Estral Beach, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estral Beach, MI


November 28, 2023 4:47 AM EST (09:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:36AM   Sunset 5:04PM   Moonrise  5:50PM   Moonset 9:14AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      Help
LCZ423 851 Pm Edt Wed Sep 6 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie...
at 848 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 8 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to near luna pier, moving northeast at 20 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, woodland beach, and detroit beach around 855 pm edt. Stony point around 900 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor, estral beach, and gibraltar around 910 pm edt. Detroit river light around 915 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina and wyandotte around 920 pm edt. Grosse ile around 925 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these storms reach the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive.
&&
lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8294 4235 8293 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map

Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 280850 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION

High amplitude troughing in residence today, lending to a period of deeper layer northwest flow that ensures another day of well below average temperatures. 850 mb temperatures projected to bottom out in the -16c range early day, with little recovery through the heating cycle. This will support highs mainly in the upper 20s. Standard diurnal uptick in gustiness to around 25 mph. Some early day single digit wind chill readings peaking in the teens this afternoon.
Backing low level flow with time will draw the southern lake Michigan moisture plume back across the area through the day.
Moisture depth lacks at this stage to suggest a more organized response, but pockets of light snow showers or flurries remain plausible given a moist layer still fixated within the dgz.
Potential for some minor accumulation focused over the thumb and northern Saginaw valley region as ongoing lake moisture flux off northern lake Huron may allow a few streamers to survive the downstream trek into the area.

Pattern of warm air advection will emerge tonight immediately downstream of a low amplitude wave on pace to traverse the northern great lakes late tonight and early Wednesday. Brief period of meaningful forced ascent via a combination of moist isentropic ascent and dcva set to accompany this height fall center across northern and central lower Mi. Forecast trajectory will position areas generally along/north of the I-69 corridor favorably to witness a brief period of light snow development. Main window centered between 09z and 15z Wednesday morning. Accumulation potential capped at half inch or less given limited residence time and overall intensity. Advective process struggles to gain greater traction Wednesday amidst the ongoing height falls and lack of greater depth to southwest winds. Temperatures still solidly below average.

Increasing southwest flow within the background of building large scale upper heights will translate into greater warming through the column Thursday. This occurs as attention turns to both a northern stream wave shearing across the northern great lakes and a deeper southern stream wave ejecting into the southern plains. The former will effectively draw an attendant cold front into lower Michigan sometime late Thursday into Thursday night. Moisture quality will initially remain modest along the advancing frontal slope, but improving northward moisture transport downstream of the southern feature may eventually intersect the boundary and offer some rain potential by Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably for Friday, as the model solution space works to resolve trajectory and magnitude of the system ejecting out of the plains as it relates to positioning of the frontal zone. This offers some difference yet in projected moisture quality, thermal profile and placement of the greatest ascent. Outgoing forecast will maintain a predominant rain precipitation type at this stage, acknowledging there remains a subset of the ensemble solution space that carries a colder scenario with snow/mix as a ptype and some solutions that hold the bulk of the precipitation to the south.

MARINE

Wind direction shifts to the northwest this morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air works in from the north. This maintains the gusty conditions over the central Great Lakes with scattered to numerous snow showers. Probability for gales remains low today, but gusts to 25 to 30 knots can be expected especially over central and southern Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters through this afternoon. Winds taper off slightly from late afternoon into the evening leaving relatively quieter conditions tonight ahead of a clipper system set to track in on Wednesday. A strong low-level jet will precede this system with gusty southwest winds strengthening to around 25 to 30 knots for a brief period Wednesday morning. Saginaw Bay stands a chance to see an hour or so of gusts to 35 knot gales, but will forego a watch at this stage due to the expected brevity of any such gusts. Milder air works in later Wednesday with southwest winds remaining gusty to 20 to 25 knots. This pattern holds through Thursday before the next cold front moves through Thursday night, shifting winds back to the northwest for the late week.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1214 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

AVIATION...

The single band of lake effect snow has been weakening the past hour in response to the deep trough axis swinging through Southeast Michigan. The band will continue to weaken as it slowly pushes southward. Uncertainty exists late tonight with regards to how much clearing will push southward into the region. Will maintain a more pessimistic ceiling forecast given continued cyclonic flow with trajectories off of the western Great Lakes.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet. Some breaks possible overnight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ442-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ444.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TWCO1 23 mi38 min NW 22G28 24°F 19°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi54 min W 7G14 22°F 29.9517°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi48 min W 23G26 23°F 29.99
CMPO1 34 mi78 min W 15G19 22°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi48 min W 5.1G12 23°F 29.97
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi54 min W 8.9G14 22°F 43°F29.9414°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi38 min WNW 21G27 26°F 45°F29.9626°F

toggle option: (graph/table)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 6 sm12 minWNW 0710 smOvercast23°F18°F79%29.97
KTTF CUSTER,MI 15 sm12 minW 0710 smOvercast23°F18°F79%29.99
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI 17 sm54 minWNW 1110 smOvercast21°F16°F79%29.97
CYQG WINDSOR,CN 21 sm47 minW 10G159 smOvercast23°F14°F68%29.95

Wind History from ONZ
(wind in knots)



Tide / Current for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help


Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help


GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
EDIT

Detroit, MI,



NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE