Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:19PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 36% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1017 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Overnight..South wind 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear through midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 76 and at st. Joseph is 75 degrees.
LMZ043 Expires:202007141015;;811104 FZUS53 KIWX 140217 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1017 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-046-141015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 140512 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 112 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Pleasant weather expected through Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night will bring a chance for thunderstorms to the area. These storms could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorms chances will be possible Thursday through Sunday, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Fairly benign weather expected for the next 36 hours under building high pressure aloft. This will result in afternoon high temperatures gradually warming from the lower 80s today to the mid to upper 80s. Each afternoon will also see fair weather CU develop around peak heating.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Next chance for active weather comes Wednesday night as an upper low lifts across the area from the central Plains. The NAM/CMC/GFS are similar in trough strength while the ECMWF is a little more broad and focuses best coverage just north of the area. With that being said, showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and couldn't rule out a few lingering storms Thursday morning.

Looking at severe weather potential for this system, there is plenty of shear and curvature in forecast hodographs to promote organized convection. The question is: will there be enough available instability for storms to develop vigorous updrafts? Timing also plays into this uncertainty given the persistent delaying trend with each model cycle. In fact, 12z model guidance shows convection struggling to reach the western border before 00z. Also mid-level lapse rates are shown to be in the 5-5.5 C/km range which will limit instability. Slightly better mid-level lapse rates move shortly after 06z, but at that point we are starting to get on the backside of the upper trough. So severe weather is possible, but forecast confidence is low given the previous mentioned negatives.

Behind the upper trough, the pattern becomes more zonal Thursday through Friday. This will keep the area open to chances for additional rainfall as embedded shortwaves propagate eastwards each day. At this point the chances for severe weather is low due to timing differences of the various shortwaves.

For this weekend, models have trended towards bringing the suppressed southwestern US high back east and will place the forecast area on the periphery of the high. The current placement wouldn't be sufficiently under the high to prevent convection so have kept close to a model blend for POPs. As the high builds, high temperatures each day will be capable of reaching into the lower to mid-90s. In addition to the warmer temperatures, humidity will also build to show a chance for afternoon heat index values back in the upper 90s to near the century mark.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

VFR conditions prevail. Clear skies tonight with a few fair weather cu possible again in the afternoon. Winds becoming light and variable overnight with high pressure overhead. SSE winds by late morning as high moves east.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . CM SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . Cobb

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi61 min Calm G 1.9 64°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.3)
45168 24 mi21 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 63°F 66°F1 ft1016 hPa58°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi31 min ENE 1 G 1 64°F
45170 34 mi31 min 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 77°F1 ft62°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi68 minE 38.00 mi58°F57°F97%1015.8 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair57°F56°F99%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5N654--NW7NW10
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NW8NW6NW63CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3
1 day agoS3SE3SW3CalmNW3NW4Calm4--5N7
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N8N8--3333Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW8NW644656NW9NW7W12W11W9
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W7NW9W8W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.