Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canaan, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above-normal temperatures will continue through the midweek. The NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate category for heat- related impacts, especially on Tuesday.

2) The most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is likely on Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible where thunderstorms pass through during the afternoon hours.

3) A return to more seasonable conditions is expected later this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper level ridge off the East Coast will allow for a south to southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft through early this week bringing the warmest airmass since last summer to eastern New York and western New England. 850 hPa temperatures (increasing to +15 to +18C) will run around +2 to +2.5 STDEV through Tuesday of this week. Highs on Monday will reach into the 80s to near 90 for most areas then the mid-80s to lower 90s on Tuesday. Some locations within the mid-Hudson Valley could reach the mid-90s on Tuesday. While record highs will not be challenged on Monday, they could be challenged on Tuesday.
Current record highs for Tuesday are displayed in the climate section below. Dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to lower to locally mid-60s will result in heat index (feels- like temperatures) to be close to the air temperature and generally below heat advisory criteria. However, these hot conditions have resulted in the NWS HeatRisk to be in the moderate category for most of the area on Tuesday. This category affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration, and some health systems and industries. The heat will begin to ease on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region with more information on this in key message 2.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Most areas will remain dry through Tuesday though some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible on both days.
Activity on Monday will occur mainly for areas north of I-90 and during the morning hours along a northeastward lifting warm front. The more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is likely on Wednesday ahead of a passing cold front. Most sources of guidance is now pushing the cold front through the region during the morning and early afternoon hours. In this scenario, the better potential for some stronger thunderstorms may be focused for areas mainly south and east of Albany where some destabilization will be possible in the morning. Will monitor trends on the timing of the front and where the potential for stronger thunderstorms occur. Temperatures could widely vary on Wednesday pending the frontal location with current forecast values ranging from the mid to upper 60s across the Adirondacks to the upper 90s/lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

High pressure builds into the region on Thursday with a return to more seasonable conditions for the end of the week along with a much drier airmass (dewpoints falling back into the 30s). High temperatures return to the 60s to around 70 for most days. Most sources of guidance brings a return to rainfall sometime next weekend as a southern stream system lifts across the area.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with high pressure largely dominant across the region. VFR conditions are set to continue throughout the duration of the 18z TAF cycle, though mid and high-level clouds will increase overnight in response to a weak shortwave passing by to our north. KGFL is the only terminal with a chance, though low probability, to see some light showers as a result, so a PROB30 group was added for early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will be breezy through the afternoon out of the southwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 10-15kt and gusts up to 20-25kt. As we lose heating and subsequent mixing tonight, winds become light and variable over night before picking up out of the south to southeast again tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE
High Temperature Records:

May 19 Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.