Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duxbury, MA
December 7, 2023 8:39 AM EST (13:39 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM Sunset 4:13PM Moonrise 2:12AM Moonset 2:10PM
ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 701 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night and Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat and Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night and Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 701 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters sometime Sun into Mon.
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters sometime Sun into Mon.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBOX 071125 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 625 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure maintains dry weather late this week into early this weekend with temperatures rising to above normal levels. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of steady rain, gusty southerly winds and potential for coastal flooding along the southern coastlines later Sunday night and into early on Monday. Turning drier by Monday afternoon with a brief shot of colder air for Monday night, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Continuing to monitor extent of clouds anchored around the Berkshires. There was a decreasing trend for these clouds, but it was very slow. Also watching ocean effect clouds impacting parts of the South Shore, Cape and islands. These clouds should linger a while longer, really as long as winds stay out of the N. Expecting winds to become more NW early this morning, so eventually even these clouds should dissipate to a larger extent.
High pressure to our west will be our main weather feature today. The rather cold start to the day will carry over into below normal temperatures through today as well. Since this high pressure is not directly overhead, and on the weaker side of the spectrum, a passing mid level shortwave should mean increasing clouds during the daylight hours, which then start to dissipate with sunset, especially across interior southern New England.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
High pressure should be more overhead tonight, before moving offshore Friday. Dry weather continues trough Friday. Clearing skies tonight and light west winds result in better radiational cooling conditions, with below normal temperatures continuing.
More sunshine and winds shifting to the south Friday expected to lead to a return to near normal temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Updated: 3:20AM
* Quiet, mild, and dry weather Friday night through the first-half of Sunday. Afternoon highs could approach 60 degrees Sunday ahead of a robust weather system.
* Potentially a multi-hazardous weather system late Sunday night into Monday could bring strong winds, soaking rains, coastal flooding and erosion, in addition to dangerous marine conditions.
* Quieter and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
Friday Night through Saturday Night:
No significant adjustments to this part of the forecast. High pressure anchored to the south and mid-level ridging aloft allows for a tranquil conditions. Friday night into Saturday morning temperatures range between the upper-20s and lower-30s. Clear skies early Saturday gives way to increasing clouds due to WAA bringing higher PWATs/moisture to SNE. That said, Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night remain dry. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday reach into upper-40s and low-50s. As for the overnight temperatures those range between the mid-30s to low-40s. Winds are S/SSE less than 10 mph.
Sunday through Monday:
A rather robust system could bring multiple hazards late Sunday night through Monday. As we have been advertising, there remains potential for the following, strong wind gusts, dangerous marine conditions, heavy rainfall, and event he possibility of coastal flooding and beach erosion. First, let us break down the latest 00z guidance.
The latest deterministic guidance suggests the mid-level trough is in more of a neutral state versus a negative tilt. But what does this mean? Negative tilted trough, oriented SE-NW, suggest a signal for potential intensification of the system. Now a neutral state or no tilt to the mid-level trough would suggest a lesser chance of intensification. Given there is still 4-5 days between this forecast and the arrival, there is pounds of time for changes. And there has been a slower trend for the onset of precipitation, will discuss that more in a moment. Otherwise, guidance trends remain in fairly good agreement.
Winds - Feel a bit like a broken record, but there is building confidence a strong wind event could impact southern New England late Sunday night into early Monday. Deterministic guidance remains consistent with a strong LLJ crossing southern New England with winds aloft at 925mb ranging between 70 to 85 knots. How much will make it to the surface will remain the big question. ECMWF ensembles have a greater than 70 percent probability for wind gusts to exceed 50 knots over the islands and Cape Cod. And a low probability of 10 to 20 percent of gusts exceeding 64 knots across the same area. A bit closer to the I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence these probabilites do drop off. The are high probabilites, greater than 80 percent, gusts could exceed 34 knots. Then probabilities between 30 to 40 percent for gusts to exceed 50 knots. There are still other variables like a temperature inversion above the surface and does that limit the amount of wind mixing to the surface. We will continue to monitor and post wind-related headlines as confidence grows.
Rain - Onset for rain has shifted later into Sunday, likely after sunset rain arrives from west to east. As for how much rain, still too soon to tell, but the global ensembles continue to signal for soaking rains. ECMWF is the wetter solution with probabilites between 70 and 90 percent across most of the CWA. GFS has a bit of a tighter gradient in their probabilites of an inch, west of Worcester, 80 to 90 percent, lower probabilites of 30 to 50 percent Boston to Providence. WPC continues to keep parts of the CWA under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. As mentioned before the amount of leaf debris may allow for poor drainage flooding.
Marine - Waters off southern New England are squished between two pressure system, an approaching low to the west and high pressure to the east. Gales to storm force winds possible along with large seas across the waters, with more of a focus on the southern waters that could linger well into Monday night.
Coastal Issues - There remains the possibility of beach erosion due to large waves crashing onto area beaches and coastal flooding. For what it is worth, the Steven's Institute shows the potential for flooding at the top of Narragansett Bay at Providence. There still remains a widespread in the guidance, the 5th percentile keeping levels well below flood stage, while the 95th percentile would suggests a high-end minor flood event to low-end moderate flood event. This will all come down to if the max surge coincides with the high tide during the predawn hours of Monday.
In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs Sunday are in the mid-50s to 60 degrees. Behind the system temperature cool off rather quickly, highs Monday afternoon are low to middle-40s.
Tuesday and Wednesday:
A break from the active weather with drier and cooler conditions.
Highs are generally in the low to middle-40s, overnight temperatures are in the upper-20s.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z Update: No changes to current TAF, quiet weather for Thursday, VFR CIGs with some MVFR CIGS due to ocean effect clouds south of ACK. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
Today: High confidence.
VFR for most, although BKN/OVC MVFR bases at times at HYA/ACK this morning. NW winds around 5-10 kt becoming WNW, with occasional gusts 18-22 kt over the Cape and Islands.
Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.
VFR. WNW winds becoming W 5-10 kt, becoming light tonight. Winds turning light SW to S Friday afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. RA.
Monday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
Expecting winds and seas to diminish early this morning as high pressure moves overhead through tonight, then offshore Friday.
Thinking Small Craft Advisories may be able to be let go earlier than current timing. Otherwise, light winds and seas expected across the waters through Friday.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 625 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure maintains dry weather late this week into early this weekend with temperatures rising to above normal levels. A strong frontal system has the potential to bring a period of steady rain, gusty southerly winds and potential for coastal flooding along the southern coastlines later Sunday night and into early on Monday. Turning drier by Monday afternoon with a brief shot of colder air for Monday night, but temperatures look to rebound back closer to seasonable levels by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Continuing to monitor extent of clouds anchored around the Berkshires. There was a decreasing trend for these clouds, but it was very slow. Also watching ocean effect clouds impacting parts of the South Shore, Cape and islands. These clouds should linger a while longer, really as long as winds stay out of the N. Expecting winds to become more NW early this morning, so eventually even these clouds should dissipate to a larger extent.
High pressure to our west will be our main weather feature today. The rather cold start to the day will carry over into below normal temperatures through today as well. Since this high pressure is not directly overhead, and on the weaker side of the spectrum, a passing mid level shortwave should mean increasing clouds during the daylight hours, which then start to dissipate with sunset, especially across interior southern New England.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
High pressure should be more overhead tonight, before moving offshore Friday. Dry weather continues trough Friday. Clearing skies tonight and light west winds result in better radiational cooling conditions, with below normal temperatures continuing.
More sunshine and winds shifting to the south Friday expected to lead to a return to near normal temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Updated: 3:20AM
* Quiet, mild, and dry weather Friday night through the first-half of Sunday. Afternoon highs could approach 60 degrees Sunday ahead of a robust weather system.
* Potentially a multi-hazardous weather system late Sunday night into Monday could bring strong winds, soaking rains, coastal flooding and erosion, in addition to dangerous marine conditions.
* Quieter and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.
Friday Night through Saturday Night:
No significant adjustments to this part of the forecast. High pressure anchored to the south and mid-level ridging aloft allows for a tranquil conditions. Friday night into Saturday morning temperatures range between the upper-20s and lower-30s. Clear skies early Saturday gives way to increasing clouds due to WAA bringing higher PWATs/moisture to SNE. That said, Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night remain dry. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday reach into upper-40s and low-50s. As for the overnight temperatures those range between the mid-30s to low-40s. Winds are S/SSE less than 10 mph.
Sunday through Monday:
A rather robust system could bring multiple hazards late Sunday night through Monday. As we have been advertising, there remains potential for the following, strong wind gusts, dangerous marine conditions, heavy rainfall, and event he possibility of coastal flooding and beach erosion. First, let us break down the latest 00z guidance.
The latest deterministic guidance suggests the mid-level trough is in more of a neutral state versus a negative tilt. But what does this mean? Negative tilted trough, oriented SE-NW, suggest a signal for potential intensification of the system. Now a neutral state or no tilt to the mid-level trough would suggest a lesser chance of intensification. Given there is still 4-5 days between this forecast and the arrival, there is pounds of time for changes. And there has been a slower trend for the onset of precipitation, will discuss that more in a moment. Otherwise, guidance trends remain in fairly good agreement.
Winds - Feel a bit like a broken record, but there is building confidence a strong wind event could impact southern New England late Sunday night into early Monday. Deterministic guidance remains consistent with a strong LLJ crossing southern New England with winds aloft at 925mb ranging between 70 to 85 knots. How much will make it to the surface will remain the big question. ECMWF ensembles have a greater than 70 percent probability for wind gusts to exceed 50 knots over the islands and Cape Cod. And a low probability of 10 to 20 percent of gusts exceeding 64 knots across the same area. A bit closer to the I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence these probabilites do drop off. The are high probabilites, greater than 80 percent, gusts could exceed 34 knots. Then probabilities between 30 to 40 percent for gusts to exceed 50 knots. There are still other variables like a temperature inversion above the surface and does that limit the amount of wind mixing to the surface. We will continue to monitor and post wind-related headlines as confidence grows.
Rain - Onset for rain has shifted later into Sunday, likely after sunset rain arrives from west to east. As for how much rain, still too soon to tell, but the global ensembles continue to signal for soaking rains. ECMWF is the wetter solution with probabilites between 70 and 90 percent across most of the CWA. GFS has a bit of a tighter gradient in their probabilites of an inch, west of Worcester, 80 to 90 percent, lower probabilites of 30 to 50 percent Boston to Providence. WPC continues to keep parts of the CWA under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. As mentioned before the amount of leaf debris may allow for poor drainage flooding.
Marine - Waters off southern New England are squished between two pressure system, an approaching low to the west and high pressure to the east. Gales to storm force winds possible along with large seas across the waters, with more of a focus on the southern waters that could linger well into Monday night.
Coastal Issues - There remains the possibility of beach erosion due to large waves crashing onto area beaches and coastal flooding. For what it is worth, the Steven's Institute shows the potential for flooding at the top of Narragansett Bay at Providence. There still remains a widespread in the guidance, the 5th percentile keeping levels well below flood stage, while the 95th percentile would suggests a high-end minor flood event to low-end moderate flood event. This will all come down to if the max surge coincides with the high tide during the predawn hours of Monday.
In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs Sunday are in the mid-50s to 60 degrees. Behind the system temperature cool off rather quickly, highs Monday afternoon are low to middle-40s.
Tuesday and Wednesday:
A break from the active weather with drier and cooler conditions.
Highs are generally in the low to middle-40s, overnight temperatures are in the upper-20s.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z Update: No changes to current TAF, quiet weather for Thursday, VFR CIGs with some MVFR CIGS due to ocean effect clouds south of ACK. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
Today: High confidence.
VFR for most, although BKN/OVC MVFR bases at times at HYA/ACK this morning. NW winds around 5-10 kt becoming WNW, with occasional gusts 18-22 kt over the Cape and Islands.
Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.
VFR. WNW winds becoming W 5-10 kt, becoming light tonight. Winds turning light SW to S Friday afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. RA.
Monday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. RA likely.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
Expecting winds and seas to diminish early this morning as high pressure moves overhead through tonight, then offshore Friday.
Thinking Small Craft Advisories may be able to be let go earlier than current timing. Otherwise, light winds and seas expected across the waters through Friday.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.
Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGHG MARSHFIELD MUNI GEORGE HARLOW FIELD,MA | 4 sm | 25 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 23°F | 16°F | 74% | 30.01 | |
| KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA | 10 sm | 48 min | NW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 19°F | 16°F | 86% | 30.00 | |
| KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA | 22 sm | 48 min | calm | 9 sm | Clear | 21°F | 18°F | 86% | 30.01 | |
| KPVC PROVINCETOWN MUNI,MA | 24 sm | 18 min | NW 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 30°F | 21°F | 69% | 30.00 |
Wind History from GHG
(wind in knots)Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EST 1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST 8.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:56 PM EST 1.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:10 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:02 PM EST 8.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EST 1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST 8.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:56 PM EST 1.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:10 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:02 PM EST 8.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gurnet Point, Massachusetts, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 5.5 |
| 5 am |
| 7.2 |
| 6 am |
| 8.3 |
| 7 am |
| 8.5 |
| 8 am |
| 7.8 |
| 9 am |
| 6.6 |
| 10 am |
| 5.1 |
| 11 am |
| 3.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 6.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 7.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 8.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 7.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.7 |
Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST 3.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:06 AM EST -0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EST -3.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST 0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:00 PM EST 3.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST -0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:09 PM EST -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:18 PM EST 0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST 3.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:06 AM EST -0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EST -3.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST 0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:00 PM EST 3.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST -0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:09 PM EST -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:18 PM EST 0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.5 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| -2.6 |
| 7 am |
| -3.5 |
| 8 am |
| -3.7 |
| 9 am |
| -3.3 |
| 10 am |
| -2.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -3.4 |
| 8 pm |
| -3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| -3.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.4 |
Boston, MA,
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