Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pistol River, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:05PM Thursday February 27, 2020 2:04 AM PST (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 840 Pm Pst Wed Feb 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. Mixed swell W 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds and W 4 to 5 ft at 17 seconds... Building to 9 ft at 16 seconds after midnight.
Thu..N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 10 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 20 to 25 kt northern portion and N 10 to 20 kt southern portion. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 7 to 8 ft.
Fri night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft. Slight chance of rain through the night.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 11 to 14 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Sat night..NW wind 10 kt...veering to N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft after midnight. NW swell 11 to 12 ft. Chance of showers through the night.
Sun..N wind 25 kt...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 9 to 10 ft.
Mon..NW wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then... Becoming 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 7 to 8 ft.
PZZ300 840 Pm Pst Wed Feb 26 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate north winds and building west swell will generate steep seas south of cape blanco tonight through Thursday night. Conditions will improve briefly Friday, then a cold front will move onshore Friday night. High and steep seas will persist through this weekend because of the active weather pattern.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pistol River, OR
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location: 42.07, -126.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 270539 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 939 PM PST Wed Feb 26 2020

Updated Aviation Section.

DISCUSSION. The marine layer is mostly offshore this evening, except it is hugging the immediate coast near Cape Arago, where it'll likely remain overnight. Offshore flow is redeveloping south of Cape Blanco, so expect it to stay clear there overnight. Some low clouds/patchy fog could develop in the Umpqua Valley toward sunrise, but these should be short-lived. Other than some high clouds inland, it'll be another clear and chilly night with the lowest temperatures down in the teens and low 20s east of the Cascades/northern CA.

After the chilly start, another sunny, warm late February afternoon is expected Thursday with highs again widely in the 60s. Some readings near 70 are possible in the inland west side valleys south of the Umpqua Divide. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected in the lower Klamath River Valley of SW Siskiyou County. We're going with a high of 69 degrees here in Medford; and 60-64 degrees in Roseburg, Klamath Falls, Lakeview and Alturas. -Spilde

AVIATION. For the 27/06Z TAF Cycle . VFR ceilings/visibility will continue through the TAF period. The exception will be in portions of the Umpqua Basin and along the Coast. Low ceilings and fog will be possible in these locations tonight. If fog and low stratus is able to form LIFR conditions are possible around the locations mentioned above. Otherwise the fog and stratus should clear up pretty quickly after sunrise and VFR conditions will prevail shortly after sunrise as the boundary layer dries out.

-Smith

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Wednesday 26 Feb 2020 . Moderate north winds and building west swell will generate steep seas south of Cape Blanco across all the waters late tonight through Thursday night. Conditions will improve briefly Friday, then a cold front will move onshore Friday night. The front Friday night doesn't look strong, so seas will remain swell dominated through Saturday. Strong north winds are expected Sunday and seas will likely increase to 10 feet with a shorter period as wind waves become more dominant. The active weather pattern will likely continue into next week as a thermal trough forms builds up the coast yet again.

-Smith

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 850 PM PST Wed Feb 26 2020/

SHORT TERM . (Tonight through Saturday night) Satellite imagery are showing mainly clear skies across southern Oregon and northern California. For those of you in the Rogue Valley looking west of Talent/Ashland seeing that large plume of smoke, it is visible on the visible imagery, but other indicators traditionally used on other satellite channels are not showing up. Overall, the benign weather will continue through Friday morning with tonight being similar to last night, and tomorrow morning to be another chilly one with low clouds expected in the Illinois, Umpqua and Coquille Valleys.

A front will then come in Friday afternoon, moistening up the atmosphere, and bringing in some light precipitation to the Coast, Coast Range and areas north of the Umpqua Divide. This front will be accompanied with several impulses, with the second impulse (short wave) bringing in another wave of moisture and bring precipitation to more areas west of the Cascades on Friday night into Saturday. This front will continue to dig southward before becoming a closed upper level low pressure system as we transition into the long term discussion. This will keep allowing waves of light precipitation to move across southern Oregon and northern California.

In the mean time, this frontal system will be ushering in colder air into our forecast area. This will also cause snow levels to lower from 6000 feet on Friday to 4000 feet on Friday night to 2500 feet or so on Saturday to around 1500 feet on Saturday night. This means that there will be a chance for a few flakes on the Valley Floors in snow showers on Saturday night, but impactful snow is not expected for the Valley Floors at this time. Snow amounts on the passes will be up to 2 inches on some of the higher passes with more of a dusting on the lower passes. Overall, this system does not appear to be impactful at this time, but keep an eye on the forecast in case things change. -Schaaf

LONG TERM . Sun 30 Feb through Wed 03 Mar 2020.

A long wave trough will be over the west coast states at the beginning of the extended, supporting a post-frontal showery scenario. However, the showers will be light, with most of the west side seeing light precipitation and most east side locations likely seeing trace or no precipitation.

The trough will dig into the intermountain states and shear Sunday into Sunday night, leaving a cutoff low over southern California Sunday night. During this evolution, the flow aloft over the Medford CWA will become northeasterly. Showers will end Sunday and the low level flow will turn easterly, drying out the air mass.

The easterly flow event will be short-lived, as a short wave will ride over the offshore ridge, moving onshore Monday. The associated front will be quite weak, and it will also move onshore Monday. Once again, the precipitation will be light and most of it will fall from the Cascades west. Post-frontal showers will spread to the east side Monday night into Tuesday. Curiously enough, the NBM output suggests that the precipitation will be heavier with this front over inland locations west of the Cascades, perhaps because this front will linger over the area with showers persisting into Tuesday night. Still, the precipitation will be light. This trough will also dig into the intermountain states Tuesday night, but it won't shear, continuing to progress east. Flow aloft over the Medford CWA will remain northwesterly with a strong long wave ridge offshore through the remainder of the extended period.

The deterministic GFS and EC solutions differ a bit from Tuesday night on, as the GFS brings another short wave over the ridge onshore Tuesday night, while the EC has no short wave activity. Accordingly, the GFS supports continued shower activity into Wednesday while the EC dries things out. Going with FB here, which went with a compromise solution here.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-370.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR118 mi68 minN 00.25 miLight Rain Fog44°F44°F100%1028 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NW4S3SW3CalmSE5SE3S3SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3E3E3CalmCalmNW3CalmW6S6S3NW5S4SE5SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE7W3W5CalmNE7NW4W4CalmW5W5W55NW5NW5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.