Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:50PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:52PMMoonset 1:27PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 116 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri through Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres southeast of the waters through tonight. A cold front will sag southeast into the northern waters on Wed and linger around the southern waters through Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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location: 42.04, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 111811 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 211 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Oppressive heat and humidity continues through Wednesday, though today will be the hottest of the two days. A cold front will sag southward across southern New England tonight into Wednesday, bringing showers and storms. Rather warm but mainly dry weather follows Thursday and Friday behind the cold frontal passage. High pressure building over the Canadian Maritimes will bring a return to cooler and more seasonable temperatures this weekend. The overall dry weather pattern looks to continue through at least next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

145 PM Update .

Brought slight chances of precipitation to all of southern New England minus Cape Cod and the Islands. Have 2000-2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. There are DCAPE values of 900-1200 along with nearly adiabatic low level lapse rates. Thinking despite the weak dynamics will continue to see pop up showers/storms developing along sea breeze boundaries, topography and not out of the question a pop up storm develops across the interior per CAMs. With the environment in mind and per some reports these storms could bring locally gusty winds as they descend. Rest of the forecast remains on track.

10 AM Update .

Main concerns of the near term have not changed with oppressive heat across much of the region today. Have not altered temperature or dew points at this point in time as they look good compared to latest obs.

Have made some minor adjustments to precipitation chances this afternoon based on latest HRRR, HREF and HRRRE guidance. Still expect there could be a few isolated showers/storms that pop up. Best shot is across the Merrimack Valley. Have sagged slight chances from roughly from I-90 northward. Most locations will stay dry, but think diurnal heating along with topographic lift could trigger activity.

705 AM Update .

Scattered pockets of low clouds across portions of the CT River Valley into southeast MA will burnoff over the next few hours. Previous forecast captures this well and no significant changes ave been made to this update.

A hot, humid and hazy day in store for Southern New England. Today should prove to be the hottest and most oppressive day of this stretch of hot/humid weather. Elevated to potentially dangerous heat index values are anticipated.

Shortwave ridging aloft initially over Southern New England early this morning, ahead of a trough over eastern MI associated with yesterday's severe convection that evolved across the Midwest. Surface ridge of high pressure SW of Nantucket is allowing for continued SW winds to tap in higher moisture/dewpoints. Upper 60s to mid 70s dewpoints were already fairly common early this morning, and while some of these dewpoints should decrease a bit in the afternoon with mixing, it will still be quite sticky today.

The Heat Advisory remains valid with no changes made with the early- morning update. However the trend for today is for less cloud cover and more limited prospects for thunderstorms. Ambient air temps are expected to rise even higher today than yesterday given more sun than clouds. 925/850 mb temps are similar or about a degree warmer than yesterday. Given the warm start, mostly sunny conditions and that most of the climate sites reached 90-plus degrees (even Worcester), I bring highs today in the mid to upper 90s for most lower-elevation interior locales and upper 80s for the South Coast, Cape and Islands. This change resulted in higher maximum heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s. It's not out of the question that a few locations could approach or meet Excessive Heat Warning criteria heat indices for a time. The best chance looks to be the Merrimack and CT Valleys and into SE MA. Envisioned coverage being no more than isolated precluded upgrading any areas at this time, however. Despite the onshore SW winds, higher dewpoints near the South Coast and the Cape could bring Barnstable County into heat advisory levels but too limited here as well. Only sort of modest break from the heat will be that SW winds may become somewhat breezy, though it may just blow the humid/hot air around versus provide relief.

Secondary to the heat/high heat indices will be the chances for storms today. Though the heat and higher dewpoints should produce afternoon CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg, am not optimistic much if any storms develop this afternoon. The issue is that there's really nothing to trigger any convection with SW non- convergent flow. Even shallow cumulus may be hard to come by. CAMs provide really mixed signals before the evening (more on that below). Most should be dry for the afternoon, but one area that could be a focus for isolated storms is along the Route 2 corridor into the Merrimack Valley. There is a subtle wind shift that could be enough of a trigger in those areas between mid- afternoon to early evening. Weak flow aloft supports pulse-type storms that could produce heavy downpours, as well as localized strong wind gusts given robust low-level lapse rates achieved through strong daytime heating.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

Tonight:

We start to get into somewhat stronger 500 mb height falls by early this evening, as a cold front from eastern NY slowly approaches the Berkshires. Higher-res models blossom thunderstorms along it across central NY, and most of these shift eastward into western MA/western CT between 00-03z (after sunset). Though a couple storms could still be strong, given the time of day and the lack of better mid-level lapse rates to sustain robust convection through the evening, expect storms to be generally weakening on approach. Uncertain how far east storms may make it before the weakening trend begins, but better prospects for storms looks to be west of a FIT-ORH-IJD line. Carried 25-30 PoPs for scattered storms, then slight chances later in the overnight.

With increasing clouds and continued though lighter southwest winds, tonight has the potential to be even warmer than this overnight was. And it certainly will be another muggy night. I bring lows up to the 70s for most, with upper 70s not out of the question in the metro areas.

Wednesday:

The cool front will continue to be slowly progressing southeast into Wednesday. This will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms, which should tend to shift southeastward from roughly Boston- Worcester southward into CT/RI and SE MA. CAPE values look more limited than today, mainly from lack of greater heating. However parameters favoring heavy downpours, including deep warm cloud depths (12.5-13kft) and PWAT values around 1.8-2" should allow for any storms to be efficient rain producers. Some potential for localized urban or poor drainage flooding could ensue if storms train over the same areas, especially near/south of the frontal zone.

Heat Advisory continues into Wednesday, but maximum heat index values now appear lower and more marginal. The net effect of partial cloudiness and areas of rain/storms should temper high temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints should be at their highest on Wednesday though, and that should bring maximum heat indices in the mid 90s. Less sun might make those seem somewhat more tolerable than if the sun was fully out. For now will maintain the heat advisory but we should see lower-end advisory heat indices.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Still rather warm but less humid Thu/Fri and mainly dry

* Mainly dry/cooler this weekend with seasonable temps

* Overall, dry weather pattern continues into at least Mon

Details .

Thursday and Friday .

A cold front will press towards the south coast Wednesday evening, bringing an end to most of the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Generally dry weather will follow Thursday and Friday, but its possible the front lingers near the south coast over this time. Therefore, a low risk exists for a few spot showers/t-storms mainly south of the MA Turnpike Thu and Fri; but regardless expect dry weather to dominate. It will be somewhat less humid, but enough heating should push highs well into the 80s just inland from the coast to perhaps even a few lingering 90 degree readings on Thu.

This Weekend .

The main story this weekend will be surface high pressure dropping south into the Canadian Maritimes. This will allow for an onshore flow of cooler/seasonable temperatures across southern New England. Humidity levels will also be quite comfortable for this time of year. Given the trough axis will be to our east, expect dry weather to dominate this weekend, but can not rule out a few spot showers by Sunday with onshore flow.

Early Next Week .

Temperatures may moderate some by early next week as high pressure moves east of the Canadian Maritimes, but not to the extent of what we are currently experiencing. The overall dry weather pattern looks to persist into at least Mon of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z . High confidence

Expecting generally VFR conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Best chances are where there is some interaction with topography and along sea breezes per CAMs. Have kept a VCTS until 21-00Z at PVD, BOS and ORH. Less certain at BDL/BAF, but do have a VCSH mention. Winds out of the S to SW with speeds of 7-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 due to the well mixed boundary layer. Sea breeze remaining confined to the south coast.

Not out of the question that some MVFR to LIFR ceilings develop towards 00Z at Cape Cod and Nantucket terminals as stratus/fog moves in.

Tonight . High confidence

VFR at all terminals initially minus Cape Cod and the Islands where MVFR to LIFR stratus/fog is expected. Western areas could see a decaying shower/storm as the cold front approaches, but am not optimistic given the latest CAMs. Not out of the question that MVFR ceilings spread in. S to SW winds around 5-10 kts.

Wednesday . High confidence

Anticipate VFR conditions overall, but if showers/storms develop over a terminal could have periods of heavy rain along with a thunderstorm. Have held off on the thunder mention at this point in time. If this occurs may have local MVFR to IFR conditions, but coverage of showers/storms may be limited per the latest guidance. Haven't included in latest TAF. SW winds 5-10 kt ahead of the front, W to NW winds at similar speeds behind it.

Wednesday night . High confidence

Front stalls out nearby or along the south coast. This could bring an isolated shower/storm. Should have VFR conditions, but may see some stratus/fog along the south coast.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/ .

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Wind and sea conditions should be below small craft advisory criteria. That said, strengthening SW winds/gusts could get close to SCA levels later today into early tonight across the northeastern waters. For this area, wind gusts in the lower 20s-kt with seas around 4 ft.

Areas of stratus and low clouds will continue early tonight and then again into tonight. Foggy intervals as well, but stronger winds may keep visbys in the 1-3 SM range.

Isolated storms possible near the adjacent waters in northeast MA this afternoon, though coverage is limited. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight into Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog.

Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002-003. MA . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004-006. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BL/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank/BL/Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . BL MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi65 min S 12 G 16 76°F 71°F1 ft1012.5 hPa (-1.2)71°F
44090 23 mi58 min 70°F1 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi65 min S 9.7 G 9.7 72°F 1 ft1014.6 hPa (-0.8)68°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi61 min 91°F 64°F1012.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi70 min S 2.9 82°F 1016 hPa76°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi111 min S 9.7 G 9.7 71°F 1 ft1011.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi61 min S 13 G 16 84°F 1014.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi61 min 87°F 79°F1015.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi61 min 76°F 77°F1015.9 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi61 min 87°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi61 min S 14 G 17 82°F 78°F1014.6 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi61 min SSE 17 G 18 82°F 1014.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi61 min 81°F 80°F1014.6 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 43 mi45 min SSW 14 G 16 76°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi70 min SSW 7 84°F 1015 hPa75°F
PRUR1 45 mi61 min 76°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi61 min SSW 5.1 G 13 83°F 1015.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 48 mi55 min SW 15 G 16 1016.4 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA4 mi60 minSSE 8 G 1310.00 miA Few Clouds91°F75°F59%1013.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA10 mi63 minS 9 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds89°F73°F61%1014.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi63 minSSW 8 G 1510.00 miFair92°F71°F51%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE6E5SE5SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW5SW5SW5SW5SW55SW5SW76
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     8.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 PM EDT     8.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.94.35.97.48.28.17.25.74.22.71.71.72.74.25.77.38.58.786.75.23.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM EDT     3.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     -3.86 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT     3.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     -3.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.42.81.8-1.8-3.1-3.8-3.8-3.1-1.81.93.13.63.53.12.40.4-2.6-3.5-3.8-3.4-2.50.62.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.