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Marine Weather and Tides Harbor, OR Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:35AM

Sunset 5:12PM

Monday January 20, 2020 4:47 AM PST (12:47 UTC)

Moonrise 3:57AM

Moonset 1:47PM

Illumination 22%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR

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Area Discussion for - Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 201201 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 401 AM PST Mon Jan 20 2020

SHORT TERM. A high pressure ridge remains in place over the area this morning and will gradually shift east later today as an upper trough nears the Pacific Northwest coast. Light rain is possible over the coastal waters and along the coast this afternoon into this evening. Then a strong front will approach the coast late this evening and tonight, and move inland across the area Tuesday. Models remain on track showing this front moving inland Tuesday, bringing rain and snow along with areas of strong, gusty southerly winds.

A period of moderate to locally heavy precipitation is expected along the coast and in western and south central Siskiyou county tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. Orographic effects will result in enhanced precipitation rates over the mountains in western Siskiyou County and in the Mount Shasta area in south- central Siskiyou County due to a strong moist mid level southwesterly jet combined with lift associated with the front. So expect a period of moderate to heavy snowfall with the frontal band in these areas. A winter weather advisory is in effect above 3500 ft in the Mount Shasta area and a winter storm warning is in effect above 4500 feet in the Mount Shasta area and in western Siskiyou County. Please see the WSWMFR for details.

Elsewhere, expect light to moderate precipitation to spread inland with the front tonight and Tuesday. Snow levels are forecast initially around 4000 to 5000 feet, lowering to around 3500 feet behind the front in showers. The front will quickly move inland and model solutions indicate that it will push east of the Cascades by early afternoon then east of the area in the late afternoon Tuesday. As the upper trough moves in behind the front during the day Tuesday, expect showers to develop, with numerous from the Cascades west with scattered showers east of the Cascades.

In addition to precipitation, expect wind impacts with this front with breezy to gusty winds developing for many areas of the CWA Monday evening through Tuesday. Strongest winds are expected at the coast, over the mountains and in the Shasta Valley and Summer Lake areas. At the coast, expect strong winds to develop over the headlands with gusts of 60 mph. Elsewhere along the coast, expect gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Winds will peak along the coast tonight. Inland, breezy to gusty winds are expected to peak late tonight and Tuesday morning. Models continue to support strong winds for the Shasta Valley, Summer Lake area and mountains in Lake County showing a 700 mb jet of 50 to 65 kts moving over the area and the surface pressure gradient increasing over the area. A wind advisory remains in effect for these areas (please see the NPWMFR for details).

Showers will linger Tuesday evening across the area with mainly light precipitation amounts. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday a weak ridge will build into the area. However, a warm front will move over the ridge and inland into the area resulting in additional precipitation moving into the area. (Please see the long term discussion below for details on this and additional systems mid to late week).

AVIATION. For the 20/06Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions prevail late this evening with patchy IFR at the coast including KOTH. High clouds will hinder/delay the development of valley IFR conditions, but they are likely to return to some of the valleys, including KRBG, KMFR, and KLMT, late tonight through much of Monday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR again by Monday afternoon, but areas of MVFR cigs will develop over the coastal waters late Monday afternoon, moving onshore later Monday night with higher terrain becoming obscured. -DW

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PST Monday 20 Jan 2020 . A weak front will move in this morning, starting a trend of increasing south winds and building seas. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Monday with south winds of 15 to 25 kt and gusts to 30 kt and seas of 10 to 15 feet at 15 seconds. A stronger front will likely produce gales and very steep wind-driven seas tonight followed by very high and very steep long-period swell through Tuesday evening. Seas will likely peak near 20 feet at 15 seconds during this time frame with bar conditions becoming very hazardous. The pattern will remain active for the rest of the week with several fronts moving through. These fronts will likely generate winds and seas at least at small craft advisory levels. -DW/BPN

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 246 PM PST Sun Jan 19 2020/ . Wed 22 Jan through Sun 26 Jan 2020.

An upper ridge building in from the southwest will force a warm front north through the area Wednesday. This will bring light precipitation to most of the Medford CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snow levels will start off in the 3000-4000 foot range rising to 500-6500 feet.

The ridge will break to the east of the area Wednesday night, and a short wave ejecting from the upstream trough will push a cold front onshore Thursday. This front will weaken and stall over the area Thursday night as the upper level support moves east.

Yet another ejecting short wave will push another front onshore Friday night. This one will be stronger as the short wave will be stronger and the long wave trough will be closer to the coast.

The EC and GFS model solutions diverge from Saturday on. They both depict an offshore trough, but they differ on the strength and timing of ejecting short waves, and thus differ on the timing and strength of incoming fronts. There is high confidence that the overall pattern will be stormy, but confidence is low on the timing and strength of individual fronts. Snow levels will vary between 4500 and 7000 feet, remaining above the major passes.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.

CA . Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ080. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 3500 feet in the for CAZ082. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ082. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

CC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA	15 mi	28 min	E 3.9 G 7.8	50°F	51°F		1015.6 hPa	43°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA	21 mi	54 min		46°F	50°F		1015.4 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR	49 mi	48 min		50°F	50°F		1016.5 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NE4

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SE24 G29

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S15 G19

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SE14 G18

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SE21 G28

SE20 G26

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SE18 G23

SE15 G19

SE13 G19

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S19 G23

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SE13 G16

SE19 G23

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S25 G31

SE23 G30

S24 G29

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S27

S26 G32

SE29 G36

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR	2 mi	52 min	SE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	44°F	43°F	96%	1015.6 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA	18 mi	1.9 hrs	E 4	10.00 mi	Fair	42°F	41°F	96%	1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)

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E3

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E7

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SE12 G17

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SE10 G18

SE11 G21

SE6

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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon

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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR

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