Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 4:42PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 11:12 PM PST (07:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 831 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am pst Thursday...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft...subsiding to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 16 seconds... Building to 10 to 11 ft at 15 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Thu..S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 13 to 15 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Thu night..Northern portion, S wind 15 kt... Becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Brookings southward, sw wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 14 to 15 ft at 16 seconds. Showers.
Fri..S wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 14 to 16 ft. Showers.
Fri night..N wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 13 to 15 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..SE wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft. Showers.
Sat night..SW wind 5 kt...veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 9 to 11 ft. Showers.
Sun..SW wind 5 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 12 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. W swell 8 to 9 ft.
PZZ300 831 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Active weather will continue through the weekend with periods of moderate to heavy rain. Winds behind a cold front will diminish into early Thursday morning. However, a steep long period west swell will continue to build Thursday morning into Friday evening, with hazardous bar crossings and very active surf zones. Seas will diminish Saturday but likely remain steep through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 120432 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 832 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

DISCUSSION. 8:30 PM Radar imagery currently shows the main band of precipitation stretching from Alkali Lake in Oregon through Lakeview, Alturas and Adin. This band is producing some light to moderate rain or rain snow mix in some locations. Meanwhile, farther west, bands of showers are moving across southern Oregon and northern California and are about to cross the Cascades. Snow levels have increased to around 6000 feet from this afternoon where they'll linger until the next frontal system comes through tomorrow and they start falling. More information on that is located in the previous discussion below. Otherwise, no changes are needed for now. -Schaaf

AVIATION. For the 12/06Z TAFs . The main concern will remain low level wind shear for along the coast and inland westside locations until around midnight/08Z. There were some pirep reports of wind speed shear as low as 300 feet earlier this afternoon at the Medford Airport. Guidance shows it hovering around 1500 to 2000 ft. There are areas of VFR this evening, but conditions will worsen again overnight. A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings with terrain obscurations are expected to remain the predominant conditions through Thursday evening for all locations.

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Wednesday, 11 December 2019 . Active weather will continue through the weekend with periods of moderate to heavy rain. Winds behind a cold front will continue to diminish into early Thursday morning. However, seas will remain elevated due to building steep long period west swell. Swell dominated seas of about 15-17 feet at 17 seconds will impact the coastal waters from Thursday morning into Friday evening, with likely hazardous bar crossings and very active surf zones. Seas will diminish Saturday into Monday, but should remain steep due to ongoing swell.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 250 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019/

SHORT TERM . An active weather pattern is in store through late this week as a strong jet stream moves into the area and remains overhead through Friday bringing weather systems into the area. A front, associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska, is nearing the coast and will gradually move inland Thursday. Additional shortwaves will move across the area Thursday night and Friday resulting in widespread showers across the CWA.

Ahead of the front, snow levels have begun to rise today and are currently around 5500 feet elevation. Models continue to show snow levels will rise to around 6000 to 6500 feet and locally up to 7000 feet tonight then remain high through Thursday afternoon before lowering to 4500 to 5500 feet Thursday night, then down to near 4000 to 5000 feet Friday.

Light to moderate precipitation has spread into the coast, coastal mountains and portions of the west side this afternoon. Precipitation will increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon and this evening and continue through the day Thursday with widespread moderate precipitation expected across the area. Locally heavy precipitation is expected in the coast ranges and Southern Oregon Cascades as well. Much of this precipitation will fall as rain late today through Thursday afternoon, except over the higher mountains above 6000 feet where snow is likely. Expect precipitation to turn more showery Thursday evening and night and given the continued upper level jet over the area and shortwave activity, widespread showers are likely. Storm total precipitation amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected along the coast, in the coast ranges and across the Southern Oregon Cascades with generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches over other inland areas (except lower amounts in eastern Lake County and valleys in Modoc County). Along the coast and across western portions of the area, local ponding of water on roadways may occur with this rain. Area rivers and streams will also see some rises due to rainfall but hydrologic forecasts do not indicate flooding on the main rivers.

Snow will be a concern since snow levels are expected to lower Thursday evening through early Friday morning down to 4000 to 5000 feet elevation in southwest Oregon and down to 5000 to 5500 feet elevation across Northern California. Continued shower activity during this time will result in snow over the mountains, especially in the Cascades. During the day on Friday, expect showers to increase as an upper level shortwave and weak low move into the area from the west. On Friday, snow levels will likely stay down around 4000 to 5000 feet in southwest Oregon and slightlyhigher in northern California.

Given the active showery pattern Thursday with increasing showers Friday, moderate snow is expected in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet elevation, especially in the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas, Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Of note, for areas above 6000 feet in the Southern Oregon Cascades, moderate to heavy snow accumulations are expected to begin earlier - during the day Thursday - and continue Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. A winter weather advisory is in effect for the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet (please see the WSWMFR for details).

Lastly, of note, winds will increase tonight into Thursday as a mid level 700 mb 45-60kt westerly jet moves over the area. This will result in breezy to gusty southwest winds across much of the area on Thursday with the strongest winds over the higher mountains and in the Summer Lake area. Gusty southwest winds are expected in the Summer Lake area with gusts of 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for this area (please see the NPWMFR for details). In the southern Shasta Valley, models continue to show gusty southerly winds tonight into Thursday morning but winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria, with gusts to around 30 to 40 mph.

LONG TERM . (Saturday through Wednesday) . There's decent agreement among the operational and ensemble models that the pattern will remain fairly active during the forecast period. It's all going to come down to the timing and details of individual systems.

On Saturday, we'll be on the colder side of things as a weak upper trough will move in from the northwest in the afternoon. Snow levels are expected to range between 3000 and 3500 feet and much will depend on precip intensity. For the most part it should be on the light side during the day, but could pick up in intensity Saturday night with snow levels around 3000 feet. Even then snow accumulations are not expected to be a high concern for the higher passes along the Cascades, Siskiyou Summit and Diamond Lake area. Preliminary estimates show generally 1-3 inches from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, but details on this could change in the coming days.

The operational models show different solutions Sunday through Sunday night. The ECMWF shows overrunning precipitation from a warm front moving into the area while the GFS is drier with warm frontal precipitation arriving Monday morning. This is also in line with the respective ensembles. For now did not make much change to the pops during this time.

Ridging builds into the area Monday with dry conditions expected. Another upper through could end up splitting as it moves into the shortwave ridging Tuesday. There's a timing difference with this one and we could end up stying dry, but confidence remains low. More systems will had in our direction Wedensday through Wednesday night. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for ORZ031. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday above 5000 feet in the for ORZ027.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi43 min S 18 G 23 55°F 53°F1018 hPa53°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi61 min S 14 G 16 53°F 51°F1018.2 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi55 min SSE 17 G 20 53°F 52°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi17 minVar 30.25 miLight Rain Fog53°F53°F100%1018.9 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi77 minSSE 11 G 183.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE7SE8SE10SE8SE5SE4E3SE3SE4SE5SE4SE5SE4E64633SE8--S8SE83
1 day agoCalmCalmE5E7Calm3Calm4E3Calm35E5444SE5654Calm4E34
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5S33CalmCalmCalmCalmE34E3CalmSE8

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM PST     5.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 AM PST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:00 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:03 PM PST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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65.754.23.53.23.54.45.56.77.67.97.46.24.52.60.8-0.4-0.9-0.50.62.13.85.1

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:56 AM PST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:34 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:51 AM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 PM PST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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65.754.23.53.23.64.45.66.87.67.97.46.24.42.50.7-0.5-0.9-0.50.62.23.85.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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