Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:10 PM EDT (02:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 12:42PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 349 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots. A few gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon. Mostly Sunny through midnight then becoming clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing north in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 57 degrees...and 66 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201908230415;;047221 FZUS53 KIWX 221949 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 349 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-230415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 222325
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
725 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 723 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
high pressure will continue to build across the great lakes region
and will bring nearly picture perfect weather to our area. Expect
dry conditions through the weekend with comfortable temperatures
and humidity levels. Chances for rain return late Sunday night.

High temperatures will be in the 70s through Sunday and lows will
be in the 50s. Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on
southern lake michigan Friday with high wave action and dangerous
currents expected at the beaches.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 422 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
fairly quiet weather in the short term, with mainly dry conditions
expected through Friday. The cold front responsible for rain showers
south and east of us 24 today will continue to drift southward
tonight, with surface high pressure building in over lake
superior. The resulting nne winds will filter down across lake
michigan late this afternoon and overnight, building waves up to
around 3 to 5 feet.

As of 4 pm, waves have already climbed to 2 to 3 feet in berrien
county, mi and just over 4 feet in laporte county, in. Have
issued a small craft advisory and a beach hazards statement for
the laporte county waters beaches. Waves in this area will
approach the shore at at 30 to 60 degree angle, with a period of 5
to 6 seconds. Dangerous currents, particularly longshore and
structural currents, are expected in conditions like these.

Further north in berrien county, mi kept the moderate swim risk
for now. Expecting waves to be slightly lower (up to 4 feet later
tonight) and wave angles of approach are 30 degrees or less
relative to shore-which makes strong offshore flowing currents
less likely. That being said, if conditions worsen may need to
upgrade berrien county to a high swim risk and issue a beach
hazards statement. It is likely we extend the beach hazards
statement and small craft advisory through late Friday evening, as
waves only drop to around 2 feet late Friday morning before
climbing back up to around 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Will
leave this decision to the evening midnight shifts when confidence
may be higher.

Surface high pressure dry air should keep things dry Friday
afternoon, but some of the models indicate we could see a few pop up
showers storms in the afternoon on Friday (18z-00z-ish)as the main
axis of an upper level trough swings through during peak heating.

For now, left the forecast dry given low confidence. Highs will be
in the 70s.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 422 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
surface high pressure prevails through Sunday night, so expect clear
to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. High temperatures will
range from the low 70s to around 80f. Lows Friday night into
Saturday night will drop into the low to mid 50s.

The next chances for precipitation start Monday, especially towards
the afternoon hours. An upper level low will traverse the canadian
prairie Monday and drag a trough into the great lakes by Tuesday.

The low becomes vertically stacked southwest of hudson bay Tuesday
afternoon and evening, then settles over the bay Thursday into
Friday. This will bring a trough through mo ia il in Monday into
Tuesday. At the surface, the GFS brings a surface low up from mo
into il in before it is absorbed into the stronger wave to the
north. This lifts a warm front associated with this low northward
through our CWA Monday, and then the trailing cold front with the
stronger system to the north through our forecast area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. There are a few discrepancies between models with
respect to the placement of the northern stream low and the strength
of the low to our southwest. The ECMWF is weaker with the upper
level low to our north (hudson bay area) and the strength of the
trough extending into mo ia il in. At the surface (to our
southwest), there is just a trough. The GFS takes the northern upper
low further north and then develops a separate closed low over
western lake superior Tuesday morning, and digs the trough further
south and east. This develops the surface low to our southwest. So
what does this all mean? There are slight differences in timing of
the initial precipitation Monday (gfs starts Sunday night, ecmwf
late Monday morning in the southwest). The cold front timing is
pretty consistent Tuesday into Tuesday night, but the strength of
the front and the amount of precipitation is greater with the gfs.

All this in mind, I kept the consensus pops Mon Tuesday, with a
diminishing trend from west to east through Tuesday evening.

Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions return late Tuesday night and
linger through Wednesday with another surface high building in
behind the front. Thursday we could see some chances for rain
depending on strength of the both the next wave rotating around the
low in hudson bay, and the incoming high pressure over the northern
plains. ECMWF holds off until Friday afternoon to bring the surface
cold front and subsequent precipitation chances in, but the gfs
brings the front through on Thursday morning. Kept low chance pops
in for now. Highs Monday into Thursday will be in the 70s and low
80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. With gusty west to northwest
winds behind the front Tuesday afternoon into Thursday, a moderate
swim risk is possible for lake michigan beaches.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 721 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
vfr through the period as high pressure moves into the area. Winds
generally from northeast around 5 kts or less tonight and 5 to 9
knots on Friday.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Beach hazards statement through Friday morning for inz003.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for lmz046.

Synopsis... Lashley
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Lashley
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi71 min NNE 7 G 14 71°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.3)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi31 min N 16 G 19 72°F 75°F3 ft1017.2 hPa57°F
45168 24 mi31 min NNW 16 G 19 71°F 74°F4 ft1017.6 hPa53°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi41 min NNE 13 G 17 69°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi41 min NNE 19 G 21 71°F 57°F
45170 34 mi31 min NNE 16 G 19 72°F 75°F5 ft59°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi58 min NNE 11 G 14 71°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi18 minENE 410.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1017.6 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair63°F54°F73%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4E7E7E8E8566664--5E3NE4
1 day agoS4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3W6W11W7W9W10W10W11SW12N4W8W7NW743
2 days agoSE3E4CalmCalmSE3S4S5S3SE4S5CalmSW4S3S7S6SW4SW8W10
G20
3NE6E6E6SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.