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FXUS63 KDMX 022345 AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 545 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion

DISCUSSION
/Tonight through Saturday/ Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

-Light rain/snow southeast tonight, minor snow accumulation possible.
-Another system affects southern Iowa late Sunday afternoon into the evening with light precipitation.
-Breezy into early next week with warming conditions by later in the week.

Low stratus remains widespread this afternoon in most areas except portions of northwest and north central Iowa. Weak warm advection is ongoing ahead of an approaching shortwave with light southeast surface flow across the state. Returns on radar have remained somewhat steady across central into eastern Nebraska this afternoon associated with the shortwave and mid level forcing.
However, a narrow ribbon of moisture is streaming north ahead of the wave with echoes in eastern Kansas recently expanding. While much of this has been virga, the continued lift and saturation is expected to lead to an expanding area of light rain late this afternoon into the evening. This precipitation continues to expand into eastern Iowa overnight in an area of decent isentropic lift with light to moderate precipitation. Soundings in this environment during the evening across the southeast are all below freezing except for the bottom 500-1000 feet. Therefore, a mixture of rain and snow seems plausible with some transition to all snow from time to time. It appears the bulk of precipitation in the southeast will be this evening with the stronger moisture advection. Lingering precipitation after midnight will be lighter and gradually pulling east of the area. It appears the best threat of measurable snow remains east of the area overnight, however a quick inch may occur in the far southeast this evening should precipitation rates become high enough to transition all rain to snow for a brief period this evening. Farther west, some light snow/flurries remain possible with the mid level forcing into tonight as well but with relatively little impact. The weak warm advection overnight and cool ground may lead to some fog development toward daybreak in many areas and this will need to be monitored into this evening.

Precipitation ends around daybreak on Sunday along low clouds are likely to linger in the light flow across the state. Another shortwave approaches late in the afternoon into the evening with robust forcing across the south. Overall moisture is relatively limited, however the decent forcing should provide sufficient saturation for light rain/snow into the afternoon/evening in southern Iowa. Some of the short term guidance is suggesting a band of heavier precipitation across the south during the evening and this will need to be monitored for a band of heavier rain/snow and some potential accumulation.

The final shortwave in this trifecta of system approaches from the northwest later Monday into Monday evening. Some light rain/snow is possible with this system although the best forcing remains north and east of the state along with the best chances for measurable precipitation. Stronger northwest winds are forecast behind this system into Tuesday. Thereafter, warmer air builds into the Midwest with during the later half of the work week with precipitation chances holding off until next weekend.

AVIATION
/For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/ Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

MVFR ceilings across the area with light rain and snow expanding across the area. Most precipitation expected southeast with impacts to KOTM, with less confidence in impacts towards KALO and KDSM. Later into the evening expect to see fog develop while ceilings drop to IFR or perhaps LIFR in a few pockets. Improvement will begin through the morning with a return to VFR after 18z at most sites.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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Des Moines, IA,