sunday night before they fade away.

Monday through Wednesday...

a more substantial cold front moves south through our area Monday.

This front will have better dynamic support as the upper jet shifts
south into ny and northern new england. Expect scattered
showers thunderstorms with the frontal passage.

As the upper trough digs more over the northeast usa, it is possible
the Monday cold front stalls south of new england. Shortwaves moving
through the trough could then generate waves along the front which
could bring a chance of showers Tuesday. Best of all, lower dew
point air works down from the north and should overspread the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Overnight... Most areas were mainlyVFR at 03z, except lifr-vlifr
conditions across the lower and mid CAPE as well as the islands
with SW wind flow keeping areas of fog across those locations.

Conditions may lower across portions of NE ct ri SE interior
mass after 07z or so in patchy fog. Sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms still a possibility through around 07z mainly near
and S of the mass pike.

Thursday... MVFR to ifr conditions expected in rounds
of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. The
heaviest rainfall may setup near and south of the ma
turnpike... Which may result in brief lifr conditions. Lifr
conditions also possible in fog across the southeast new england
coast.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... High confidence.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible in patchy br.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible late. Slight
chance shra, isolated tsra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Overnight and Thursday... Showers and isolated tstms will
continue at times overnight into Thursday along with areas of
fog. Also, will have to watch for a period of northeast wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots across the northern waters behind the
remnants of barry, where a small craft advisory may be needed.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... High confidence.

Friday night through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday night through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Climate
Record highest min temps for Saturday july 20:
bos: 75 in 2016
bdl: 73 in 1975
pvd: 77 in 1983
orh: 72 in 2013
record highs for Saturday july 20:
bos: 99 in 1991
bdl: 100 in 1991
pvd: 101 in 1991
orh: 92 in 1901
record highest min temps for Sunday july 21:
bos: 81 in 1991
bdl: 74 in 1977
pvd: 77 in 1980
orh: 73 in 1991
record highest MAX temps for Sunday july 21
bos: 102 in 1977
bdl: 101 in 1991
pvd: 102 in 1991
orh: 95 in 1926

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for maz002>021-026.

Ri... Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for riz001>007.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Evt
short term... Frank
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb frank evt
marine... Wtb frank evt
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 16 mi53 min S 5.8 G 5.8 70°F 1 ft1012 hPa (-0.8)70°F
44090 18 mi43 min 72°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 36 mi63 min 75°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi118 min Calm 75°F 1011 hPa75°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi53 min N 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 69°F1 ft1011 hPa (-0.9)70°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 46 mi99 min N 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 70°F1 ft1010.7 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi55 min 72°F1011.9 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi55 min S 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 75°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA8 mi47 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F71°F97%1012.6 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA20 mi51 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F97%1012.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi47 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist74°F71°F91%0 hPa

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmN3NW4NW5NW5NW4NW4SW4SW4S6SW8SW8S9SW11SW9SW11SW11SW10SW10SW8SW7SW10SW9SW10
2 days agoN9NW9NW8NW9NW9NW9W9NW10NW10NW9NW7NW8NW5W4S6S4SW5CalmS4SW3SW4CalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
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Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     8.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     7.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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88.47.86.64.82.80.900.31.32.84.76.37.37.36.55.23.51.80.912.13.65.4

Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts
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Provincetown
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     9.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EDT     8.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.4109.47.95.83.41.1-0.10.11.235.37.38.58.67.86.24.32.3112.246.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.