Estral Beach, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estral Beach, MI

June 21, 2024 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 8:33 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0025.000000t0000z-240620t2300z/ 642 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
the Thunderstorm has weakened and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4189 8337 4195 8337 4196 8328 4202 8327 4205 8325 4204 8315 4203 8315 4199 8312 4196 8311 4196 8312 4184 8327 time - .mot - .loc 2241z 298deg 15kt 4191 8322

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 211440 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and late Saturday afternoon/evening, with damaging winds being the main hazard.

- Hot and humid through Saturday. High temperatures 85-90 today and 90-95 on Saturday, as heat indices peak out just under 100 degrees for Saturday.

UPDATE

Forecast message still largely unchanged from prior discussion with only some minor adjustments this morning owing to the SPC update expanding marginal risk north into the Saginaw Valley area. Humid airmass remains firmly in place with 12Z KDTX RAOB showing 1.72" of PW as well as ~900 J/kg of MUCAPE residing above the near-surface nocturnal inversion. CAM guidance continues to advertise surface based capes increasing to between 1000-1800 J/kg by this afternoon supporting scattered convective development across the bulk of the CWA Shear is lacking (aob 25kts) limiting potential organization though given the moisture availability, isolated strong downbursts similar to the past few days will again be possible. Activity wanes into the late evening period (by roughly 03Z) with the loss of diurnal heating/instability in addition to remnant shortwave energy finally fully pushing east of the area.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

AVIATION...

A wide range of conditions are in place to start the day across Lower MI governed primarily by warm and humid air still in place north of a front stalled near the Ohio border. Patchy MVFR low clouds and fog in the mbS area hold north of FNT during the morning leaving VFR under scattered high clouds toward DTW. A stray shower or rumble of thunder remain possible this morning until greater coverage develops with daytime peak instability this afternoon. Much like the last few days, the terminal corridor has about equal potential for storms with a lean toward PTK and DTW, closer to the surface front and lake breeze convergence zones serving as a focus for initiation. The front starts a northward move tonight with a few more showers or storms possible along and north of the boundary but off peak intensity after the loss of daytime instability. Rainfall shifts into northern Lower MI by sunrise Saturday leaving VFR for the morning after some light fog or haze around sunrise.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Conditions remain favorable for thunderstorms with mid afternoon to mid evening timing centered on peak daytime instability. The combination of Erie/St Clair lake breeze and the front stalled near the Ohio border serve as a location focus until the front moves north of D21 later tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms impacting the airspace this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

DISCUSSION...

Moist airmass in place, as the 00z DTX raob indicated a PW value of 1.78 inches with a 700 mb dew pt of 5 C. Similar moisture profiles to hold through the day.

Last vestiges some shortwave energy/PV tracking through southeast Michigan this morning (slight-low chance pops), with negative upper level PV advection in the 18-00z window. Despite the unfavorable environment/general subsidence late this afternoon, ill defined leftover frontal boundary and diurnal instability (MLcapes of 1500 J/kg) still will likely prove worthy to fire up convection (bulk of CAM solutions), but limited coverage (25-40%) expected. The normally bullish NAM is actually indicating instability parameters a bit lower compared to the past couple of days, but still potential for isolated downburst damaging wind gusts, despite little in the way of 0-6 mb bulk shear (under 25 knots for majority of the CWA). Locations south of I-69 stand the best chance with the greater cape build-up south of the front. 850 mb temps of 17-19 C suggest airmass potential in the upper 80s to lower 90s. But assuming clouds and scattered convection develops, likely looking at temps in the 85-90 degree range, in line with inherited forecast.

Warm (10+ C at 700 mb) and dry mid level dry slot pushes into southern Lower Michigan this evening/around midnight, and hangs around through a good portion of Saturday, likely capping activity (south of I-69) and allowing for a warm and humid day with deep southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range appear likely as 850 mb temps reach aoa 20 C, but mainly sub 70 degree dew pts expected to keep heat indices just under 100 degrees.

Good 500 mb height falls (for summer standards) arrive around 00z Sunday, which will weaken the cap and and potentially allow storms to spread in late in the day or during Saturday evening. Increasing 0-6 KM bulk shear, reaching 30-40 knots by day's end will bring the potential of isolated severe storms with MLcapes at least around 1000 J/kg. SPC day 2 outlook puts southeast Michigan in marginal risk. It should be pointed out, several model solutions (NAM/RAP)
suggest shower and thunderstorm activity holds off mostly until Saturday night, which limits severe potential with leftover MUcapes mainly under 1000 J/kg. Despite the unfavorable timing, the large scale forcing is expected to support a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms.

Modest cold advection to follow for Sunday, with 850 mb temps now only progged to lower into the lower teens by Monday morning per 00z Euro (vs 10 C indicated by 12z Euro). None-the-less, the 500 mb trough axis swinging through the Central Great Lakes may still touch off a few showers over the Thumb region as 500 mb cold pool (-15 C)
tracks through Lake Huron.

MARINE...

High pressures to the north and south of the Great Lakes result in weak northerly flow across much of the region today. There remains a weak stalled boundary across the southern Lakes which may try to be a focus for strong storms once again today. Additional storms look to track out of WI and across Mid MI into Lake Huron later today.
Mild air remains across the region resulting in stable conditions across the waters minimizing wave heights into the weekend. Though winds should remain generally light and out of the north, any location in the vicinity of a stronger storm will have higher gusts potential with it. A more organized low pressure system will pass through the northern Lakes Saturday night pulling a cold front through the region on Sunday likely resulting in more widespread convection and wind speeds then could reach or exceed 25 knots with waves building to around 4 feet. Small craft advisories may be needed.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and moderately unstable airmass holds in place today.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop once again, capable of producing highly localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches in less than 3 hours due to the slow movement.
This amount of rain would result in urban/low lying flooding.

The daytime hours of Saturday look to be mostly dry before a line of showers and thunderstorms track through southeast Michigan Saturday evening/night. This activity will have potential to produce half an inch to one inch of rain, especially if activity arrives in the evening. Stronger thunderstorms will bring the potential for locally higher amounts.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi31 minE 7G8 75°F 30.1971°F
45165 23 mi21 minENE 7.8G7.8 77°F 81°F1 ft
45200 23 mi51 min7.8G9.7 77°F 80°F30.1973°F
TWCO1 23 mi42 min8G9.9 76°F 78°F73°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi43 minENE 2.9G5.1 84°F 30.1576°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi31 minENE 1.9G5.1 78°F 30.19
CMPO1 34 mi61 minENE 5.1G6 77°F
45201 35 mi41 min3.9G7.8 76°F 79°F1 ft30.2472°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi31 minSSE 8G8 75°F 30.21
45202 36 mi31 min3.9G3.9 78°F 80°F1 ft30.1973°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi43 minE 5.1G5.1 77°F 77°F30.1867°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi31 minE 3.9G3.9 74°F 76°F30.2071°F


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 6 sm15 minNE 0510 smClear86°F66°F52%30.20
KTTF CUSTER,MI 15 sm15 minENE 0710 smPartly Cloudy86°F73°F66%30.19
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI 17 sm37 minvar 0310 smMostly Cloudy82°F72°F70%30.21
CYQG WINDSOR,CN 21 sm30 minE 049 smMostly Cloudy81°F70°F70%30.21
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Detroit, MI,




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