Binghamton, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Binghamton, NY

June 20, 2024 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM
Moonrise 6:59 PM   Moonset 2:46 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Binghamton, NY
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 200336 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1136 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in the heat may not come until after the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
1130 PM Update:

Strong to severe thunderstorms have popped up along an apparent surface boundary extending from SW NY to just north of the Finger Lakes. Surface analysis suggests this boundary may extend further east than the current area of convection, north of Skaneateles and Syracuse to somewhere in northern Oneida County.
The storms have fired up in an area of weaker steering flow, and have been nearly stationary, staying just barely west of the CWA boundary so far. SPC mesoanalysis also indicates low level moisture pooling along the lake plain, roughly coincident with the boundary.

CAMS not really handling things too well, though a few did produce some convection further east than reality, and the ones that did suggest additional storms will fire up along the boundary near the Thruway in the next hour or two, but otherwise not move further east. But outflow boundaries from these storms, too far away to pick up on radar just yet, will propagate east, and could kick up additional isolated thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes and areas N and W of BGM overnight.

PoP grids have been increased in the far west, and along the apparent boundary near the Thruway over the next couple hours.
PoPs tapering off to the east in time considering the possibility of additional initiation off outflow boundaries as previously mentioned.

Outflow boundaries from this mess will almost certainly impact convection initiation later on Thursday.

955 PM Update:

Thunderstorms are now initiating along a convergence zone just west of our forecast area, across NW PA and SW NY. These storms are tapping into 2200 J/Kg of MLCAPE, with mid level lapse rates around 6.5C/Km.DCAPE values are still around 1100 J/kg out in this region. The CAMs are not handling this convective initiation well at this time. Forecast grids grids were updated to show a chance for thunderstorms redeveloping (along outflow)
further east into portions of our CWA; especially Steuben, Yates and Seneca counties over the next several hours. Main threat with these slow moving storms will be for isolated strong, gusty outflow winds and heavy rainfall.

745 PM Update:

Just a few, isolated thunderstorms on the radar early this evening. The majority of the activity has been across eastern Delaware and Otsego counties thus far. There is abundant instability out there, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg, and LIs of -8. Effective layer shear is rather weak around 20 kts over the western portion of the area. Looking at the latest water vapor and IR satellite loops, there are no real triggers for added lift to get organized convection going at this time. The CAMs, especially the latest 22z HRRR develop some scattered thunderstorm activity over the next few hours across Central NY.
So far the storms have been unable to push higher reflectivity cores up above the -20C (~25k ft agl) level...however we will continue to monitor any storms that can develop very closely considering the high amounts of instability, and DCAPE values of 1000+ J/KG, which is highly conducive to downbursts and localized strong winds.

Otherwise, tonight will be another muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to 70s over the region. Just like last night, downtown Syracuse may struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Thursday is another hot and humid day, and heat advisories remain in effect areawide. Scattered thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and there is a Slight Risk for severe storms.

230 PM Update:

Isolated convection will continue at times into tonight mainly extending from the western Finger Lakes to the Upper Mohawk Valley where lingering boundaries exist amongst better broad scale lift south of the prevailing westerlies. Diurnal stabilization should end best chances, but persistent high dewpoints will still provide fuel for any rogue meso convective system that rides the ridge later on. Not seeing any indications of this to be confident, but a primed atmosphere will do what it wants.

Ridge flattens further on Thursday with stronger westerlies expected to dip across northern NY. Once again, hot and humid conditions will prevail, however, confidence is higher that thunderstorms may be a little more intense and numerous than the past several days. Strong low level lapse rates will exist with max CAPE values likely nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. With the stronger flow aloft moving in, 0-6 km bulk shear will increase to around 20 to 25 knots, which should be enough to support a better organization of convection than today. Locally damaging winds will be the main threat. Also, PWATs will again be in the 99th percentile range and short Corfidi vectors of less than 10 knots suggest heavy down pours and back building thunderstorms will be possible, with a threat for localized flash flooding.

A continuation of warm and muggy conditions at night will continue Thursday night and with a weak stationary front in the area, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into the evening.

Lows in the 70s and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s will persist.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
250 PM Update...

High pressure recedes to the southwest with an upper level ridge resting over our region. Along this ridge a few disturbances move through with a weak stalled frontal system. This leads to the possibility for showers and thunderstorms to develop especially during peak heating hours. Although models are trending drier Friday morning, so pulled back on pops. Instability parameters show CAPE values up to 1,700 J/Kg with marginal wind shear. This suggests strong to severe storms are possible with isolated damaging wind being the primary threat. However, any slower- moving storms can produce heavy rainfall with PWAT values anywhere from 1.5 to nearly 2.0 inches across the area.
Placement of the frontal system, cloud cover and shower development will lead to a challenging temperature forecast for Friday. Highs are expected to range in the mid 80s to lower 90s in northeast PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Lows will follow this same pattern with overnight temperatures ranging in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area.

Quasi-stationary front lingers over the region on Saturday before lifting Saturday night. This allows additional showers and thunderstorms to develop especially during peak heating hours.
Depending on the timing of when the front lifts will impact the temperature forecast. As of now temperatures are forecasted to range higher in the mid to upper 80s west of I-81, with highs ranging in the low to mid 80s east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
250 PM Update...

Upper level ridge begins to break down on Sunday as an upper level trough starts to nudge into the region along with a surface cold front. This brings potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the system as moisture gets advected into our region. There is uncertainty in the timing of the frontal passage, it appears to move through Sunday night into Monday morning. Regardless cooler air will begin to filter in early next week providing relief to the region. Upper trough slowly tracks east Monday allowing another opportunity for shower and thunderstorms to develop under this pattern. Brief ridge along with surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday with dry conditions anticipated at this time. Models begin to diverge towards the end of the period, but another system could creep in by Wednesday.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Thunderstorms have been struggling to get going this afternoon but given the heat ahd humidity, there is still plenty of energy to develop thunderstorms this evening and tonight.
Anything that does form, will be isolated so left thunder out of the TAFs for now. ELM did have dew points drop lower this afternoon than yesterday so unless there is rain to fall before midnight, it will be harder to get fog formation.

Tomorrow is looking a little better for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening but once again the storms that form will be more scattered rather than numerous so confidence in their locations is too low to add to the TAFs after 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Spotty restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ062.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBGM GREATER BINGHAMTON/EDWIN A LINK FIELD,NY 8 sm37 minWSW 0510 smClear75°F66°F74%30.35
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Binghamton, NY,




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