Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canaan, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 1240 AM EDT, band of high clouds across central portions of the region extending into southern VT/Berkshires will slowly shift south/east through daybreak. Areas to the N/W of these clouds have already dropped into the mid 30s to lower 40s, and expect min temps around daybreak to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Elsewhere, min temps should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the short term period.

High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather for Wednesday into Wednesday night as it slowly slides eastward across the area. Skies will remain fairly clear for both Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highs look mainly in the 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday and fall into the 30s to mid 40s for Wednesday night.

On Thursday, a weak shortwave trough will be passing by to north within the westerly flow aloft. At the surface, a weak warm frontal boundary may be lifting by to the southwest as well. The combination of these two features may allow for some diurnally-forced showers to develop during peak heating on Thursday across northern areas. There may be enough instability for a rumble of thunder, but it looks fairly limited. Any precip looks fairly spotty in coverage and mostly light in intensity, so will include some slight to low chc POPs across the Adirondacks, but the rest of the area should be farther from the better forcing and moisture and looks to stay dry. Temps will be warmer on Thursday, with valley areas reaching into the low to middle 70s. Once peak heating decreases, any showers should dissipate and end on Thursday evening, allowing for mainly dry weather on Thursday night with lows in the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Message:

-Steady rainfall expected Friday Night into Saturday with a 50% to 70% probability of at least a half inch of rainfall according to the latest NBM guidance.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will be exiting off the coast of New England on Friday. Despite this, it should be dry through much of the day on Friday with at least partial sunshine, with increasing clouds late in the day. With a southerly flow in place, temps look fairly mild, with highs in valley areas reaching the lower to middle 70s.

Surface low pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday night and be crossing across the Northeast on Saturday. Model guidance still isn't in total agreement, but steady precip should begin west to east across the area on Friday evening. All areas look to be seeing rainfall for late Friday night into Saturday morning with POPs in the 60 to 90 percent range at this time. Precip will tapering off on Saturday during the late morning through afternoon hours (again, timing still subject to change) from west to east. Latest NBM guidance suggests a good shot for at least a half inch for most areas (in the 50 to 70 percent range at this time).
Probabilities for over an inch are still on the lower side (20% to 40%), but have increased compared to yesterday's runs. With the precip and clouds, temps will be cooler than Friday, but still fairly seasonable for late April, with 60s for most areas.

Behind this storm system, another round of dry and quiet weather is expected for Sunday into early next week with fairly clear skies. Temps should be in the 60s again on Sunday, but may be rising back into the 60s for valley areas early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning with the expectation for such to continue throughout the entirety of the 06z TAF cycle. With high pressure dominating the region, once a narrow band of high cirrus currently seen on infrared satellite, erodes and moves out of the region, skies will be clear with increasing northwesterly winds throughout the day. Sustained speeds will get up to about 10 kt or just over with gusts up to 15- 20 kt by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
With high pressure in control, dry weather is expected over the next few days. Afternoon RH values will be as low as 30 to 35 percent in valley areas for Wednesday and Thursday, although they should recover to 70 percent or above at night. With high pressure nearby, winds will be fairly light, generally under 15 mph or less through Thursday.

The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall looks to be on Friday night into Saturday.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.