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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 224 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 102315 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 615 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Light lake effect rain and snow showers will continue this evening, but will diminish toward midnight. Some patchy drizzle is also expected this evening. Any light lake effect snow accumulations are expected to occur this evening, generally one half inch or less on grassy surfaces. An extended period of dry weather is expected through Friday.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Lake effect precipitation will continue to be the primary forecast of the short term.

Subtle veering of low level flow this afternoon has allowed for better fetch and some organization of lake effect rain/snow showers across west central/southern Lower Michigan. Moisture depths have been a limitation through most of the day, but a pocket of slightly enhanced low level moisture is overspreading the southern Great Lakes region from Illinois in advance of the next upper level short wave. This forcing and slightly better moisture quality at the lower reaches of the ice nuclei producing layers, should allow for some uptick in lake effect snow showers late afternoon into early this evening. Impacts are still expected to be very limited with sfc wet bulbs at or above freezing and road temps above freezing through early evening. Despite some uptick in low level moisture through early evening, near term forecast soundings still suggest marginal profiles for rain/snow in terms of ice nucleation through late afternoon. It still appears as though the narrow temporal window for any light lake effect snow accumulations on grassy areas could be in the 23Z-03Z timeframe.

Some very low end concern (low confidence) could materialize late this evening (after 03Z) of some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle in association with lake effect precip as sfc wet bulbs drop below freezing and road temps cool. By the time these conditions supportive of freezing drizzle take hold, lake effect parameters start to become less favorable with gradual lowering inversion heights overnight and increasingly shallow moisture profiles that appear to be less supportive of measurable precip.

Quiet conditions are in store for Monday as flow backs to the southwest in response to anticyclone shifting across the Ohio Valley. Some lingering lake effect cloudiness will persist across the north/northeast with clearing skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures will be seasonable for Monday as low level thermal trough begins to retreat.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Split-type flow will develop early this week with cut-off upper height negative anomaly across southwest CONUS, and a more progressive northern stream affecting south central Canada into the northern Great Lakes. The most pronounced of these northern stream short waves will track across Ontario on Tuesday with a trailing cold front tracking across the local area. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Tuesday into the low to mid 40s, but highs may be reached midday before front settles southward across the region. Precipitation is not expected with the front as anticyclone across southeast CONUS blocks any significant moisture return ahead of the front, and only some increase in mid level clouds is expected.

No significant changes have been made to the forecast for middle/latter portions of the week as northern latitude upper ridge dominates. Some indications late Friday into Saturday of progressive Pacific northwest wave racing across Great Lakes, but low confidence at this forecast distance given low predictability in track and limited prospects for significant moisture recovery through this forecast valid period.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Lake effect snow showers and clouds will continue to bring IFR conditions at KSBN and some light showers around KFWA until about 04z Mon when drier air and winds will begin backing which will allow lake effect clouds/precip to diminish for both terminals and bring rising cigs and increased vsbys through the remainder of the TAF period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.

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