Fair Plain, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

June 13, 2024 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 9:21 PM
Moonrise 12:09 PM   Moonset 12:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 337 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

.severe Thunderstorm watch 408 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening - .

Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 62 degrees.

LMZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 131920 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from 4 PM to midnight EDT tonight, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Additional hazards include hail 1-2" in diameter and a brief, isolated tornado or two.

- A long duration heat wave begins on Sunday, June 16th. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices upwards of 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father's Day through at least the middle of next week! Can't rule out a few low chances (20% or less) for showers and storms but this timeframe looks mainly dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Stay weather aware late this afternoon and evening as strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for much of our area. GOES satellite imagery this afternoon shows ongoing clearing for much of the lower Great Lakes.
There is also a growing field of developing cumulus near Chicago out ahead of the cold front that is currently over SE Wisconsin and NW Illinois. High temperatures will approach the low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Moderate MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg combined with ~40 kts of shear orthogonal to the aforementioned frontal boundary will result in a favorable environment for severe weather tonight. As the cold front and attendant shortwave trough sweep eastward, storms should initiate between 4 to 6 PM EDT over Lake Michigan and far southwest Lower Michigan. These initial discrete cells could merge into clusters/a QLCS as they grow upscale, although the latest hi-res model guidance still differs in the coverage and intensity of this convection. Expect storms to move south/southeastward throughout the evening hours. Our southeast CWA may see additional storm development after 8 PM EDT as an MCS develops in northern/central Illinois.
As storms initially develop late this afternoon, they may pose an initial threat for hail, but as storms grow upscale, the primary concern will become damaging winds. Inverted-v HRRR, RAP, and NAM soundings have 800-1100 J/kg of DCAPE, indicating a favorable environment for damaging downburst winds. Throughout the event, damaging winds 60-70 mph will be the main threat across much of the area, but hail 1-2" in diameter, torrential rain, and a brief, isolated tornado or two are all possible as well. In addition, PWAT values are around 1.5 to 1.75", which is near the 90th percentile for this time of the year. This could bode very efficient rainfall rates and some localized flooding potential as well this evening (especially in the SW CWA where additional storm development is possible). Most storms should dissipate before midnight EDT, but a few may linger in the SW CWA as late as 3 AM EDT Friday.

Friday and Saturday look to be slightly 'cooler' (highs upper 70s to mid 80s) and dry in the wake of the cold front. However, starting Sunday, the first prolonged stretch of hot and humid summer days will begin! An early season heatwave is likely, with high confidence in near record temperatures and increasing humidity. Surface high pressure and impressive upper level ridging will build across much of the eastern CONUS this weekend, setting the stage for a 'heat dome' to set up. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices pushing 100 to 105 degrees starting on Father's Day through at least the middle of next week! Near record overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will offer little to no relief from the heat. This is the typical summertime "Ring of Fire" pattern for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions where any clusters of storms can develop and tend to ride around the periphery of the heat dome. For the next 3 to 7 days, subsidence should keep precipitation chances at bay, with only a few low chances (20% or less) for rain/storms).

There is growing confidence that Heat Advisories or even an Excessive Heat Warning may be need for next week. Prepare now for the incoming heat wave next week! Those without AC, elderly or young children, or who are susceptible to heat may be especially vulnerable. Find out where cooler shelters are in your town, stay hydrated, and prepare to limit activities outdoor during peak heating hours.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

An active TAF period is anticipated amid the risk for severe thunderstorms, especially at KSBN. Cumulus clouds are developing over Illinois and southern Michigan ahead of a cold front located near the WI-IA-IL lines. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Michigan state line and drop south.
Strong wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain are the primary concerns.

Synoptic wind gusts abate behind these thunderstorms, through wind gradually veers through the night behind the cold front.
There is a non-zero chance of MVFR ceilings tonight amid post- frontal stratus. Probabilities are generally near 30% or so, per the in-house blend. Therefore, retained the mention at KSBN but avoided the introduction of such ceilings at KFWA for the time being. Satellite trends will be monitored.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi52 minSSW 12G15 79°F 29.88
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 10 mi42 minW 7.8G9.7 72°F 66°F1 ft29.8763°F
45168 24 mi42 minSW 5.8G7.8 67°F 62°F2 ft29.8561°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi32 minS 8.9G8.9 70°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi32 minNW 13G14 80°F 29.7965°F
45170 34 mi42 minSW 7.8G12 73°F 1 ft29.86
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi72 minSW 9.9G12 85°F 29.85


Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI 5 sm59 minSW 13G2310 smA Few Clouds90°F66°F46%29.84
KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI 23 sm17 minWSW 10G1710 smOvercast82°F64°F55%29.84
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Wind History graph: BEH
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Northern Indiana, IN,




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