Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estral Beach, MI

DISCUSSION

A moist airmass remains in place with surface dew points predominantly in the lower 60s. The primary moisture axis, characterized by a Theta-E ridge and Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches, will slide east into the Eastern Great Lakes this morning as the leading Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) passes through.

A shortwave and its associated surface low moving out of Iowa will track through central Lower Michigan today. This setup will support showers driven by deformation and low-level convergence near the surface low. Mid-level wind fields remain strong, with 45 to 55 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear noted over Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Surface CAPE is projected to reach 500 to 1000 J/kg with daytime heating; however, if showers are less prevalent and partial sunshine develops, instability could exceed these values.

Consequently, an isolated severe threat is warranted, with marginal wind and hail being the primary concerns. With the surface low positioned over the northern half of the area this afternoon, there may be sufficient 0-1 km bulk shear (~20 knots) to support a tornado threat if instability increases beyond expectations, but chances look less than 2 percent.

The Flood Watch continues, as storms will be efficient rain producers. With PW values remaining around 1.0 inch and soil already saturated, it will not take much additional rainfall to cause flooding issues.

Much-needed dry weather arrives for Friday as ridging builds at all levels. This brief reprieve comes ahead of a potent next system that is expected to bring significant changes to the regional weather pattern.

Saturday: Latest water vapor imagery highlights a large and potent upper-level low currently over the Pacific Northwest. The base of this trough will extend south into the Southern Plains late Friday, with the primary surface low tracking through the Western Great Lakes and into Northern Ontario by Saturday morning. This trajectory will allow a cold front to sweep through Southeast Michigan by early Saturday afternoon, which should effectively limit the severe weather threat and taper off showers as surface ridging builds in behind it.

There is currently excellent model consensus (NAM, Canadian, Euro, and UKMET) regarding this frontal timing. Only a few Euro ensemble members are suggesting the development of a secondary low, which would be the only scenario that slows the frontal passage.

Strong cold advection will lead to a chilly Sunday. Temperatures at the 850 mb level are projected to bottom out at or below -10°C by Sunday evening, which will keep surface high temperatures struggling to even exit the 40s during the day. Steep low-level lapse rates will also support isolated to potentially scattered rain or melting snow showers through Sunday afternoon. As skies clear and winds diminish Sunday night, temperatures are expected to dip into the 20s.
Consequently, a Freeze Warning will likely be required for the region.

MARINE

A trough moves into the area today maintaining periodic rounds of showers/storms with an isolated storm mainly over the southern Great Lakes having the potentially to be severe. System peels away from the region late tonight ushering in a brief period of high pressure Friday bringing lighter winds and dry conditions. Broad low pressure tracking through northern Ontario will then drag a respectable cold front through the Great Lakes daytime Saturday generating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have the potential to be severe. Moderate to strong cold advection follows for Sunday with northwest winds peaking in the lower 30 knots. While a couple gusts near gales are possible, overall potential remains low (<30%).

HYDROLOGY

Given antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet spring, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan through this evening. Significant rises are expected on regional waterways, with the Tittabawassee, Saginaw, Cass, and Shiawassee Rivers forecast reach/exceed flood stage.

Showers today, with embedded thunderstorms, will lead to localized heavy downpours. While most locations will receive less than 1 inch of rain, the primary concern is thunderstorm training (multiple storms moving over the same area). This could lead to much higher rainfall totals and a heightened risk for significant flooding.
Confidence in the exact placement of these heavier rain corridors remains low, but the overall environment remains conducive to efficient rainfall rates.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

AVIATION...

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the Tri-Cities with scattered coverage along a line moving across central lower Michigan. Focus for this activity will continue until about 09-10Z. Enough lightning activity is associated with the scattered activity so have gone with TEMPO groups with this TAF issuance. Anticipate that much of this activity will be weakening with time as it approaches the terminal corridor later tonight. Will have a low potential to see a brief period of MVFR conditions with any thunderstorm. Another chance for scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms develops again during the early afternoon.
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorm activity through today. The southwest to west winds will be turning northerly towards the evening as frontal boundary settles southward and brings at least some scattered low cloud potential.

DTW/D21 Convection... Scattered convection moving across central Lower Michigan will move towards DTW closer to the 07Z to 09Z window presenting a chance at a brief thunderstorm. Activity appears like it will be weakening as it approaches. Severe threat appears low.
Another period of thunderstorm potential remains worthy of a PROB30 for the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft after 06Z tonight.

* Low for thunderstorm tonight. Low to medium this afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063- 068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.