Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:34 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 941 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft late this evening, then 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly after midnight. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 941 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak wave of low pressure well east of the delmarva will drift southeast as high pressure noses down from eastern new england and the canadian maritimes overnight. The high will weaken on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will move through late Friday night into early Saturday, followed by a dry secondary cold frontal passage late day Saturday or Saturday evening. High pressure will then follow from Saturday night into early next week.

FXUS61 KALY 190254 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1054 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will settle south along the New England coast providing a cool and damp onshore flow with isolated showers ending overnight. After a brief break overnight into Friday morning, additional showers are likely Friday afternoon and night associated with a cold frontal passage. Cool and breezy conditions return for the upcoming weekend, with a few passing showers possible Saturday, and dry conditions for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

UPDATE as 1054 pm EDT
High pressure continue to build westward from eastern New England. An occluded front has fallen apart, as a weak low pressure system passes well south and east of Long Island. The onshore east to southeast flow will continue with clouds continuing overnight. The 00Z KALY has a strong inversion above 900 hPa with the stratus stuck in place. Some isolated showers will linger over the Upper Hudson River Valley and Lake George for a few more hours. We adjusted the Pops and WX and the isolated light showers based on KENX radar trends.
Lows will be in the mid 30s to lower to isolated mid 40s.

PREV DISCUSSION [0329 PM EDT]...

A few breaks of sunshine are possible early Fri with the ridge axis aloft over the area, but skies should remain mostly cloudy overall. The ridge axis then shifts east of our area by Friday afternoon, as a cold front starts to approach from the west.
Later Fri afternoon into Fri evening, the cold front will bring widespread showers north/west of the Capital District, becoming more scattered from Albany south/east with a low level S-SW flow resulting in some downsloping. Rainfall amounts will be light with < 0.25" expected. Prior to the cold front arriving, high temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in lower elevations and lower/mid 50s in the higher terrain.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Guidance in good agreement indicating the cold front passing through from west to east Friday evening into Fri night. Mainly isolated to scattered showers will occur along the front, with dry conditions developing in its wake. It will take much of the night for the front to clear the entire area. With mostly cloudy skies and a developing westerly breeze behind the front, low temperatures will be held up a bit despite cold advection ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday starts out dry with surface ridging extending north/east from the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region. Some sunshine is expected during the morning to early afternoon, which should help boost temperatures into the upper 50s/lower 60s in the valleys. Then, a fairly potent upper level short wave approaching from the Great Lakes will move across the region Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. This disturbance will bring increasing clouds and widely scattered showers, along with gusty westerly winds around 25-35 mph developing. Some snow flakes could mix in across the higher terrain.

Drying/clearing will quickly take place Sat night in wake of the disturbance, with surface ridging extending north/east into our area. Lows will be colder than recent nights, with upper 20s to around 30 expected in the higher terrain and lower/mid 30s in the lower elevations. There will remain a westerly breeze, but winds will not be as gusty as during the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunday looks to be dry and cool with zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging. Some instability clouds will likely develop, but there still should be plenty of breaks through the day. It will be breezy as well, with W-NW winds gusting 20-30 mph at times. Highs will be slightly below normal, with mid/upper 40s in the higher terrain and mid/upper 50s in lower elevations.

Dry conditions and moderating temperatures should occur on Monday, with a small area of high pressure in place. Tuesday should start out dry with a mild southerly flow developing ahead of a cyclone approaching from the Midwest. Chances for showers will increase later in the day into Tue evening as this system gets closer. There are model differences with regards to the track/evolution so will mention mainly chance to likely PoPs for now Tue night through Wed as the system moves across our region.

A much colder air mass then builds in Wed night into Thu with NW and potentially strong cold advection developing. Mainly dry/breezy conditions are expected, with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure continues to build in from the Gulf of Maine this evening as an occluded front remains over western NY and PA.
The light drizzle and isolated showers have move westward of the TAF sites with lingering MVFR/low VFR stratus at KPOU/KALB/KGFL/KPSF.

The stratus may linger at the TAF sites in the high MVFR range at 2.5-3 kft AGL until 10Z-13Z/FRI and then will lift to VFR levels in the 3.5-5 kft AGL in the late morning into the early afternoon ahead of the next disturbance. The clouds will thicken and lower in the late afternoon with some light rain or showers arriving at KALB-KGFL between 22Z/FRI to 00Z/SAT. Cigs and vsbys will lower back to MVFR levels.

The winds will be from east to southeast at 7 KT or less tonight. The winds will increase from the south to southeast at 8-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Hudson
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Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:13 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
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Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Catskill
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Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:56 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
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Catskill, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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