FXUS66 KMFR 262101 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 201 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

DISCUSSION
Seasonal temperatures continue across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. An upper trough remaining in place over Canada and the northwestern US is helping to moderate temperatures in the short-term.

Wildfire smoke is going to be a significant concern for the foreseeable future. The Park Fire in the Sierra Nevada foothills, the cluster of fires in eastern Douglas County, and the Falls Fire and the Battle Mountain Complex to the northeast are all possible sources of smoke for the area. Light nighttime winds allow for smoke to accumulate around a fire and spread out, while stronger afternoon winds can guide a smoke plume over a localized area. This afternoon, the Park Fire plume continues to move over Lake and Modoc counties but overnight wind chances near the fire may push the plume to the east and bring some relief. However, lighter winds will allow smoke from the Douglas County fires to spread over areas east of the Cascades. An Air Quality Alert is in place for Klamath and Lake counties through Monday at noon. Intermittent smoke is expected in Jackson, Josephine, and eastern Douglas counties. Smoke accumulation beyond the Alert's timeframe will be possible as these fires continue.

Precipitation looks unlikely through the forecast period. There are some slight 10% thunderstorm chances over southern Lake County and 5- 10% chances over Klamath County and along the California border.
Expected dry air aloft makes substantial rainfall look unlikely.
That makes these storms more of a concern for lightning strikes, and thunderstorm possibility will be considered closely during future analysis. An additional consideration for precipitation will be a weak cold front that will move over the area from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon. Currently the chances of rainfall are 15-25% along the Oregon coast and eastern Douglas county, with precipitation amounts less than 0.1 inches expected where rainfall does occur.

Long-term guidance shows an upper ridge developing in the wake of Tuesday's weak trough. Temperatures will warm quickly through Wednesday and Thursday and are forecast to remain warm through next weekend. Broadly, temperatures rise to the high 90s to low 100s for west side valleys and low to mid 90s for areas east of the Cascades.
This is moving towards a return of heat products, especially for west side valleys, by next weekend. HeatRisk guidance currently cuts off on August 1st and does not indicate any Major or Extreme heat through that day, but a trend towards increasing heat impacts is clear in the guidance that is available. -TAD

Today we celebrate the retirement of Ken Sargeant, the Information Technology Officer for Medford since 2002. Ken's career started at Santa Maria, CA in 1993 and has also included time as a Senior Forecaster in Elko, NV. Ken has been at the forefront of NWS advancements, including the deployment of dopper radar and being one of the first group of ITOs. As Medford's ITO, Ken has made sure that we have the right software to provide the best forecasts to the public. When things aren't working, he's been quick to diagnose and fix the problem (after turning it off then on again, of course).
We've been fortunate to have both his support and his company here at the Medford WFO, and we wish him all the best in the peace and quiet that awaits him and his family.
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