Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estral Beach, MI

AVIATION

Another round of fog and low stratus affects the terminal corridor this morning, although with less consistent coverage and/or depth compared to Friday morning. This helps LIFR restriction improve more quickly and with a lower/shorter duration stratus component, depending on any late development off western Lake Erie into the DTW/PTK areas. Observations leading up to forecast issuance are optimistic but will be monitored through the morning.

Also similar to Friday is the dissipation of residual lower clouds by this afternoon. Model forecast soundings are very dry above the boundary layer which leaves clouds limited to bands of cirrus through the evening. A greater amount of opaque coverage toward mbS is a negative factor for more fog there late tonight. Both lower coverage of cirrus and a light south wind are more constructive for fog toward DTW by Sunday morning.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM early this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

Fog again developed overnight but not as widespread as last night due to the southeasterly winds keeping the bulk of the Lake Huron moisture out of the picture. Better moisture advection off Lake Erie tonight still resulted in dense fog downwind of the lake. Additional fog did develop across parts of the Thumb but more of the radiational variety as temps fell into the mid 30s which was enough with the elevated dewpoints from residual lake moisture. So a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect again this morning for two areas, the Thumb and near the Ohio border. Fog should start mixing out around 12-14Z again like the past two days.

Today will once again feature high pressure at the surface, which is now centered over New England. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge axis will pass over the area today pulling the thermal ridge closer to the area helping to increase highs a degree or two over yesterday, which will carry into Sunday where highs may then reach 70 across much of the area. Persistence forecasting with the high still holding on over the region this time of year suggests we could deal with another night of fog but conditions are not as favorable with warmer temps overnight and some high cloud starting to stream in.

Longwave pattern then starts to break down to end the weekend with base of the west coast trough cutting off and then lifting northeast through the Plains through the start of the new week. This occurs while a strong upper low tracks east across Canada helping to flatten the ridge across the Great Lakes. A cold front drops through the state Monday which will bring cooler temps back briefly mid week but a new wave coming ashore the Pacific NW looks to then reinforce the west coast trough and in turn bulge the central conus ridge back into the area bringing the warm air back. The overall pattern does remain flatter though with several mid level waves rippling through it after mid week which will bring some rain chances back to the area.

MARINE...

Controlling high pressure centers over New England today offering light southerly winds. Speeds gradually tick upwards over the weekend as the surface ridge maintains control from the east and the surface pressure gradient constricts. An approaching cold front could briefly stall out over The Straits on Sunday, which would conclude a prolonged streak of dry weather. Confidence remains low for rainfall with this boundary, before it weakens and traverses the rest of the basin Sunday night into Monday. A post-frontal northerly wind shift ensues, followed by a few additional opportunities for some stray showers next week. Several waves of low pressure are expected to track northeast from The Plains through the Upper Midwest Monday through Wednesday. Winds and waves should remain below headline criteria through this period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047-048-053- 054-062-075-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.