Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Duxbury, MA
October 2, 2023 11:29 PM EDT (03:29 UTC)
Sunrise 6:39AM Sunset 6:25PM Moonrise 8:08PM Moonset 10:31AM
ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1001 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night through Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night through Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1001 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds west of the waters this evening and Tue. The high will move over the waters Wed before pushing further offshore on Thu. A frontal system brings the next shot for rain showers late on Fri into Sat.
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds west of the waters this evening and Tue. The high will move over the waters Wed before pushing further offshore on Thu. A frontal system brings the next shot for rain showers late on Fri into Sat.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 030205 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1005 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure west of New England will provide dry and quiet weather for much of this week. Near record warmth on Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday. Should be drier Sunday into early next week, but it could be breezy at times.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Update: 10 PM...
Forecast continues on track this evening, though did trend overnight lows down a bit cooler do to the quickly falling temperatures, otherwise no major changes necessary during this update.
Cooler spots likely to drop into the low and middle-40s. Have noticed very patchy fog beginning to develop across typical locations that see radiational cooling and fog.
Previous Discussion...
Clear conditions persist through the overnight as strong mid level ridging and surface high pressure continues to build into southern New England. Previous HRRR smoke forecasts performed poorly during the daylight hours on Monday, such that any smoke that was previously expected over the region this evening and tonight, which would perhaps have a mild influence on radiational cooling, was removed from the forecast.
In addition to the removal of smoke in the near term forecast, lower than forecast dewpoints have developed, thus, trended dewpoints towards the lower bound of guidance, namely using the NAM. Dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s will act as the lower bound for temperatures overnight, with decent radiational cooling expected as winds decouple under clear conditions. Radiation fog is expected to develop across our fog prone interior localities, especially along the CT River Valley and southeast MA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
This beautiful stretch of weather, really by any time of year's standard but especially early October, continues into Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees either side of 80F for highs; some 10-12 degrees above normal, as synoptic flow turns more WNW tomorrow, allowing 850mb temps of 15-17C to build over our area. Any morning fog will dissipate by 15Z.
Winds are expected to be lighter tomorrow compared to what was observed today given the weak LLJ of 15-25kt draped over southeastern MA and RI, born from the pesky coastal remnant low across the far southern waters, is suppressed even farther south.
Given the HRRR smoke performed so poorly for Monday, and satellite obs provide no reasonable origin for smoke tomorrow, did not include haze/smoke in the forecast. Anticipating it will be a beautiful, bluebird day for the region. The RAP, which performed slightly better on Monday, yields very low smoke concentrations, that would amount to not much more than a slight haze on the low horizon.
Tuesday night will feature similar conditions to Monday night, though will be warmer as dewpoints warm into the 50s and 60s. As with most nights during Fall, River Valley radiation fog is again possible.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights...
* Dry and quiet weather continues through at least Thursday if not Friday. Still mild on Wed, but temps trending more seasonable as we head late into the week.
* Next shot for widespread showers is late Fri into Sat with thunderstorms possible.
* Drier and cooler Sun/Mon.
Details...
Wednesday and Thursday...
The mid level ridge axis that has been/will be controlling our weather of late should be directly over SNE Wednesday morning as is slowly marches east. At the surface the center of the high will be just out ahead of it. This spells very light winds with seabreezes at the coast and subsidence keeping clouds to a bare minimum each day. Temperatures Wednesday will once again be very warm for early October, especially in the interior where highs will get into the low 80s (compared to normal which is around 70). Cooler but still abnormally warm along the coast, in the 70s. For Thursday the airmass moderates a bit as 850 temps drop from 17C to 14-15C allowing highs to cool several degrees, to the mid/upper 70s. There will be a good amount of radiational cooling overnight so the forecast has been trended toward the MOS guidance, in the low to mid 50s for lows.
Friday and Saturday...
A high amplitude trough then digs into the Great Lakes by Saturday, so in the 12-24 hours leading up to that we'll see winds turn out of the SW and direct a very moist airmass into the region ahead of the trough. This means increasing cloudcover Friday, with potentially even some warm frontal showers as early as Friday afternoon.
Guidance at this point remains split as to how quickly warm advection precip arrives but at this point it is looking like we won't escape with a completely dry day on Friday. The wettest period looks to be Friday night and Saturday, continuing our tradition of wet weekends this year. Some guidance indicates a few hundred J/kg of CAPE ahead of the cold front along with strong bulk shear so we may be dealing with some thunderstorm activity, but too soon for details at this juncture. Good news is that the second half of the weekend looks to be post frontal and drier (though still under cyclonic flow). Regardless of precip chances, temperatures will likely be taking quite a drop for the second half of the weekend.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z Update...
Through Tuesday morning...
VFR, with the exception of patchy IFR/LIFR at fog prone terminals like BAF and BDL just prior to sunrise Tuesday.
Otherwise, N/NE winds this afternoon of 10-15kt diminish overnight as they turn W/SW for by early morning.
Tuesday and Tuesday night... VFR as patchy morning fog burns off by 15Z. Winds generally W/WSW, less than 10kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. E/ENE winds gusting to 15 kt today diminish overnight becoming WSW for Tuesday, less than 10kt. VFR through the period.
KBDL Terminal...moderate confidence in TAF. VFR through midnight tonight, patchy fog may develop by sunrise yielding IFR/LIFR conditions but confidence is low to moderate. Winds generally light, becoming W/WSW for tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Relatively light winds expected across the waters through Tuesday. Seas will gradually subside through Tuesday with any remaining SCA falling off overnight tonight and early Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
CLIMATE
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 3rd
BOS 85 in 1922 BDL 85 in 1919 PVD 83 in 1919 and 1922 ORH 83 in 1898
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 4th
BOS 86 in 2007 BDL 86 in 2007 PVD 85 in 1941 and 1959 ORH 85 in 1898 and 1931
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1005 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure west of New England will provide dry and quiet weather for much of this week. Near record warmth on Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday. Should be drier Sunday into early next week, but it could be breezy at times.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Update: 10 PM...
Forecast continues on track this evening, though did trend overnight lows down a bit cooler do to the quickly falling temperatures, otherwise no major changes necessary during this update.
Cooler spots likely to drop into the low and middle-40s. Have noticed very patchy fog beginning to develop across typical locations that see radiational cooling and fog.
Previous Discussion...
Clear conditions persist through the overnight as strong mid level ridging and surface high pressure continues to build into southern New England. Previous HRRR smoke forecasts performed poorly during the daylight hours on Monday, such that any smoke that was previously expected over the region this evening and tonight, which would perhaps have a mild influence on radiational cooling, was removed from the forecast.
In addition to the removal of smoke in the near term forecast, lower than forecast dewpoints have developed, thus, trended dewpoints towards the lower bound of guidance, namely using the NAM. Dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s will act as the lower bound for temperatures overnight, with decent radiational cooling expected as winds decouple under clear conditions. Radiation fog is expected to develop across our fog prone interior localities, especially along the CT River Valley and southeast MA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
This beautiful stretch of weather, really by any time of year's standard but especially early October, continues into Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees either side of 80F for highs; some 10-12 degrees above normal, as synoptic flow turns more WNW tomorrow, allowing 850mb temps of 15-17C to build over our area. Any morning fog will dissipate by 15Z.
Winds are expected to be lighter tomorrow compared to what was observed today given the weak LLJ of 15-25kt draped over southeastern MA and RI, born from the pesky coastal remnant low across the far southern waters, is suppressed even farther south.
Given the HRRR smoke performed so poorly for Monday, and satellite obs provide no reasonable origin for smoke tomorrow, did not include haze/smoke in the forecast. Anticipating it will be a beautiful, bluebird day for the region. The RAP, which performed slightly better on Monday, yields very low smoke concentrations, that would amount to not much more than a slight haze on the low horizon.
Tuesday night will feature similar conditions to Monday night, though will be warmer as dewpoints warm into the 50s and 60s. As with most nights during Fall, River Valley radiation fog is again possible.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights...
* Dry and quiet weather continues through at least Thursday if not Friday. Still mild on Wed, but temps trending more seasonable as we head late into the week.
* Next shot for widespread showers is late Fri into Sat with thunderstorms possible.
* Drier and cooler Sun/Mon.
Details...
Wednesday and Thursday...
The mid level ridge axis that has been/will be controlling our weather of late should be directly over SNE Wednesday morning as is slowly marches east. At the surface the center of the high will be just out ahead of it. This spells very light winds with seabreezes at the coast and subsidence keeping clouds to a bare minimum each day. Temperatures Wednesday will once again be very warm for early October, especially in the interior where highs will get into the low 80s (compared to normal which is around 70). Cooler but still abnormally warm along the coast, in the 70s. For Thursday the airmass moderates a bit as 850 temps drop from 17C to 14-15C allowing highs to cool several degrees, to the mid/upper 70s. There will be a good amount of radiational cooling overnight so the forecast has been trended toward the MOS guidance, in the low to mid 50s for lows.
Friday and Saturday...
A high amplitude trough then digs into the Great Lakes by Saturday, so in the 12-24 hours leading up to that we'll see winds turn out of the SW and direct a very moist airmass into the region ahead of the trough. This means increasing cloudcover Friday, with potentially even some warm frontal showers as early as Friday afternoon.
Guidance at this point remains split as to how quickly warm advection precip arrives but at this point it is looking like we won't escape with a completely dry day on Friday. The wettest period looks to be Friday night and Saturday, continuing our tradition of wet weekends this year. Some guidance indicates a few hundred J/kg of CAPE ahead of the cold front along with strong bulk shear so we may be dealing with some thunderstorm activity, but too soon for details at this juncture. Good news is that the second half of the weekend looks to be post frontal and drier (though still under cyclonic flow). Regardless of precip chances, temperatures will likely be taking quite a drop for the second half of the weekend.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z Update...
Through Tuesday morning...
VFR, with the exception of patchy IFR/LIFR at fog prone terminals like BAF and BDL just prior to sunrise Tuesday.
Otherwise, N/NE winds this afternoon of 10-15kt diminish overnight as they turn W/SW for by early morning.
Tuesday and Tuesday night... VFR as patchy morning fog burns off by 15Z. Winds generally W/WSW, less than 10kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. E/ENE winds gusting to 15 kt today diminish overnight becoming WSW for Tuesday, less than 10kt. VFR through the period.
KBDL Terminal...moderate confidence in TAF. VFR through midnight tonight, patchy fog may develop by sunrise yielding IFR/LIFR conditions but confidence is low to moderate. Winds generally light, becoming W/WSW for tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Relatively light winds expected across the waters through Tuesday. Seas will gradually subside through Tuesday with any remaining SCA falling off overnight tonight and early Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
CLIMATE
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 3rd
BOS 85 in 1922 BDL 85 in 1919 PVD 83 in 1919 and 1922 ORH 83 in 1898
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 4th
BOS 86 in 2007 BDL 86 in 2007 PVD 85 in 1941 and 1959 ORH 85 in 1898 and 1931
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGHG MARSHFIELD MUNI GEORGE HARLOW FIELD,MA | 7 sm | 14 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.16 | |
| KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA | 7 sm | 37 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.18 | |
| KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA | 20 sm | 9 min | calm | 2 sm | Clear | Mist | 45°F | 43°F | 93% | 30.18 |
Wind History from GHG
(wind in knots)Plymouth
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT 10.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM EDT -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT 11.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT -1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT 10.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM EDT -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT 11.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:40 PM EDT -1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Plymouth, Massachusetts, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 8 |
| 1 am |
| 10.1 |
| 2 am |
| 10.7 |
| 3 am |
| 9.8 |
| 4 am |
| 7.9 |
| 5 am |
| 5.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.2 |
| 11 am |
| 5 |
| 12 pm |
| 7.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 10.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 11.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 10.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 9 |
| 5 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.5 |
Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:50 AM EDT -4.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM EDT 4.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 12:15 PM EDT -0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:12 PM EDT -4.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT 0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 09:23 PM EDT 4.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:50 AM EDT -4.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM EDT 4.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 12:15 PM EDT -0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:12 PM EDT -4.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT 0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 09:23 PM EDT 4.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.9 |
| 1 am |
| -3.6 |
| 2 am |
| -4.7 |
| 3 am |
| -4.9 |
| 4 am |
| -4.5 |
| 5 am |
| -3.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 4.4 |
| 9 am |
| 4.7 |
| 10 am |
| 4.4 |
| 11 am |
| 3.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| -4.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -4.9 |
| 4 pm |
| -4.7 |
| 5 pm |
| -3.8 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4 |
Boston, MA,
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