DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across parts of northeast Iowa, thanks to an abundance of low level moisture in place. So far fog has been slow to develop this morning, however with moisture in place this remains possible. As the earlier aviation discussion indicated, LLJ interactions may inhibit further development.
Localized patchy fog, especially in low lying areas, remains possible through the early morning hours.

Temperatures begin to creep up today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, feeling even more muggy as dewpoints hang out around 70 degrees. Meanwhile, a remnant low out of the gulf region has been lifting north slowly and is expected to reach the area by later this evening. CAM guidance indicates that most impacts will remain east of the area, however a stray shower is certainly possible in southern and eastern portions of the area this evening. With little flow to speak of, expect a repeat of the past several nights with slow moving pop-up type showers/t-storms should anything develop in the area.

A stray shower may linger into Sunday in the east on another muggy day. A change is on the way though as a shortwave reaches the area Sunday evening, interacting with the remnant system in eastern Iowa overnight and into Monday. The wave brings shear to our ripe unstable environment, and while modest, this may be enough to sustain more robust storms. SPC has continued with a marginal risk of severe storms Sunday and Monday which is reasonable as this wave passes across the area.

The ridge quickly recovers behind this shortwave and send temperatures this week into the steamy category. Highs in the low 90s with heat indicies exceeding 100 are likely in central to southern Iowa. While much of the week will be hot, warmest day look to be Tuesday and Wednesday when a majority of ensemble members indicate chances for a heat index over 100 in southern to central Iowa. Temperatures remain hot to finish the week but may be tamped back as waves ride over the ridge and pass across the area, helping to push it south. At this range details of this convection are inconsistent, however Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the window for this next round of storms across Iowa.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Patchy fog with low stratus is impacting KMCW early this morning but is expected to quickly diminishing. Then, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the period. Winds will become breezy out of the south today, gusting near 20 kts at KMCW/KALO.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.