NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
10 PM update...

Cold front moving through SE MA at 10 pm with narrow line of enhanced showers and brief 30+ mph NW gusts accompanying the front. Front will cross Cape Cod 03-05z and ACK by 06z. A few brief post-frontal showers may impact western MA/CT during the next hour, otherwise rapid drying in the column will promote clearing skies overnight. Cooling temps behind the front with lows dropping into the mid-upper 40s interior and low-mid 50s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
A good deal of dry air filters in behind the front keeping skies clear even as the upper low lift out of NY/northern New England into Canada. It will be breezy thanks to a tighter pressure gradient with west winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 kts in some locations. Highs only reach into the 60s and low 70s. Winds diminish a bit overnight as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and low 50s going into the second week of September.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Very quiet period of weather in the extended forecast, with the only noteworthy aspect being temperatures 10 degrees above normal by the end of the week. After a couple of seasonable days on Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will begin to rise to above normal levels as a large area of surface high pressure builds over the eastern US. The center of the surface high is expected to be positioned well south of southern New England which will allow for south/southwesterly flow to advect an anomalously warm air mass over The NOrtheast for much of next week. By Wednesday 925 hPa temps reach 17 to 18 Celsius which will support surface temperatures in the low 70s. Warm advection continues into Thursday and Friday with 925 hPa temps climbing close to 20 Celsius, supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s. This would be consistent with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal for mid-September in southern New England. The presence of high pressure should support mainly sunny weather next week with very little chance for precipitation at this time. Warm/dry weather looks to continue into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z...

Patchy IFR stratus across the interior high terrain and outer Cape/ACK through 07-08z, otherwise VFR.

Today through Monday...High confidence.

VFR. W-NW wind 10-20 kt today with a few G25 kt across the interior. W winds diminish tonight then W-SW wind 10-20 kt Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday night...High confidence.

Easterly swell from offshore storm peaks today with 6-9 ft seas over eastern waters and 5-7 ft over southern waters. Seas will gradually subside tonight into Sunday with seas falling below 5 ft on Sunday.
N winds this morning will shift to S this afternoon, then post- frontal NW winds will increase to 15-20 kt late tonight into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing in the afternoon and overnight. Low risk for a few 25 kt gusts tonight behind the cold front.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ251.