Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 8:12PM Thursday April 2, 2020 2:17 PM EDT (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:42PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1010 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing east in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight. Slight chance of showers through midnight, then chance of showers after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. The water temperature off michigan city is 41 and 44 degrees at st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:202004022215;;458119 FZUS53 KIWX 021410 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1010 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-046-022215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 021737 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 137 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 1149 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Mostly sunny skies for today, along with warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, except cooler near Lake Michigan. Clouds increase late tonight into Friday. The next chance of rain showers is Friday night into Saturday. Rain chances diminish from northwest to southeast late Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will remain mild into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Satellite imagery/sfc observations continue to indicate expanding coverage of dense fog this morning, with greatest coverage roughly west of a line from Three Rivers MI to Mishawaka IN to Winamac IN at 0730Z. Areas of dense fog appear to be most prevalent for locations which experienced inland advection of marine layer yesterday. Otherwise, radiational cooling conditions have resulted in sporadic fog formation across the remainder of the forecast area this morning, but not expecting these locations to experience widespread dense fog. An additional eastward tier of counties may be needed for the current dense fog advisory across northwest Indiana/southwest Lower Michigan however. Expecting vsbys will improve fairly quickly after 13Z or 14Z, but lower vsbys may linger a bit longer for Lake Michigan nearshore waters. Otherwise for today, low level ridge axis will track across the area providing generally light winds and mostly sunny skies. Decent amount of insolation this afternoon and continued moderation of low level thermal profiles should support high temps from the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon. Quiet weather continues tonight with increasing clouds, particularly across western portions of the area as weak perturbations progress through the approaching, slow moving upper level ridge axis.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

Upper level wave pattern will be slow to evolve into Friday with upper ridging persisting across the Great Lakes region. Low level thermal ridge should be more closely positioned to local area on Friday, but greater mid level cloud coverage should partially offset this resulting in high temperatures just slightly warmer on Friday into the lower 60s for most locations.

For Friday night into Saturday attention will turn to upper level short wave trough currently working its way across the Pacific northwest. Guidance continues to indicate a stable, blocking downstream wave pattern shunting this wave to the northeast across western Ontario by Saturday morning. As a result, the associated low level trough will likely have a slow eastward progression across the Great Lakes region Saturday into early Sunday. This evolution should tend to pinch off better deeper moisture across the southern Great Lakes, with better moisture profiles persisting into Saturday night across the Ohio Valley more divorced from this forcing. Will continue to carry high chance/low likely PoPs on Saturday across western/central portions of the forecast area, with lesser confidence in rain chances east of Interstate 69. Still some uncertainty regarding longevity of rain chances Saturday night into Sunday with a potential of the low level trough to slow a bit more from current indications, but have continued trend of previous forecast in keeping PoPs on the low side by late Saturday night into Sunday given diminishing forcing and uncertainties in timing the low level trough. While an isolated thunderstorm is possible south of Route 24 Saturday, opted to continue to hold off on mention with generally modest mid level lapse rates.

Transition to lower amplitude flow/broad central CONUS upper level ridging will be in store for Sunday-Tuesday as a more disjointed upper pattern evolves across western CONUS with cutting off upper low across Baja of California. This pattern will be conducive for more progressive northern stream disturbances to affect the area Monday-Tuesday. Approach of these waves and broad low-mid level theta-e advection will support increasing rain chances Monday-Tuesday with some thunder also possible. Perhaps best chances of thunder will be Monday night into early Tuesday as MUCAPEs may tend to maximize in vicinity of warm frontal zone. No change to previous forecast in much above normal temps for Monday and Tuesday. A trend back to more seasonable temps appears more likely by the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

VFR through the forecast period. Deeper mixing providing low crossover temperatures, additionally with a gradual increase in high clouds overnight, to preclude BR/FG development late tonight. Veering east to southeast flow tomorrow ahead of approaching cold front.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Murphy SHORT TERM . Marsili LONG TERM . Marsili AVIATION . Murphy

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi197 min SSW 7 G 8.9 34°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi197 min N 2.9 G 2.9 37°F 37°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi24 minVar 510.00 miFair53°F35°F51%1022.1 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi22 minNW 310.00 miFair49°F39°F71%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW85NW6--3CalmCalmNW3W3CalmSW4CalmCalmW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW45
1 day ago46N8N8--43N54CalmCalmN3CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NE45N74
2 days ago6NW755--N4W4NW5NW6NW6
G15
3444N3NE4NE4CalmCalmE33E44N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.