Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:18 PM   Moonset 4:23 AM

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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 249 Am Pdt Sat Apr 20 2024
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning - .
Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kt - .backing to S 10 to 15 kt in the morning, then - .veering to W early in the afternoon - .veering to nw late afternoon. Wind waves less than 2 ft - .becoming W 3 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SWell S 2 ft at 14 seconds and W 2 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.Tonight - Northern portion, nw wind 10 to 15 kt - . Veering to N early in the morning. Southern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds - .building to 6 ft at 13 seconds after midnight. Sun - Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt - .rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Southern portion, N wind 20 to 25 kt - .rising to 30 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves N 5 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds - .building to 7 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Sun night - N wind 30 kt. Wind waves ne 10 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Mon - N wind 30 kt. Wind waves N 12 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds. Mon night - N wind 30 kt - .easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 11 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 11 seconds. Tue - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves N 5 ft at 7 seconds. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Wed - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 10 seconds.

PZZ300 249 Am Pdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Light winds and seas continue through tonight. A weak front will result in increasing south winds early this morning, then winds will shift to west late in the day. High pressure offshore and a thermal trough near shore will result in gusty northerly winds Sunday into Monday with gales and small craft and the strongest winds and steepest seas south of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 201015 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 315 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

DISCUSSION
The forecast remains fairly the same since yesterday, with only a few minor changes, mainly in regards to precipitation and thunderstorm chances midweek.

Dry conditions will continue today for most of the area. A weak front will push into the region Saturday and flatten the ridge Saturday night into Sunday. This front will run into a pretty dry air mass, so not much precipitation is expected for the area. The best chances for accumulating precipitation will be along the coast (40%-70%), in the Umpqua Basin (20%-30%) and along the Cascades from Crater Lake northward (20%-40%). Even the areas that do receive precipitation are only expected to measure around 0.10"-0.20" west of the Coast Range with only a few hundreths expected elsewhere. The remainder of the area will likely remain dry with some increased cloud cover and gusty winds across the region. Widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades with gusts of 15 to 25 mph expected for areas west of the Cascades.

The front shifts east of the area Saturday night with high pressure building in on Sunday/Monday. Frost/freezing conditions are possible during this period of dry weather during the late nights/early mornings in the valleys west of the Cascades. It will only be nominally cooler on Sunday, with high temperatures closer to normal across NW sections, but remaining at least a few degrees above normal elsewhere. Monday will warm up substantially (up 5-10 F over Sunday). Another thermal trough will strengthen in NorCal resulting in another round of N-NE winds late Sunday through Monday. This should even bring the milder weather to portions of the SW coast (including Brookings). The remainder of the work week looks more active.

Tuesday, the upper trough axis remains west of the forecast area, but there's enough evidence to suggest increasing instability along with a weak trigger Tuesday afternoon and early evening and could be enough to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms in the area, particularly over Siskiyou and Modoc counties and southern portions of the Oregon East Side Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

We'll catch a break Tuesday night with weak upper troughing over our area, but energy is pretty weak so were not expecting precipitation.

Wednesday, upper troughing remains and instability will once again increase during the day. There remains quite a bit of difference across the ensembles by this point, but the general pattern suggests that showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will once again develop over northern California and the East Side, with light showers mainly along northern Coos and northwest Douglas counties as the upper level trough swings overhead and onshore flow is enhanced.

Upper troughiness remains over our area the rest of next week which will result in cooler temperatures and a higher chance for showers over a good portion of the forecast area.
-BR-y/Petrucelli/BPN

AVIATION
20/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions under clear skies and with light winds continue overnight and into Saturday morning. On Saturday afternoon, a weak front will bring light showers along the Oregon coast and gusty winds over higher elevations, especially east of the Cascades. Periods of MVFR ceilings and impaired visibilities under showers are possible, especially along the Oregon coast. VFR levels will continue in other areas. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 300 AM Saturday, April 19, 2024...A weak cold front will bring increasing south winds early this morning, but they are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels. The front will move inland by the afternoon with winds becoming westerly behind it.

On Sunday, high pressure will be offshore and a thermal trough will set up along the south coast. North winds increase across the waters early Sunday with moderate to strong winds possibly reaching gale force south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Monday. These gusty winds will result in steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the waters.

Conditions are likely to improve Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of the next cold front on Wednesday night into Thursday.
-DW/Hermansen



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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