Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgman, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Upper level ridging in place today across the eastern third of the CONUS which will bring us warmer temperatures than yesterday.
The low pressure system that we have been talking about lately over the Four-Corners region will begin to move steadily northeastward into the northern Plains today and this will allow for severe weather across MN, IA, and WI, and NW IL. For our area, ahead of this system we will see breezy southerly winds become more southwesterly and gusty later today and will see an increase in moisture influx with dew points going from around 40 degrees this morning to the low to mid 50s by this evening.
Highs across the CWA will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s today.

A cold front associated with this aforementioned low will drape southward down into TX and will move eastward tonight and be knocking on our western portions of the CWA around 1-2 AM EDT.
So not really much change in the thinking of timing since yesterday afternoon. The current thinking is any convection associated with this front will begin weakening as it enters our area, however a strong or severe storm would not be impossible but the diurnal timing will just not be favorable. Wind gusts and hail would be the main threats early morning Tuesday.

As the front moves eastward the next consideration for Tuesday will be how much debris cloud cover will we be dealing with as this will determine if surface warming is minimized. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s is expected with the warmer temperatures over our eastern half of the CWA Surface dew points will also increase into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Forecasted SB CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 deg/km for Tuesday afternoon. Bulk shear values of 35 to 45 kts and 0-1 km Helicity values of around 100 m2/s2 also should be available Tuesday afternoon over the eastern parts of the CWA So the ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms look to be all there and large hail and gusty winds seem to be the main threat but with the sufficient helicity values a few isolated tornadoes would not be out of the question. With PWats around 1.2 inches any of the thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours and possibly some local nuisance flooding. SPC severe thunderstorm outlook also has not changed much over our area since yesterday afternoon and still has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms east of about IN-15.

With the front pushing eastward we get a short break in precipitation on Wednesday morning and lows back in the 40s.
However, rain chances begin to increase again through Wednesday as a warm frontal boundary pushes back northward bringing moisture poleward once again and bringing warming temperatures back into the area. Highs on Wednesday in the 60s but getting warmer on Thursday with highs into the 70s with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan. Troughing pushes back into the region by Friday into Saturday cooling temperatures once again into the 60s for highs and bringing mainly drier conditions.

High amplitude ridging begins building across the central CONUS with ridge axis pushing well poleward into northern central Canada by Saturday. This ridge will push eastward into the region by Sunday and will bring a warming trend into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 801 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for a majority of the period, with potential for MVFR ceilings/visibilities towards 9-12z with any showers or thunderstorms. The main focus will be light ESE winds this morning shifting south into the afternoon, strengthening to around 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to around 30 knots are possible into the overnight period, though as we decouple they may initially become more intermittent. LLWS will be in the 45 to 50 knot range after 3-4z and continuing through 12z. Decaying showers and thunderstorms will be approaching the west around 7-9z, then potentially KFWA towards 10-12z, however confidence is very low. It is possible the storms die out before they reach Indiana all together. Have a prob30 for MVFR visibilities at each terminal to account for this, but the best chances will be Tue afternoon and evening, especially at KFWA.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.