Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 10:02 AM PDT (17:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 834 Am Pdt Wed Aug 5 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Today..NW wind 15 to 20 kt except nw 5 to 15 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 9 seconds and sw 1 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..NW wind 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to N 5 kt after midnight, then...becoming variable less than 5 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..N wind 5 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. W swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt except N 10 to 15 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft...building to 7 to 8 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the evening, then... Easing to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft...building to 9 ft in the evening, then...subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 ft.
PZZ300 834 Am Pdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. The thermal trough remains weak this morning. Northerly winds and steep seas are expected to build south and west of humbug mountain this afternoon and evening as the trough strengthens. Winds and seas will then weaken Wednesday night as a cold front moves through. The thermal trough will then re-strengthen Thursday afternoon bringing the return of advisory level conditions south of cape blanco. Friday through the weekend hazardous winds and seas are likely to expand and strengthen further with gales possible south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 051550 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 850 AM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020

UPDATE. Changes to PoP and Weather grids for this afternoon.

DISCUSSION. Satellite showed some early morning convective clouds moving through Modoc and Lake county already. The IMET on the July Complex fire reported these clouds producing virga. The clouds were not tightly packed and there is plenty of clearing behind them, so this should not inhibit convection this afternoon. If anything, it shows how primed that area is for thunderstorms this afternoon.

Reduced PoPs in the Klamath Falls area from 2-5PM PDT, removing the slight chance. There is still a slight chance in that area from 5-8PM.

In lake county, shear has trended up and lapse rates have increased to more than 9 C/km, so have added hail to the gusty thunderstorms already in the forecast. The latest runs of the HRRR have initiated multiple strong thunderstorms off the Warner mts in Modoc county and have them moving north into the favorable environment over Lake County. It is certainly not impossible the strongest storm or two of the day in this area reaches severe criteria.

The previous shift noted that shear and CAPE, combined with minimal convective inhibition, over the Trinity alps in Siskiyou County. Have not added small hail or gusty winds to the forecast yet, but may be making that addition last minute if the 00z Hi-res runs continue to show a favorable environment. Also, steering winds remain weak, under 15kt, so any storms should stay latched to the terrain and not move too far from its initiation area.

Expanded discussion on the thunderstorms and weather following today can be found in the previous discussion below. -Miles

AVIATION. For the 05/12Z TAF Cycle . LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings with some visibility restrictions and higher terrain obscurations will continue across Coos County into the Umpqua Valley this morning. Low clouds will also spread inland across Curry County, but are likely to be blocked by the higher Coastal Range Mountains. Humbug Mountain to Gold Beach could remain mostly clear, however.

Elsewhere, inland areas will continue to have VFR conditions, except over and near the Scott Valley and areas east of the Cascades this afternoon into this evening. In those areas isolated to scattered thunderstorms- some of which could be strong or even severe- are expected. These thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and, possibly, micro-bursts. Thunderstorms are possible at KLMT this afternoon, but those should move east of there by evening.

Over southwest Siskiyou County near the Red Salmon Fire there's likely to be some local MVFR visibility restrictions due to smoke. ~BTL/Sandler

MARINE. Updated 835 AM PDT Wednesday, 5 August 2020 . The thermal trough remains weak this morning, as shown by relatively light conditions at the buoys and stratus clouds remaining over much of the marine coastal waters area. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory that had been in effect has been cancelled until this afternoon, when northerly winds and steep seas are expected to build to advisory levels south and west of Humbug Mountain. Winds and seas will weaken Wednesday night as a cold front moves through.

The thermal trough will then re-strengthen Thursday afternoon bringing the return of advisory level conditions south of Cape Blanco. Friday through the weekend winds and seas are likely to strengthen further with advisory level winds and seas expected to expand to areas north of Cape Blanco. Gales are likely for a portion of the area south of Cape Blanco with advisory levels winds and seas expected for all areas south of the Cape. It should be noted that Friday through early next week could be a prolonged upwelling event for the coastal waters with multiple consecutive days of hazardous conditions. ~BTL/Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 349 AM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

DISCUSSION .

There are some interesting observations to be made on satellite this morning. First, a fair amount of stratus is pushing into the Umpqua valley as of 245 am this morning. In addition, one could look at the water vapor imagery on satellite and see the upper level low rotating near Humboldt and Trinity Counties. Looking at the water vapor, there appears to be a fair amount of low level and mid level water vapor moving into the region.

Aside from those observations, thunderstorms are still the main concern this afternoon and evening. Models continue to target eastern Klamath County and western Lake County as the hot spot of thunderstorm activity. The trinity mountains in south western Siskiyou County should also see storm activity. Convective available potential energy varies from 600 - 1000 j/kg. That is nothing to scoff at for our region and is on the higher side than what we usually see in the summer. Convective inhibition appears to be very limited during the afternoon and evening hours, so storms should have no problem forming under weakly forced conditions. 0 - 6 km bulk shear is around 25 to 30 knots in some areas. This is stronger than what we usually see in Oregon, so some of the storms will sustain a little longer and might produce some gusty winds.

Because of everything mentioned above, an isolated severe storm is possible in south central Oregon, especially south of Bend near Chemult and Crescent. Overall, we feel confident with the scattered thunderstorm wording over south central Oregon and south western Siskiyou County as thunderstorm probabilities are around 50% for those areas.

As for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a low will swing into the state of Washington and bring a cold front into most of the coastline around 7am Thursday. There is currently a 15 to 25 percent chance for light rain along the coast north of Cape Blanco. The rain accumulation should vary between 0.01 to 0.05 inches along the coast. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region and will likely be the coolest day observed for some time. Although the forecast does contain highs in the upper 80's for Medford today, this short stretch of weather, today and Thursday, will be the first time we've seen 80 degrees in Medford since July 12th.

After the upper level low traverses east, we'll see a coastal thermal trough build during Friday. Offshore flow looks modest with easterly 850 to 825 mb winds around 20 to 25 knots. This offshore flow will likely push Brookings into the upper 70's and perhaps up to 83 on Sunday if the MEXBOK bulletin is to be believed. This warming trend will be observed across the whole county warning area from Thursday into Monday with each day slightly warmer than the last. Highs are expected to hit 98 on Monday in Medford with 105 expected in Happy Camp and Somes Bar.

The last thing to mention is what some of the models are depicting next Tuesday. Ensemble members suggest some troughing off the coast of California yet again. The operational GFS does show a cutoff low meandering around the Pacific. Right now, we'll just keep note of it and wait until we're confident enough to throw thunderstorms in the forecast. Cutoff low forecasts can change significantly run to run, especially almost a week away.

-Smith

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 300 AM PDT Wednesday 5 August 2020 . The main concern in the forecast period will be scattered thunderstorms Wednesday. This scattered coverage is expected in south central Oregon and south western Siskiyou county. For today, the upper trough will move inland in northern California. Instability, mid level moisture and trigger will be higher east of the Cascades and northern California. Therefore, confidence is higher we'll have scattered thunderstorms east of the Cascades in Oregon and western Siskiyou county, with more frequent thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Because of the scattered thunderstorms, we have kept the red flag warning up for Wednesday in FWZ 624, 625 and 280.

Thursday, the upper trough shifts east and any threat of storms will be east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler and relative humidity higher, however gusty winds are expected in the afternoon due to a combination of a stronger winds aloft and tightening pressure gradient.

Friday through next weekend should remain dry with a thermal trough developing along the coast with increasing east to northeast winds near and at the ridges in fire zones 618, 619 and western 280.

-Sven/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi23 min NNW 14 G 16 56°F1016.5 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi45 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 58°F 59°F1016.1 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi45 min NNW 9.9 G 15 61°F 49°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi67 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1016.3 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi67 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist60°F57°F90%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS33CalmSW5S7SE8SE7SE6SE9SE5S4S4SE4SE4CalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4
1 day agoCalmW5SE5SE8SE5SE7W6W6NW6SE7SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3W3CalmCalmSE3Calm
2 days agoW3SW4NW6Calm4NW15
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NW64463SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:52 AM PDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM PDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:20 PM PDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:05 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.97.26.75.63.92.20.7-0.3-0.6-01.22.84.35.56.15.95.34.33.32.72.52.93.85

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:51 AM PDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:43 AM PDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:19 PM PDT     6.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM PDT     2.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.97.26.75.53.92.10.6-0.4-0.60.11.32.84.45.56.15.95.34.33.32.62.52.93.95

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.