Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 12:17 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 422 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Mostly cloudy this morning, then partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 55 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 150811 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 411 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers diminishing today then a short dry period tonight.

- More showers with scattered storms at times Thursday through the middle of next week. Locally downpours possible, but severe storms are not expected through Saturday.

- Better chances for severe storms next week Monday through Wednesday.

- Highs in the 70s to low 80s into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A cluster of smaller systems were associated with the upper low that was drifting east over the Ohio River. Part of the energy with this system was over the forecast area and had produced locally heavy rainfall over 2" yesterday into last night. SPC mesoanalysis showed precipitable water values values ranged from 1.25 to 1.35 inches which were close to the 95th percentile for this time of year. Saturation was near 100% per HRRR and GFS BUFKIT sounding up to 250 mb. The atmosphere will remain very efficient in producing rain, although the upper level system will continue to accelerate east in reaction to teleconnections energy upstream. The next upper level system will reach the area Thursday and is expected to produce local downpours into early Saturday will basically have same environment as today. An EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) should arrive Sunday ahead another system in the series of upper level trofs as the main/longwave trof lingers over western North America. While is is still quite a ways out, initial thoughts include an environment that may be favorable for severe storms next week Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A slow moving upper level vort max across west central Indiana will continue to lead to unsettled weather and scattered to numerous showers across northern Indiana through daybreak.
Through time, center of this upper vort max should sag southeast allowing for a slight intrusion of drier low level air from central Lower Michigan. Through daybreak, MVFR cigs expected at KSBN, with IFR/lower end MVFR cigs at KFWA. Cigs in the 1-2k foot range should hold at KFWA through early afternoon before diurnal mixing improves cigs to 2-3k feet. An earlier improvement is anticipated at KSBN which will be in closer proximity to drier low level air across southern Lower Michigan.
Northeast winds around 10 knots will continue this period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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