Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI
March 29, 2024 5:16 AM EDT (09:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:29 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:20 AM |
LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 451 Am Edt Fri Mar 29 2024
Today - North winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - South winds around 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 43 degrees and at michigan city is 41 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 43 degrees and at michigan city is 41 degrees.
LMZ005
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KIWX 290905 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 505 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into early next week.
- Heavy rain and non-zero chances for strong to locally severe storms exists Sunday afternoon through Monday night.
- Large variations in above normal temperatures expected through most of the period, before trending colder.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 502 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Through Saturday night.
Ridging from the north will briefly take hold today, leading to a good deal of sunshine and warmer temperatures. The focus then shifts to the northward return of the warm front and a much stronger surge of theta-e moisture into central/northern Indiana as 40 kt LLJ noses in with increasing lift along and north of the front. Arrival of showers has been slowed slightly this evening, but a rapid uptick in coverage should commence after 3Z and focus in the 6-12Z Sat time frame. Some elevated instability will be edge in, but the greatest focus will remain well west of the area. Will therefore maintain the mention of thunder. Models still varying on how far north the boundary works and final layout of greatest QPF potential. Most signals still point towards our forecast area being lined up for the best chance of 0.5-0.75" of rain, but some hints that this could push further north. WPC QPF continues to wobble north and south with each run and at this point will just ride with it. Next challenge is how fast the rain departs on Saturday and is there any redevelopment on the cold front. ECMWF has been the only model to stay on the much slower side of the low tracking east, with higher pops suggested well through the morning then tapering in the afternoon. Still skeptical on this lone solution being what occurs, but after collaboration with surrounding offices have kept higher pops east in the morning then taper off in the afternoon (limited to far SE). A large temperature gradient is likely Saturday depending on final outcome of precip, cloud cover and location of the warm front.
Sunday through Monday night.
The deep SW states trough will begin work east through this period, with northern stream energy coming into the picture. The frontal boundary that will reside south of the area will work back north somewhat and then become stationary as a series of disturbances rich in moisture, translate across the area.
Signals seem to suggest an area from northern IL SE across the southern third to half of our forecast area and points SE lining up for the best chance for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with localized QPF totals in the 1 to maybe 3 inch range. A non zero threat for elevated strong to locally severe storms exists Sunday night as nose of a strong EML and associated steep lapse rates allows stronger storms to possibly produce hail. SPC DY3 outlook as placed areas along/S of US-30 in a marginal risk.
This could easily shift north or south in the coming days so we will need to monitor trends. Stronger wave arrives late Mon into Monday night when the greatest risk for heavy rain and maybe severe weather could materialize as much better dynamics arrive. Have left rather broadbrushed pops through this entire period, but quite likely adjustments will occur as we get closer to each event.
Tuesday through Thursday.
The northern and southern stream systems will be undergoing phasing around of this period, with an surge of colder air arriving and, sadly, at least a window for some snow (including a period of lake effect). Way too much going on before this so limited focus, but yet another element to sort out.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions with light and somewhat variable winds are expected at the TAF sites. Surface high pressure over the terminals will keep both sites dry, with mainly high cloud cover to contend with. Towards the end of the period, a warm front will lift northward and bring us chances for rain showers. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question, especially after 6z, however left out of the TAF for now given lower confidence on timing and extent of coverage.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 505 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into early next week.
- Heavy rain and non-zero chances for strong to locally severe storms exists Sunday afternoon through Monday night.
- Large variations in above normal temperatures expected through most of the period, before trending colder.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 502 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Through Saturday night.
Ridging from the north will briefly take hold today, leading to a good deal of sunshine and warmer temperatures. The focus then shifts to the northward return of the warm front and a much stronger surge of theta-e moisture into central/northern Indiana as 40 kt LLJ noses in with increasing lift along and north of the front. Arrival of showers has been slowed slightly this evening, but a rapid uptick in coverage should commence after 3Z and focus in the 6-12Z Sat time frame. Some elevated instability will be edge in, but the greatest focus will remain well west of the area. Will therefore maintain the mention of thunder. Models still varying on how far north the boundary works and final layout of greatest QPF potential. Most signals still point towards our forecast area being lined up for the best chance of 0.5-0.75" of rain, but some hints that this could push further north. WPC QPF continues to wobble north and south with each run and at this point will just ride with it. Next challenge is how fast the rain departs on Saturday and is there any redevelopment on the cold front. ECMWF has been the only model to stay on the much slower side of the low tracking east, with higher pops suggested well through the morning then tapering in the afternoon. Still skeptical on this lone solution being what occurs, but after collaboration with surrounding offices have kept higher pops east in the morning then taper off in the afternoon (limited to far SE). A large temperature gradient is likely Saturday depending on final outcome of precip, cloud cover and location of the warm front.
Sunday through Monday night.
The deep SW states trough will begin work east through this period, with northern stream energy coming into the picture. The frontal boundary that will reside south of the area will work back north somewhat and then become stationary as a series of disturbances rich in moisture, translate across the area.
Signals seem to suggest an area from northern IL SE across the southern third to half of our forecast area and points SE lining up for the best chance for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with localized QPF totals in the 1 to maybe 3 inch range. A non zero threat for elevated strong to locally severe storms exists Sunday night as nose of a strong EML and associated steep lapse rates allows stronger storms to possibly produce hail. SPC DY3 outlook as placed areas along/S of US-30 in a marginal risk.
This could easily shift north or south in the coming days so we will need to monitor trends. Stronger wave arrives late Mon into Monday night when the greatest risk for heavy rain and maybe severe weather could materialize as much better dynamics arrive. Have left rather broadbrushed pops through this entire period, but quite likely adjustments will occur as we get closer to each event.
Tuesday through Thursday.
The northern and southern stream systems will be undergoing phasing around of this period, with an surge of colder air arriving and, sadly, at least a window for some snow (including a period of lake effect). Way too much going on before this so limited focus, but yet another element to sort out.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions with light and somewhat variable winds are expected at the TAF sites. Surface high pressure over the terminals will keep both sites dry, with mainly high cloud cover to contend with. Towards the end of the period, a warm front will lift northward and bring us chances for rain showers. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question, especially after 6z, however left out of the TAF for now given lower confidence on timing and extent of coverage.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 25 mi | 36 min | ESE 1.9G | 33°F | ||||
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 33 mi | 46 min | S 1.9G | 37°F | 30.06 | 27°F | ||
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 46 mi | 36 min | 0G | 40°F | 30.06 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 5 sm | 23 min | calm | 4 sm | Clear | Mist | 27°F | 21°F | 80% | 30.05 |
KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 23 sm | 21 min | calm | 7 sm | Clear | 23°F | 21°F | 93% | 30.06 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE