Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 4:41 PM EDT (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 329 Pm Edt Tue Sep 17 2019
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. The water temperature off michigan city is 52 degrees...and 68 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201909180415;;937607 FZUS53 KIWX 171929 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 329 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-180415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 171956
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
356 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 342 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019
mostly clear skies are expected tonight, but some patchy fog may
redevelop overnight across the region. Low temperatures tonight
will drop into the mid to upper 50s. Mostly sunny skies are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures warming
into the lower to middle 80s. The next chance of rain is not
expected until Saturday and Sunday.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 342 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019
quiet weather to continue in the short term period with slowly
moderating temperatures into mid week.

Fog and stratus was slow to burn off today, with last of stratus
continuing to slowly dissipate across south central lower michigan
and across extreme southwest portions of the area. The main
forecast challenge tonight is on potential fog stratus
redevelopment for Wednesday morning. Overall synoptic setup is
somewhat similar tonight in comparison to last night, but slightly
less favorable hydrolapse profiles and slightly lower crossover
temps may tend to discourage dense fog formation. May have to
watch areas which were slower to erode stratus this afternoon
(far NE and far SW portions of forecast area) for perhaps best
chance of fog formation.

A couple of short waves will top ridge tonight into Wednesday
across the upper ms valley northern great lakes. This waves will
do little to suppress the background upper ridge across the area.

After some patchy morning fog, skies should be mostly sunny for
Wednesday with warmer conditions in the lower 80s for most areas.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 342 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019
longwave pattern will remain stagnant Wed night into Thursday with
blocking pattern persisting across the western atlantic. Slight
eastward progression of central CONUS ridge axis by Thursday will
allow for more noticeable warm up by Thursday afternoon when highs
in the mid 80s become more likely. Moisture transport will also be
on the slow increase by Thursday night into Friday as next large
scale upper across western CONUS shifts east. Medium range
guidance still differs in the handling of this next longwave
trough, with operational GFS dampening it more quickly in a more
progressive fashion into the weekend, while ec tends to be slower
and stronger. Given the large spread in guidance this energy
still off the bc canada coast, opted to not steer far from blended
guidance in regards to pops for Saturday-Sunday, with greatest
pops in the high chance low likely range from Saturday night into
Sunday. Still too early to get too depth in terms of severe
potential, but a good deal of question at this forecast distance
in terms of destabilization given what should be a fairly
expansive mid level thermal ridge in place. Some decent rainfall
amounts will be a possibility with potential of an efficient
frontal response, but details in this regard will depend on how
evolution of larger scale trough verifies. Cooler and less humid
weather moves in for early next week behind the front.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday morning)
issued at 112 pm edt Tue sep 17 2019
low clouds have been slow to erode this aftn with ksbnVFR... But
kfwa still MVFR. Expect kfwa to mix out later this aftn by around
19-20z. Surface high pressure over the gtlks region today will
shift east overnight as the upper level ridge axis becomes situ
over the gtlks by Wed afternoon. ExpectVFR conds later this aftn
through the fcst period. Winds will remain easterly through 18z
wed.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... T
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi41 min N 4.1 G 6 72°F 1021 hPa (-2.0)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi31 min N 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 69°F1 ft1020.6 hPa64°F
45168 24 mi31 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 69°F1021 hPa62°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi41 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 69°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi51 min NNE 9.9 G 9.9 70°F 66°F
45170 34 mi31 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 69°F1 ft67°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi41 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 1021 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi48 minSE 710.00 miFair79°F61°F54%1020.5 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi45 minESE 310.00 miFair77°F60°F56%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------33--E3------Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmE4--SE8SE7SE4E7E5SE7
1 day agoS5S4S3CalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalm--Calm3CalmNE3--3--N6N66
G15
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2 days agoW4SW8SW6SE3Calm----------------S9S4S9
G17
----SW9SW9SW9SW6SW95

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.