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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1045 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain, mainly in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 45 degrees and at michigan city is 45 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 021051 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 551 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 313 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Light rain exits the area this morning but additional rain is expected late tonight into Sunday. Highs will remain in the 40s with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Additional rain is then expected late Monday night into Tuesday. Some brief snow may mix in at the onset but no accumulation is expected at this time.

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 313 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Weak shortwave embedded within fast, southwesterly mid/upper level flow responsible for current areas of light rain and drizzle will exit to the NE later this morning. Subtle 285K isentropic upglide will be replaced by minor isentropic descent by 12Z as subtle midlevel shortwave ridging/subsidence develops. This will likely bring an end to precip by midmorning. Widespread stratus will remain through the day however given ample moisture trapped under strengthening inversion. Visibilities will continue to improve but low sun angle/limit mixing under overcast stratus and limited dry air advection suggest some BR will likely linger through the morning. Only a few, transient dense fog obs currently with improvement in our S/SE so will just continue with an SPS as necessary through the early morning. This environment will also prevent much change in temps over the next 24 hours. Highs today will not be much different than current values in the 40s.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Next, more potent shortwave then lifts through the region late tonight into Sunday with an increasing negative tilt. At least our NW CWA will get clipped by left exit region of 175+ kt upper jet streak with healthy PV advection (1.5 PVU surface down to 500mb) directly over our area. Initial 1005mb surface low passes just to our northwest but secondary surface cyclogenesis develops over the eastern Great Lakes later Sunday. Forecast soundings also show ample moisture with PW values above 0.5 inches and a period of some decent lapse rates above 850mb (not enough to support thunder but enough reduced stability to aid response to good forcing). All of this supports another round of widespread rain early Sun. Amounts will be generally light given fast-moving nature of this system but areas north of US-24, particularly NW IN/SW MI, could see up to a half inch. Precip types will remain entirely liquid with temps holding in the 40s.

Brief respite from precip anticipated in our area late Sun night into Monday but overall dreary weather pattern will continue well into next week with multiple shortwaves maintaining cool, moist, cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes. Monday's shortwave is expected to pass just to our south. Ensemble-heavy NBM maintains dry conditions but it is worth noting the 00Z deterministic GFS does clip our SE CWA with some light rain midday Mon and have therefore retained some of previous slight chance PoP's in that area. We will see some weak CAA behind this trough on Mon which will become important for the next system much more likely to provide precip late Mon night into Tue. Once again our CWA is favorably aligned for some healthy left exit upper jet dynamics with a deep midlevel trough and CVA. Most ensemble guidance indicates at least some light precip in our area from roughly 09-21Z Tue with the primary wave followed by some light, lake-enhanced precip potentially lingering into Wed. Wet-bulb temps early in the event Tue morning may be just cold enough for some brief snow to mix in at the onset. Not expecting any accumulation though given warm/wet ground and very marginal boundary layer temps. All rain is expected after sunrise as temps warm back into the 40s. Some potential for brief, light lake effect precip Tue night into Wed morning but confidence is very low at this point. Second half of the week appears relatively quiet with a steady warming trend. Next longwave trough approaches by the end of next weekend with at least a brief period of much warmer conditions immediately ahead of it.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

The surface low that was southwest of the region yesterday morning has just moved northeast out of northern Indiana allowing a cold front to move southeast. FWA was able to briefly enter the warm sector with very temporary improved conditions. The latest mesonet obs and a fine line on the radar indicated the front had already moved southeast of Columbia City and was taking aim on FWA. The front will continue its trek southeast and will move over the FWA terminal. VLIFR/LIFR conditions should immediately fill back in. The conditions will be very slow to improve. Fuel alternate conditions are highly likely to persist through the TAF period. Winds will briefly shift to the northwest as the low departs, but then become east ahead of the next approaching low pressure area. Rain should reach the SBN terminal before 12Z.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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Northern Indiana, IN,