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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saugerties, NY

June 26, 2024 11:28 AM EDT (15:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1046 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024

Today - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of tstms and slight chance of showers late.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers likely. Chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.

Thu night - NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.

Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms.

Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1046 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front moves across the waters this morning. A cold front then approaches from the west, moving across late tonight into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday night and moves over the region late in the day Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A cold front then moves through on Sunday with high pressure building in for the beginning of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 261442 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1042 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly sunny, warm, and slightly breezy conditions expected today. A period of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms overspread the region this evening along an incoming cold front. Storms south of Interstate 90 will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours that may result in localized flooding. Cooler and even breezier conditions arrive for Thursday as high pressure builds into the Northeast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
A diffuse front approaching from the west has resulted in a mix of sunshine and clouds across central parts of the area including the Capital District. Winds remain S-SW ahead of the front, and will shift to the west and increase to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts this afternoon. 3km NAM indicating an isolated shower/T-storm along the front this afternoon, so added 20% PoP for areas south/east of Albany.
Other CAMs are dry, but isolated convection cannot be ruled out along the boundary with some instability present (MLCAPE ~500-1000 J/Kg). Otherwise, it will become mostly sunny and very warm with highs well into the 80s with some lower 90s in parts of the mid Hudson Valley.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0706]...Early clouds give way to mainly sunny skies as zonal flow strengthens aloft in response to an incoming potent shortwave that will amplify as it swings into the Great Lakes. A boundary settles just south of I-90 this afternoon with dew points north of this boundary across the Greater Capital District, southern VT, Upper Hudson Valley, and SW Adirondacks actually only rising into the upper 50s to low 60s as a pocket of dry air in the mid-levels tracks overhead and supports deep boundary layer mixing. Not only will the deep mixing result in temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s but westerly winds should also turn a bit breezy with gusts reaching up to 20kts at times. South of this boundary temperatures will be a bit warmer reaching into the low to mid 90s and higher dew points in the low to mid 60s will make it feel even warmer. A few pockets of heat index values reaching 95 degrees likely in the mid-Hudson Valley but not enough coverage to warrant a heat advisory.

Clouds increase late this afternoon from southwest to northeast as sfc winds back to the south and warm air and moisture advection increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Guidance remains in good agreement that the majority of the incoming rain and possible thunderstorms hold off until after 21 UTC but given the strong dynamics, forcing for ascent, and moisture fetch, rain may arrive a few hours earlier than high res guidance suggests so we still introduce likely POPs for the mid- Hudson Valley, the eastern Catskills, and Litchfield County by 21 - 00 UTC.

We continue to closely monitor this evening from 00 - 06 UTC Thursday for a period of potentially more impactful weather mainly south of I-90, including periods of moderate to heavy rain and damaging winds gusts from strong to severe thunderstorms. The aforementioned potent shortwave from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will continue amplifying, even taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt, with increasingly stronger height falls occurring downstream. The Northeast will be positioned in the favorable equatorward entrance region on the anti-cyclonic side of 300hPa jet reaching 100 - 110kts. This will support increasing upper level divergence and the development of a sfc low along the incoming cold front as it tracks through west/central NY this evening. The front will feature a tight thermal and moisture gradient with a notable wind core in the 850 - 700hPa layer immediately ahead of the front reaching 40 - 50kts advecting a rich plume of PWATs nearing 2" into the mid-Hudson Valley and southern New England.

While this event will occur in the evening and past peak heating, dew points in the 60s in this region should contribute to sufficient instability to support thunderstorm activity with SB CAPE values ranging 500 - 1500J/kg. Such a strong moisture fetch, low-level convergence along the boundary/theta-e gradient, and forcing for ascent including mid- level FGEN in an environment with high freezing heights ~13kft will easily support very efficient warm rain processes and potential for high rainfall rates. Along the leading edge of the incoming cold front, a period of high rainfall rates is looking likely for areas mainly south of I-90 as an area of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms overspreads the region.
In fact, HRRR probabilistic guidance shows a swatch of 15 - 30% for 3-hourly rainfall amounts >2" and 70 - 80% probabilities for >1" in 3 hours across Ulster, Dutchess, Litchfield, southern Columbia/Berkshire County from 00 - 03 UTC Thurs. Fast mid- level winds means the heavy rain should be progressive so high rainfall rates should only last for a few hours this evening but could still result in a quick 1-2" of rain resulting in some poor drainage or urban flooding. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out and WPC maintains its marginal risk for excessive rainfall noting this event is on the higher end of its marginal risk category.

Besides the heavy rain potential, the storms along the leading edge of the cold front may grow upscale as the reach the moisture rich environment where sfc - 6km shear values ranging 40-45kts can help storms organize into cluster or even bowing segments. Damaging winds is the primary hazard from any severe storms and SPC maintains its "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in Dutchess, Ulster, and southern Greene County.

Since the period for high rainfall rates and potential severe weather is mainly along the leading edge of the incoming cold front during the evening hours, the window for any flooding or damaging winds is rather short-lived and should end by 03 - 06 UTC. After this time, a period of stratiform rain will likely follow after Midnight with temperatures cooling into the mid 50 to low 60s as drier air advects eastward and rain winds down shortly before sunrise from west to east. Total rainfall amounts range 0.50 to 2 inches with highest amounts in the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield County.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Cooler and tranquil weather follows for Thursday into Friday thanks to subsidence building across the Northeast in the wake of the departing shortwave. Some lingering clouds and morning showers Thursday, especially in the high terrain areas, will diminish by midday into the afternoon as the upper level trough axis shifts eastward. A tight sfc pressure gradient develops over the Northeast between an incoming high to our west and departing sfc low and results in gusty winds reaching up to 25kts. The strongest winds likely occur down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into Berkshire County. Otherwise, cool air advection may support some lake effect rain showers that spill into the western Adirondacks but the valley should remain dry as skies give way to increasing sun through the afternoon.
Daytime highs should reach into the mid to upper 70s with low 80s in the mid-Hudson valley. Cooler in the mid to upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks and southern VT.

Expect chilly temperatures Thursday night as skies remain clear and winds turning calm supports ideal radiational cooling. Overnight lows drop into the low 50s in the valley with mid to upper 40s in the hill towns and high terrain. The higher peaks of the southern Adirondacks may even approach 40.

High pressure builds over the Northeast for Friday giving us a beautiful and seasonably cool day. Expect abundant sunshine and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s with rather low dew points by late June standard. Luckily winds will be much lighter. Clouds return Friday night which will keep temperatures milder with lows only in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chances for showers approach out western zones late Friday night but the higher probabilities hold off until daytime Saturday ahead of our next disturbance.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Unsettled conditions return for the weekend, as an upper level trough and surface low approach from the Great Lakes region. A warm front associated with this system looks to bring showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night, with scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Sunday as the system's cold front tracks through the region. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Saturday-Saturday night as 00Z/26 GEFs suggest PWAT's increase to 1.5-2 inches (+2 to +3 SD).

A trailing upper level disturbance could bring isolated showers/thunderstorms to portions of the region Monday, with fair weather returning by Tuesday.

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and again Monday with highs mainly in the mid 70s to around 80. Seasonable warmth is expected Sunday and Tuesday, with highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s. Overnight lows will be warm Saturday night, mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, then cooling into the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday/Monday night, with some 40s possible across higher elevations.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z/Thu...mainly VFR conditions are expected through at least mid afternoon, although there could be borderline MVFR Cigs for a brief time between 13Z-16Z/Wed at KALB and KPSF.

Later this afternoon, scattered showers/thunderstorms may develop at KPOU, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected after 00Z/Thu at KALB, KPOU and KPSF as a wave of low pressure tracks just south of the region. Occasional MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs will be possible within any heavier showers/thunderstorms this evening. The best chance of thunderstorms will be at KPOU and KPSF between 01Z-05Z/Thu, lower chances of thunderstorms at KALB during this time.

After the initial showers/thunderstorms, a period of steady light to moderate rain is possible before ending from NW to SE between 06Z-10Z/Thu. However, low stratus clouds may develop in the wake of the rainfall, which could lead to MVFR/IFR Cigs and MVFR Vsbys. Should any clearing develop, patchy ground fog could quickly form.

South to southwest winds 5-10 KT with a few gusts of 15-20 KT through mid morning will then shift into the west by late morning at similar speeds/gusts. West to northwest winds will decrease to less than 5 KT toward and after sunset, although may become southeast at KPOU around 5 KT. Winds will be mainly light/variable overnight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction near and within any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 3 mi59 minWSW 1 82°F 29.7165°F
TKPN6 4 mi59 minS 8G9.9 79°F 78°F29.7468°F
NPXN6 16 mi59 minS 7 81°F 29.7466°F


Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPOU30 sm35 minWSW 0510 smClear82°F64°F55%29.74
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Wind History graph: POU
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Tide / Current for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
   
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:46 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:36 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.8
2
am
1.9
3
am
3.1
4
am
4.1
5
am
4.5
6
am
4.6
7
am
4.4
8
am
3.6
9
am
2.5
10
am
1.3
11
am
0.5
12
pm
-0
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
2.9
5
pm
3.6
6
pm
4
7
pm
4.1
8
pm
3.7
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
1.8
11
pm
1.1


Tide / Current for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:06 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
1.2
2
am
2.4
3
am
3.4
4
am
4.1
5
am
4.4
6
am
4.3
7
am
3.8
8
am
2.9
9
am
1.8
10
am
0.8
11
am
0.2
12
pm
-0.1
1
pm
0.2
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
3.6
6
pm
3.8
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3.1
9
pm
2.2
10
pm
1.3
11
pm
0.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Albany, NY,




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