Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Franklin Town, MA

KEY MESSAGES

- Period of showers late tonight across interior southern New England, with some snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night. A few rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu across the interior.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry and cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits and teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun, but a significant storm is unlikely.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Period of showers late tonight across interior southern New England, with some snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

Still a risk for some showers tonight, but thinking the primary focus is shifting north of our region, closer to the low pressure north of the Great Lakes. Given the relatively weak lift and mostly dry lower levels across our region, not expecting much precipitation. The primary window of concern is between about 10 PM-4 AM. As warm as we are, expecting mainly rain for the most likely type, with perhaps snow light snow across the higher elevations of the Berkshires and far northern Worcester Hills towards the NH border.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night. A few rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu across the interior.

A potent mid level shortwave should amplify a mid level trough to our west Wednesday night. This in turn will continue to boost temperatures across southern New England Wed into Wed night.
Expecting temperatures some 10-15 degrees above normal during this time. Some locations across RI and eastern MA could make a run at highs of 50F Wednesday.

Rainfall should be the main precipitation type given these temperatures. An approaching cold front late Wednesday night could lead to some snowfall mixing in across the Berkshires after midnight. By daybreak Thursday, it's possible that some light snow could expand as far east as the Worcester Hills.
Little snow accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps.
Dry and cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits and teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

As the low pressure lifts into Northern New England on Thursday a cold front swoops in ushering in a colder and drier airmass into SNE. There's still some question as to how quickly that cold air arrives, so low confidence on who may see some 40s stick around much of the day or not. Either way it will feel colder thanks to winds gusting 20-25 mph late in the day as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening low and the incoming ridge of high pressure.
CAA continues into early Friday with 925mb temps dropping to -15C before rebounding as heights rise toward the weekend. This means one night (Thursday night) of lows in the single digits and low teens.
Friday, highs only reach into the 20s with continued breezy winds.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun, but a significant storm is unlikely.

Rising mid level heights are brief as the high pressure quickly moves east and a mid level trough digs into the Great Lakes.
This places the region under warm SW flow and we'll see temps rise back into upper 30s and low 40s Saturday. A weak disturbance moving through may be enough to kick off some widely scattered low elevation rain or high elevation snow showers, but on the whole most locations should be dry. The core of the mid level low passes north into Canada; too soon to nail down exact details on what periods may have a better chance at some wet weather, but we continue to not expect a big storm system over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Very brief MVFR conditions possible across the interior between about 03-09Z in a few brief rain showers. Any snow showers will be confined to the very highest terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills and rather short-lived too. Modest LLJ developing will result in periods of SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots tonight near and southeast of the I-95 corridor. LLWS included for some terminals given winds at 850 mb on the order of 45 to 55 knots.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR for most. Areas MVFR and local IFR towards the Berkshires during the afternoon. Low risk for some rain showers as well.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR to start across the eastern half of southern New England. Areas MVFR with local IFR across the western half expanding east after midnight. Widespread MVFR with IFR across the higher terrain expected towards the Thursday morning push.
Chance of rain showers, with snow showers across the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. More widespread snow showers possible across the western half of southern New England late.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Low pressure moving across southeast Canada will result in an increasing S to SW wind across the waters. Gusts up to 30 kt possible. Rough seas expected to develop across the southern coastal waters as well, so Small Craft Advisories continue. A cold front should approach the waters late Wednesday night.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of freezing rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232-234-250.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ233.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.