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Marine Weather and Tides Harbor, OR Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:59AM

Sunset 7:36PM

Saturday March 28, 2020 11:28 PM PDT (06:28 UTC)

Moonrise 8:26AM

Moonset 11:02PM

Illumination 26%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR

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Area Discussion for - Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 290311 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 811 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE.

No changes to the forecast this evening as showers continue across the forecast area. The chances for rain increase tonight, especially along the coast, as the trough moves onshore.

Read the discussion below for more information on the weather beyond tonight.

-Smith

SHORT TERM. /Issued 249 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ The next 48-72 hours (through Tuesday) will continue to be active with several disturbances moving through the area. This will bring unsettled weather with showers/periods of rain and some mountain snow. The strongest system will move through late Sunday night through Monday night. Since we have been so dry through most of the winter and into the early part of spring, precipitation with these systems will be mostly beneficial and welcome.

An upper level trough offshore will continue to move southeastward tonight and into northern California on Sunday. Moist southwest flow aloft in advance of this trough is bringing some rain showers to the area this afternoon and will continue to do so through tonight, but precipitation amounts will be generally light. Another "kicker" trough is following closely behind this system and will send a cold front onshore into Washington and Oregon on Sunday with more showers. Precipitation with this front may be a little heavier, but still primarily on the light side. Snow levels will waver between 4000 and 5000 feet during this time frame, but with accumulating snow mainly staying above the higher passes. Tonight through Sunday evening, amounts of 2-5 inches are forecast in the Cascades above 5000 feet, but road accumulation even there will probably only occur during the late night and morning hours; otherwise, it should melt due to higher sun angle and warm ground during the day. Showers should taper off at least for a while Sunday evening.

The next fast-moving disturbance will bring precipitation back to coastal areas overnight Sunday with the cold front moving onshore on Monday. Since the flow will be primarily WSW, we expect a period of moderate to heavy precipitation along the coast and also the adjacent Coast Ranges/Cascades with common liquid amounts of 0.50-2.00 inches. The heaviest amounts will be where orographic enhancement is maximized (Coast Ranges/Cascades north of Hwy 140). We are currently forecasting around 0.25 of an inch here in Medford. Some precipitation is also expected east of the Cascades, but with much lighter amounts. Advisory level west to southwest winds are a good bet east of the Cascades, especially in the Summer Lake area along Highway 31, on Monday/Monday evening ahead of the front (models indicate 700 mb winds close to 55 kt). Snow levels once again look to be mostly above 4500 feet, keeping the best snow above the main passes. Accumulating snow will again be mostly for elevations above 5000 feet, with several inches possible up around Crater and Diamond Lakes. Since much of the precipitation will be coming during the day up there, road snow will be mitigated somewhat, but with precipitation lingering Monday night, an advisory could be necessary for portions of zone 27.

The parent upper low will move across southern British Columbia on Tuesday, but this will keep showers going in moist onshore flow. Showers will be focused from the Cascades westward with snow levels remaining mostly 4000-5000 feet. Showers gradually diminish in coverage Tuesday night. -Spilde

LONG TERM. /Issued 249 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

Wednesday through Saturday . The area will still be on the southern periphery of the upper level trough centered over central Canada Wednesday morning. Energy riding around the base of this low will maintain at least a slight chance of showers for the far northern and western portions of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. As the energy moves out of the area, showers will come to an end by late Wednesday and dry conditions will persist into the weekend.

Upper level ridging attempts to establish itself over the area Thursday, but shortwaves moving through the ridge will keep it from really strengthening. The models are in fairly good agreement up until this point. The GFS strengthens the ridge Friday while the EC maintains a flat ridge and brings a weak front with precipitation into the area. The GFS shows some precipitation with the shortwave as well, but is further north and less robust for our area compared to the EC. The majority of the ensembles for both models maintain dry weather during this period, so have opted to keep the forecast dry through the start of the weekend. Although conditions should be dry, there could be periods of increased cloudiness as shortwaves move through the area. A warming trend will commence Wednesday into the weekend with afternoon temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 29/00Z TAF Cycle . A showery pattern will bring a mix of mainly VFR and MVFR ceilings through tonight with areas of obscured terrain. Freezing levels will be 4500 to 5000 feet with showers most numerous near the coast and secondarily, over the higher terrain this evening into tonight. Showers will increase from the Cascades west Sunday morning. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR tonight into Sunday morning as another wave of precipitation moves into the area. Expect MVFR cigs to continue into Sunday afternoon. -CC

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday 28 March 2020 . Active weather will bringing periods of increased southerly winds. Winds will reach low end advisory levels and seas will be wind driven and steep, especially north of Gold Beach through tonight. Conditions will subside below advisory levels Sunday afternoon.

Swell will begin increasing Sunday night and another front will move onshore Sunday night into Monday. This front may be strong enough to create gale conditions in coastal waters north of Cape Blanco as the front is trapped along the coast. Current thinking is for winds to remain just below gales but, hi-res model guidance is trending winds stronger. So if this trend holds, the current hazardous seas watch could be upgraded to a gale watch in coming updates.

High pressure will build offshore Monday night into Tuesday. Northwest swell will peak Tuesday. -miles/CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for PZZ350-370.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA	15 mi	38 min	SE 9.7 G 14	51°F	51°F	5 ft	1018.7 hPa	47°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA	21 mi	58 min	SSE 7 G 8	51°F	52°F		1018.6 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR	49 mi	58 min	SSE 15 G 18	51°F	50°F		1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR	2 mi	32 min	ESE 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	48°F	46°F	96%	1018.5 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA	18 mi	32 min	SSE 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	51°F	46°F	86%	1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon

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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR

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