Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stevensville, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A cold front is entering far northwest IN as of this writing. Breezy along and ahead of the front with wind gusts of 30-40 mph. There is some clearing noted on satellite (aiding wind gusts) but very little to note in terms of a cumulus field. Short-term stabilization is at play in the wake of convection that moved through central IN and areas far south of US 24 this morning. This will need to be overcome for any storms to develop ahead of the cold front. This appears unlikely due to a contaminated source region off to our south. Some CAMs depict isolated storms this afternoon primarily along and east of I-69. A limiting factor here could be rather modest lapse rates and fairly dry forecast soundings. Can't completely rule out a severe storm this afternoon but the severe weather threat is overall decreasing. Collaboration with SPC this morning resulted in a modest downgrade to the day 1 outlook; this collaboration will continue.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Warm overnight period with temperatures still in the 70s for many parts of the CWA with a pre-frontal trough that is currently moving through the area with elevated showers. As of 4 AM EDT no lightning was observed. The main cold front is still over northwestern IL and moving eastward however the main energy has been pushing northeastward into eastern WI and over the middle of Lake Michigan into northern/central MI. Latest high resolution guidance suggests this will continue and our CWA may end up with scattered showers and thunderstorms around 8 AM EDT for our western half of the CWA with the activity pushing eastward out of the area by 1 PM EDT. A strong storm would be possible out of these storms but looking less likely due to the poor diurnal timing. The biggest impact for most areas will be the gusty southwest winds ahead of the fropa. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible.

However, for areas east and southeast of I-69 around 3 PM EDT we will get a resurgence of storms moving northeastward along the front. Forecasted parameters in this area for this afternoon indicates SB CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, Mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 deg/km, Bulk Shear Values of 35-45 kts, and helicity values less than 100 m2/s2. These parameters would allow for a few strong to severe storms to develop. Main threats would be damaging gusty winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two would still be possible with these storms but with the lower helicity values the threat is lowered. Heavy downpours with localized nuisance flooding is possible with the thunderstorms. Highs today upper 70s to lower 80s however the cloud cover could keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than otherwise. In the wake of the cold front we will see lows tonight in the lower 40s to upper 30s along the southern MI border. Winds should remain breezy and keep frost at bay for the coldest locations in our northern areas. Will need to take another gander at that with this afternoons package.

A break in precipitation on Wednesday morning before a warm front pushes back northward into the area ahead of a southern stream trough that will push northeastward from the Four-Corners into the Ohio River Valley while a northern stream trough out of southern Canada will drop southward into the Great Lakes region in its wake. These troughs will keep chances for showers and even periods of mainly afternoon thunderstorms over the area through the end of the week. Highs on Wednesday will get only into the mid 60s. A brief influx of warmer air will arrive on Thursday as the northern trough approaches the area. This will allow slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday with highs in the 70s. Slightly cooler near the lake. Then a cooling trend returns with high temperatures on Friday in the upper 50s to mid 60s and then cooler yet on Saturday with highs only in the 50s across the area. Coldest lows on Saturday morning with temperatures dropping into the low 40s to upper 30s. Will need to keep an eye on the frost potential for Saturday morning.

High amplitude Omega block ridge looks to develop over the Great Lakes region which should bring a return to dry weather with warmer temperatures into the middle of next week at least.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 748 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Remnant showers and thunderstorms from old convective vort max continue to track across central Indiana this morning. Elevated moisture return in advance of this feature has been sufficient to realize elevated instability and scattered thunderstorms.
There is a low end potential some thunder could reach as far north as KFWA by mid-late morning but confidence in this scenario is low. The main question this afternoon is potential redevelopment along sfc cold front. Some concern that instability may be somewhat affected by lingering clouds/precip lifting northeast out central Indiana. The potential still appears to be in place in narrow temporal window from 18Z-21Z at KFWA and have included PROB30 mention. Chances of thunder should diminish after 22Z. Otherwise, it will be windy today with southerly gusts of 25 to 30 knots at times. Winds diminish early this evening.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.